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Turn Decision With Pair + Fd


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#1 aim786

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 10:57 AM

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with 7 icon_suit_club.gif 6 icon_suit_club.gif
UTG raises, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 2 icon_suit_club.gif K icon_suit_club.gif 4 icon_suit_heart.gif (6.6SB, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: 6 icon_suit_spade.gif (4.8BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets, Hero...

UTG is 35/22/1
Button is 53/18/1.5

Raising turn or calling?

#2 Zach6668

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 11:26 AM

Range on button is important...

We could easily be ahead of him, and UTG wouldn't check here without a K.

I love a raise here, actually.

We're easily ahead of Button, although not always. His stats, he would have raised a K on the flop, I think. But we can fold a better hand from UTG (77-QQ). I would bet the river UI HU vs button, but check it and probably fold 3 ways.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#3 CoranMoran

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 11:41 AM

I raise the turn.

There are 6 big bets in the pot already.
At this point, attempting to keep the 3rd player in the pot so that your drawing hand can win more does not seem necessary.
Because of your relative position to the current bettor, you can't hope to maximize your value from this extra opponent if you make your hand.

You learned a lot on the turn.
- The 6 was unlikely to help either of your opponents.
- You spiked 2nd pair.
- The PFR told us that he had less than Top Pair.

My read:
UTG has a pair (QQ-77) or missed big cards (AQ-A8).

Button's bet does not convince me that he has a made hand of any sort.
He could easily be using his position to take a stab at this pot after everyone showed weakness.
And we can use this to our advantage.

UTG is very likely going to call 1 bet to see the river.
But he will be almost forced to lay down his hand to 2 bets.
And getting a better pair to fold would be huge for us.
Even if he only has a missed Ace, we would love for him to fold his overcard outs (since both of his cards are likely over our 6's).

With UTG out of the way, our hand has a greater chance of winning.
If Button was bluffing, we are in great shape.
If he was not bluffing, we may actually get him to fold a better hand (QQ-77) as well.
And even if he does not fold, we have many outs to pass him up.

I think raising the turn greatly increases the chances of winning this pot.
And I think it is well worth the extra be invested.


--CM

#4 CoranMoran

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 11:43 AM

QUOTE
and UTG wouldn't check here with a K.


FYP

#5 mikeysong

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 11:53 AM

what the minus ev machine said (and coran)

#6 Moneyball16

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 12:06 PM

Say UTG fold and button calls what do we do on the river?

#7 Zach6668

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 02:53 PM

QUOTE (CoranMoran @ Tuesday, July 3rd, 2007, 3:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
FYP

Ah yes, ty.

QUOTE (mikeysong @ Tuesday, July 3rd, 2007, 3:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
what the minus ev machine said (and coran)

LMAO

QUOTE (Moneyball16 @ Tuesday, July 3rd, 2007, 4:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Say UTG fold and button calls what do we do on the river?

Really depends. Obv I'm betting any card that gives us the flush or two pair/trips.

I think c/c'ing would be interesting as he seems like a bet monkey, when we don't improve.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#8 aim786

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 03:05 PM

QUOTE (Moneyball16 @ Tuesday, July 3rd, 2007, 1:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Say UTG fold and button calls what do we do on the river?


Easy c/c situation then imo. If he peeled turn light, he's very likely folding to a river bet, but may bet it if I check to him. If he called with a K, then I lose 1 bet either way.

#9 sabes99

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 03:57 PM

i would have raised the flop i think and avoided the situation altogether, you might have gotten an A-Q or something from UTG out of the way

but as played, i make the raise on the turn, UTG probably has A-Q or a hand like Q-Q or J-J, and the button could have a similar hand...by raising there's a small chance you just win it right here, and even though most of the time you won't you have a ton of outs to beat/bluff either or both opponents...i think this spot is tailor made for a semi-bluff
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#10 aim786

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Posted 03 July 2007 - 05:43 PM

QUOTE (sabes99 @ Tuesday, July 3rd, 2007, 4:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
i would have raised the flop i think and avoided the situation altogether, you might have gotten an A-Q or something from UTG out of the way

but as played, i make the raise on the turn, UTG probably has A-Q or a hand like Q-Q or J-J, and the button could have a similar hand...by raising there's a small chance you just win it right here, and even though most of the time you won't you have a ton of outs to beat/bluff either or both opponents...i think this spot is tailor made for a semi-bluff


Raising the flop does not accomplish anything for my hand. I basically have to carry out an expensive semi bluff to show profit. With a drawing hand, you usually want as many players in the pot as possible, so c/c the flop multiway to induce a call from the 3rd player is clearly the best play imo.

The turn makes the hand interesting, since now I actually have a made hand as well. If I had not caught the 6 on the turn, I would definitely c/c again, because now I really need both players to fold a good % of the time for a turn raise to be correct. But since I paired up, I have some showdown value and will still be able to win the pot w/o having to hit my flush. This is'nt quite a semi bluff turn raise, more of a protecting my hand raise.

#11 CoranMoran

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Posted 05 July 2007 - 11:08 AM

QUOTE (Moneyball16 @ Tuesday, July 3rd, 2007, 1:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Say UTG fold and button calls what do we do on the river?


I check-call the river with my likely 3rd pair.
A bet would only be made for the sake of a bluff.
And a bluff will accomplish little on the river.

QUOTE
i would have raised the flop i think and avoided the situation altogether,


The draws aren't enough to raise the flop for value.
And since we are out of position against multiple opponents, our fold equity isn't good enough.

Aganist a single opponent, a check-raise semi-bluff is playable.
But I have learned to wait until the turn even in those situaitons.

--cm




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