20 replies to this topic

[Pot Odds RAC]

Casino Windsor
$1/$2 NL TxHE Two Villains are complete Donks

I have established myself as TAG. Up about a buy-in and a half

Hero ($250) Button
Villain 1 ($85) Small Blind
Villain 2 ($85) UTG

Several limpers to me and I look to see

I toss out a Button Limp Eliminator bet of $10

Two Donkey Villains (and one other random player) call

Flop


Villain 1 All-in for $75
Villain 2 All-in for $75
Random Player folds

These guys are pretty bad. Total calling stations, and now they're each all-in on the flop.

Hero is looking at a draw to the nut flush


Hero?

[LycoPoker54]

I think you have to call in this situation. Its hard to put them on a hand, but by the way you described them, it seems they would have raised preflop with pockets, although maybe not with 44 or 55. so the worst you are up against is 44 or 55, but that doesnt seem likely. there is already $280 in the pot, and it only costs you 1/3 of your chips to call. i would call here

[Pot Odds RAC]

I think you have to call in this situation. Its hard to put them on a hand, but by the way you described them, it seems they would have raised preflop with pockets, although maybe not with 44 or 55. so the worst you are up against is 44 or 55, but that doesnt seem likely. there is already $280 in the pot, and it only costs you 1/3 of your chips to call. i would call here

Only about $190 in the pot so far.

[LycoPoker54]

my mistake, i meant $190. i was distracted by the homerun derby, haha. it doesnt change my stance though, i still call here, as it is very hard to put the villians on hands and you have the nut flush draw

[Merby]

You're being asked to call $75 to win $190. Even if you could *only* win by catching your flush, you are priced in to call (another spade will fall roughly 1 in 3 times going to the river, you need 2:1 odds to call and you're getting 2.5:1). If these guys are the donkeys that you say they are, then perhaps you win with an ace too.

Call.

[David_Nicoson]

Final pot would be 75 x 3 + 40 = 260. We're trading 75 for our equity, so our break even win% is 75/260 = 28%.

Here's a fairly tight range.

CODE

Board: Qs 5s 4s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0: 22.652%  22.65% 00.00%              38864             0.00   { AsTc }
Hand 1: 38.674%  38.67% 00.00%              66353             0.00   { 55-44, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, 8s6s, 7s6s, KsQd, KsQh }
Hand 2: 38.674%  38.67% 00.00%              66353             0.00   { 55-44, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, 8s6s, 7s6s, KsQd, KsQh }

And here's sort of an ideal situation.

CODE

Board: Qs 5s 4s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     45.847%      45.85%     00.00%               2484             0.00   { AsTc }
Hand 1:     27.076%      00.00%     27.08%                  0          1467.00   { KsQd }
Hand 2:     27.076%      00.00%     27.08%                  0          1467.00   { KQs, KQo }

I think their real range makes this close enough it doesn't matter much either way. I think the caller probably has at least two pair, so I think I'll lean toward folding.

[mtdesmoines]

Casino Windsor
$1/$2 NL TxHE Two Villains are complete Donks

I have established myself as TAG. Up about a buy-in and a half

Hero ($250) Button
Villain 1 ($85) Small Blind
Villain 2 ($85) UTG

Several limpers to me and I look to see

I toss out a Button Limp Eliminator bet of $10

Two Donkey Villains (and one other random player) call

Flop


Villain 1 All-in for $75
Villain 2 All-in for $75
Random Player folds

These guys are pretty bad. Total calling stations, and now they're each all-in on the flop.

Hero is looking at a draw to the nut flush
Hero?

I like situations like this. If they have spade draws, your high cards are looking good. If they have sets/pairs, well, then they don't have spades which puts more in the deck, and they're stealing each others' outs to a boat when you hit the flush. Best part of it all ... I just bet one of them is drawing with the Ks. If you get beat, grind if back from them. If you win, change the game to 10/20. They'll come along and you'll "big stack" them to death.

[Pot Odds RAC]

My thinking was that one of them had a made straight and the other (the caller) something like two pair or perhaps a set.

[David_Nicoson]

My thinking was that one of them had a made straight and the other (the caller) something like two pair or perhaps a set.

I really can't read those darn little cards.

[project240]

My thinking was that one of them had a made straight

Isn't the flop Q-5-4??

[project240]

Is the OP correct?

[TB17]

I call all day.

[Pot Odds RAC]

Isn't the flop Q-5-4??

Meant to say "Flush"

[mtdesmoines]

Meant to say "Flush"

Nice recovery.

[Pot Odds RAC]

Nice recovery.

Whatever.

I decided to go with my read, which so far on the night had been serving me pretty well. I just really couldn't put the first betting player on anything other than a made flush. I figured this was taking two of my outs and so I folded.

Those of you who said: "Call" had a better read than I did.

Bad Guy #1 Showed: 9 9
Bad Guy #2 Showed: 5 4

I can't make this stuff up.

We know that the spade came on the Turn (else I'd never have made this thread)

Ah well. I'll file this under "Lesson Learned". Even without "Results Based Thinking" there was enough $ in the pot that I should probably have called, even with my read. It was at least close enough that the Fold wasn't horrible.


This is the Lesson Summary:

I like situations like this. If they have spade draws, your high cards are looking good. If they have sets/pairs, well, then they don't have spades which puts more in the deck, and they're stealing each others' outs to a boat when you hit the flush. Best part of it all ... I just bet one of them is drawing with the Ks. If you get beat, grind if back from them. If you win, change the game to 10/20. They'll come along and you'll "big stack" them to death.

[David_Nicoson]

CODE

Board: Qs 5s 4s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0: 38.206% 38.21%     00.00%                345             0.00   { AsTc }
Hand 1: 14.175% 14.17%     00.00%                128             0.00   { 9d9h }
Hand 2: 47.619% 47.62%     00.00%                430             0.00   { 5d4d }

A call is worth $260 x 0.38 - 75 = +$24 in EV.

ISAP.

[Lavitz]

Regardless of results, if you have these guys pinned as calling stations, isn't this a fold? Your ace will almost never be good by itself and usually one will have a flush with the other having TP/set. Worst case scenario is that one has a set for the redraw to the boat and other has flopped a flush (killing 2 of your spade outs) which I think is a distinct possibility.

Even with their current hands the EV is only $+24. Someone pokerstove one having a set and the other having flopped a flush.

[David_Nicoson]

CODE

Board: Qs 5s 4s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0: 22.481%  22.48% 00.00%                609             0.00   { AsTc }
Hand 1: 35.548%  35.55% 00.00%                963             0.00   { 44 }
Hand 2: 41.971%  41.97% 00.00%               1137             0.00   { Ks2s }

[Merby]

Regardless of results, if you have these guys pinned as calling stations, isn't this a fold? Your ace will almost never be good by itself and usually one will have a flush with the other having TP/set. Worst case scenario is that one has a set for the redraw to the boat and other has flopped a flush (killing 2 of your spade outs) which I think is a distinct possibility.

Even with their current hands the EV is only $+24. Someone pokerstove one having a set and the other having flopped a flush.

If they're calling stations, then you're calling with the worst hand, but probably with the price to improve (it's highly unlikely that they *both* have flushes already... but possible)

Nevertheless, there are many different types of *donkeys*. Some are calling stations, yes. But others simply (vastly) overvalue their hands. In the latter case, folding here is ---EV.

[David_Nicoson]

If they're calling stations, then you're calling with the worst hand, but probably with the price to improve (it's highly unlikely that they *both* have flushes already... but possible)

Nevertheless, there are many different types of *donkeys*. Some are calling stations, yes. But others simply (vastly) overvalue their hands. In the latter case, folding here is ---EV.

Pot Odds did refer to them as calling stations in the OP. The 99 is doing something uncharacteristic to that description in this particular hand, imho.