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Postflop Bullet Play


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#1 Acid_Knight

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 06:24 AM

5/10 NL, 9 handed

Stacks:
Hero: 1K
Solid Player on button: 3K
Good LAG player in MP: $1600

Hero is in CO with A icon_suit_heart.gif A icon_suit_club.gif

LAG open limps from MP1, Hero raises to $60, button smooth calls, blinds fold and LAG calls.

Flop (3 players) $195

T icon_suit_heart.gif 9 icon_suit_heart.gif 5 icon_suit_club.gif

LAG checks, Hero checks, button bets $200, LAG raises to $500, Hero?

Reads: The Hero in the hand has a fairly solid image and has played few hands. The button shares a similar image, but hasn't been at the table with the hero that long yet. The LAG player in EP has shown a willingness to push draws and raise with air, but it is often hard to distinguish when he is pushing a draw or a made hand.

#2 mtdesmoines

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 06:32 AM

QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Thursday, July 5th, 2007, 6:24 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
5/10 NL, 9 handed

Stacks:
Hero: 1K
Solid Player on button: 3K
Good LAG player in MP: $1600

Hero is in CO with A icon_suit_heart.gif A icon_suit_club.gif

LAG open limps from MP1, Hero raises to $60, button smooth calls, blinds fold and LAG calls.

Flop (3 players) $195

T icon_suit_heart.gif 9 icon_suit_heart.gif 5 icon_suit_club.gif

LAG checks, Hero checks, button bets $200, LAG raises to $500, Hero?

Reads: The Hero in the hand has a fairly solid image and has played few hands. The button shares a similar image, but hasn't been at the table with the hero that long yet. The LAG player in EP has shown a willingness to push draws and raise with air, but it is often hard to distinguish when he is pushing a draw or a made hand.


I think I'm willing to lose my money here vs. a potential triple up.

Push.

gg if one of these clowns has a set.


EDIT: I really don't think anyone has a set. LAG might have hit a suited connector ... QJ or hearts or something. We have one of his outs. I think LAG may be drawing and button got cute with QQ. Reads matter here. But I still push. I play AA to the death because I got them a month ago, and won't get them again until September. I already know I'll play them to the death then, too. LAGs do this with JhJx, too.
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#3 AaronHoward

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 06:35 AM

i think this is a fold, but i do think one of them is on a king high flush draw with maybe kq of hearts or something, id say ur up against flush draw and set of 99's
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#4 Acid_Knight

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 06:41 AM

QUOTE (mtdesmoines @ Thursday, July 5th, 2007, 7:32 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think I'm willing to lose my money here vs. a potential triple up.

Push.

gg if one of these clowns has a set.

What are you putting people on if you're pushing here? You have two opponents who have shown a lot of interest in this flop. Also, neither opponent seems to be stupid, they are just good players with differing styles.

#5 mtdesmoines

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 06:47 AM

QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Thursday, July 5th, 2007, 6:41 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
What are you putting people on if you're pushing here? You have two opponents who have shown a lot of interest in this flop. Also, neither opponent seems to be stupid, they are just good players with differing styles.


Edited my original. (knew you'd ask).
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#6 David_Nicoson

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 06:57 AM

Wait for a safe turn? icon_doh.gif

If I'm the button, I think I reraise preflop with QQ or JJ. Hmmm.

I'm often willing to take one pair all the way against a draw-heavy board, but because there are two players getting aggressive here I suspect one pair is no good against one of them.

I'll fold quietly.
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#7 dgostate8

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 06:59 AM

Why did the hero check that flop? If the hero had tossed out a bet of say...150, he'd have a better idea of where he's at in this hand. That being said, I suppose it's pretty easy for MP to have 55 and the button to have OhJh or KhQh. If that's the case, fold and curse at both of them for flopping so big.
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#8 David_Nicoson

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:01 AM

The A icon_suit_heart.gif in the hero's hand is interesting here. We have the backdoor redraw, but more importantly we know we're not up against a hand like A icon_suit_heart.gif Q icon_suit_heart.gif with the mistaken impression that he has the flush draw and two live overs. The most likely flush draws are therefore hands with straight outs as well.
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#9 tskillz187

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:02 AM

Are you hero? I think checking that flop kind of sucks. We have no idea how strong they are and our hand strength is disguised. I think hero checked to try and get a C/R in and Sklansky says you can't fold if you get action when you were trying to induce action, or something along those lines. I think Sklansky is wrong though.

Having the Ah is bad here IMO. It makes it less likely that someone is drawing at the flush and more likely that somebody has a made hand, because of this I reluctantly fold. Lags small raise is so weak it's scary to me, putting him on a hand here is tough, maybe something like 55 or 8Jhh. Other hands would seem to be raisers PF being the first one to enter and all.
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#10 Acid_Knight

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:02 AM

QUOTE (dgostate8 @ Thursday, July 5th, 2007, 7:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Why did the hero check that flop?

The flop was checked because I'm not the Hero here. I'd never check this flop.

#11 Acid_Knight

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:05 AM

QUOTE (tskillz187 @ Thursday, July 5th, 2007, 8:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Are you hero? I think checking that flop kind of sucks. We have no idea how strong they are and our hand strength is disguised. I think hero checked to try and get a C/R in and Sklansky says you can't fold if you get action when you were trying to induce action, or something along those lines. I think Sklansky is wrong though.

Having the Ah is bad here IMO. It makes it less likely that someone is drawing at the flush and more likely that somebody has a made hand, because of this I reluctantly fold. Lags small raise is so weak it's scary to me, putting him on a hand here is tough, maybe something like 55 or 8Jhh. Other hands would seem to be raisers PF being the first one to enter and all.

I really believe that Sklansky is very wrong too in that regard. Just becuase you were going for a check/raise and tried to get tricky, doesn't mean that you can't inadvertantly back into A LOT of information that leads you to believe that your hand is no good.

Very good assessment by you and David (Nicoson, not Sklansky smile.gif ) about the significance of us holding the A icon_suit_heart.gif and knowing that neither opponent is betting the NFD.

#12 David_Nicoson

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:07 AM

QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Thursday, July 5th, 2007, 11:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The flop was checked because I'm not the Hero here. I'd never check this flop.

It would make sense if the LAG acted behind him and he was going for a check-raise.
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#13 mtdesmoines

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:07 AM

QUOTE (David_Nicoson @ Thursday, July 5th, 2007, 6:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Wait for a safe turn? icon_doh.gif

If I'm the button, I think I reraise preflop with QQ or JJ. Hmmm.

I'm often willing to take one pair all the way against a draw-heavy board, but because there are two players getting aggressive here I suspect one pair is no good against one of them.

I'll fold quietly.


We can't put the LAG on a set; I think he'd raise UTG with a pair, trying to thin the herd and play heads up with a legit -MIDDLE PAIR - hand. He limps with his drawing hand, trying to trap the field with a gin flop, or, heads up with a raiser that he can close PF action on. Further, I think LAG would smooth call a set, trying to trap a raiser with overs. Lag can't really put you on hearts, raising $60. You've got overs, and he knows it. So I think LAG is drawing.

A TAG button probably would dump almost any hand that directly connects with this flop after you raised. A TAG button might smooth call with QQ, hoping to push you out with a non-ace flop and going head to head with the LAG.

That's my thinking, but it's (like) Monday.

EDIT, oh, and I also thought about the implications of the heart in our hand. I think the interest in this flop tells us that a lot of hearts may lie in hands and we're relatively safe from LAG's heart-connected draw.
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#14 Mercury69

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:21 AM

Well, I don't play this high, but...

I'm thinking your opps have hit at least a pair

LAG = KQh QJh, or Q8h (!)...hey, he's laggy...
Rock = JTo, with the J probably being a heart

I'd advocate a shove to isolate the lagtard regardless of his range. If the rock wants to play his (most likely) top pair, fine so be it.

Worst case scenario: The lagtard has T9o for 2 pair. I doubt either villain has a set, as the betting has been too straight-forward.
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#15 Acid_Knight

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:24 AM

QUOTE (mtdesmoines @ Thursday, July 5th, 2007, 8:07 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
We can't put the LAG on a set; I think he'd raise UTG with a pair, trying to thin the herd and play heads up with a legit -MIDDLE PAIR - hand. He limps with his drawing hand, trying to trap the field with a gin flop, or, heads up with a raiser that he can close PF action on. Further, I think LAG would smooth call a set, trying to trap a raiser with overs. Lag can't really put you on hearts, raising $60. You've got overs, and he knows it. So I think LAG is drawing.

A TAG button probably would dump almost any hand that directly connects with this flop after you raised. A TAG button might smooth call with QQ, hoping to push you out with a non-ace flop and going head to head with the LAG.

That's my thinking, but it's (like) Monday.

EDIT, oh, and I also thought about the implications of the heart in our hand. I think the interest in this flop tells us that a lot of hearts may lie in hands and we're relatively safe from LAG's heart-connected draw.

LAG can't have 55 here? That would fit really well. He's not gonna slowplay a set on that board becuase it's so dangerous and he wouldn't want to let 3 people see a turn card. This isn't a limit game and it's really uncommon for anyone to "take one off" in a raised pot with overcards, especially when it'd be unlikely that either overcard is good enough to win you the hand.

The TAG button's range is largely made up of middle pairs, like JJ, TT and 99.

You also keep talking about the LAG having suited connectors. What about 78hh, QJhh, T9xx. We are in terrible shape against these ranges.

If I'm reading correctly, your edit basically says that they both have heart draws and are therefore blocking each other? That seems waaay too optimistic if you ask me.

#16 Acid_Knight

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:25 AM

QUOTE (Mercury69 @ Thursday, July 5th, 2007, 8:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I doubt either villain has a set, as the betting has been too straight-forward.

I don't understand the reasoning behind this.

#17 dgostate8

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:31 AM

AK, have I ever told you that you're my hero?
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#18 tskillz187

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:31 AM

QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Thursday, July 5th, 2007, 8:25 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Are you the good LAG player? Cuz I don't like his small C/R much either. And you call yourself LAG so the button doesn't seem like you either. Who pays attention to pots they aren't in? Lame.
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#19 David_Nicoson

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:34 AM

QUOTE (mtdesmoines @ Thursday, July 5th, 2007, 11:07 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
We can't put the LAG on a set; I think he'd raise UTG with a pair, trying to thin the herd and play heads up with a legit -MIDDLE PAIR - hand. He limps with his drawing hand, trying to trap the field with a gin flop, or, heads up with a raiser that he can close PF action on. Further, I think LAG would smooth call a set, trying to trap a raiser with overs. Lag can't really put you on hearts, raising $60. You've got overs, and he knows it. So I think LAG is drawing.

That seems logical enough. I'm not inferring as many details about the LAG's tendencies. I expect him to bet and raise often, with either a draw or a big hand.

Even when we know he's drawing, almost anything he can have here is going to win 40% of the time.

QUOTE
A TAG button probably would dump almost any hand that directly connects with this flop after you raised. A TAG button might smooth call with QQ, hoping to push you out with a non-ace flop and going head to head with the LAG.

If I'm the button, I'm calling with 55, 99, TT, T9s, JQs, and maybe smaller suited connectors like 56s, 67s, and 78s.
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#20 dgostate8

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 07:36 AM

QUOTE (tskillz187 @ Thursday, July 5th, 2007, 8:31 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Are you the good LAG player? Cuz I don't like his small C/R much either.


If LAG has 55, I love that CR. The button is probably not getting away from his hand and if a scare card comes, LAG can fold and not have to worry about having invested everything, but if a card that is likely to have missed the button comes, then he can fire big and take down the pot that he worked so hard to build.
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