Big Slick

[Money022 0]

The villian makes a 3xbb raise in EP after one limper which doesn't make me think he's all that strong here. Then he reraises me all-in. To me it reeks of a hand like QQ/JJ. At the same time, he know's he only getting called by AA/KK and possibly AK. Thoughts?PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)SB ($50.90)BB ($50)UTG ($41.50)UTG+1 ($49.50)MP1 ($100.45)Hero ($49)CO ($46.15)Button ($44.95)Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, A. UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 raises to $1.5, Hero raises to $4.5, 4 folds, UTG folds, MP1 raises to $100.45, Hero ???

[Zach6668 513]

Easy fold.The dead money in the pot isn't enough to offset the times this isn't a coinflip.

[dgostate8 0]

simple, do you want to flip a coin here or not? you do not have him beat, there's a slim chance he has AK, if you feel you're a better player just fold and bust him later.

[Zach6668 513]

simple, do you want to flip a coin here or not? you do not have him beat, there's a slim chance he has AK, if you feel you're a better player just fold and bust him later.

For the record, that's not a valid reason for folding.Each hand in a cash game is independent. If you have an edge, you shouldn't be passing it up to "wait for a better spot".That's a tournament mentality, which in itself is flawed.In a cash game, you should be making the decision that results in the highest EV. You shouldn't fold any +EV situation, essentially.The reason I say fold is that I think he's got AA/KK too often to make calling here profitable, especially since we practically never have him dominated.I should probably do some EV calculations, but I'm too lazy.Ok, quickly... there's $9.50 in the pot before his raise which puts us in. His raise is $44.50 because of our starting stack. This means we're calling $44.50 into a pot of $54. This gives us 1.213-1 odds. That means we need 45% equity in this spot to breakeven.Just using card combinations, we aren't even close to that:

46,232,208  games	 0.031 secs	 1,491,361,548  games/secBoard: Dead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	60.215%	  44.09% 	16.13% 		  20381624 	  7456889.50   { JJ+, AKs, AKo }Hand 1: 	39.785%	  23.66% 	16.13% 		  10936805 	  7456889.50   { AdKc }

So fold for these reasons, not because you think you're passing up a +EV opportunity to get a better one later.

[Money022 0]

Do you guys really think AA/KK really plays it this fast. If he holds that, then he has to figure he's a favorite. I understand that if he has a hand like QQ-TT then I'm still looking at a coinflip, which isn't ideal for cash games.

[Zach6668 513]

Do you guys really think AA/KK really plays it this fast. If he holds that, then he has to figure he's a favorite. I understand that if he has a hand like QQ-TT then I'm still looking at a coinflip, which isn't ideal for cash games.

He has to literally have AA or KK here less than 0.688% of the time (assuming his range is AK, QQ, JJ) for us to breakeven.

[Naismith 0]

I think this is almost always AQ.Zach, I think you should write a post about winning money vs pots and "waiting for a better spot" and then sticky it.

[Snamuh 0]

Insta-fold.

[Lavitz 0]

Fold. Easily.

[Seany Gee 0]

personally i dont like the re-raise pre flop with AK, the hand needs help, i like to see the flop as i think the hand is often overplayed pre-flopbut seeing as you have raised and he has pushed i like folding.

[Verdimme 0]

To me this is never AQ. You are either flipping or dominated badly, and I think the latter is the case most of the time. Fold.

[krup24 0]

I think this is almost always AQ.

huheasy fold

[dms26 3]

I don't think you have enough invested to call. You're hoping for a coin flip and being a slight underdog, I fold.

[trystero 0]

personally i dont like the re-raise pre flop with AK, the hand needs help, i like to see the flop as i think the hand is often overplayed pre-flopbut seeing as you have raised and he has pushed i like folding.

The reraise is fine - it allows Hero to build a pot with likely the best hand, to take control of the action and therefore win UI on the flop or take it down right now, and to better define villain's range. Folding here is standard though.

[Craigdog 0]

fold, you are at best even money for your entire buy in.

[David_Nicoson 1]

huheasy fold

I took his post as a thought experiment. How often is the AQ? Very seldom. So once you think of it in those terms, it's clear that this is a fold.

[Naismith 0]

huheasy fold

Sorry, I was joking in response to Zach's posts about how often this needs to not be AA or KK. I figured everyone would know this is almost never AQ.Usually AJ or AT.

[David_Nicoson 1]

Sorry, I was joking in response to Zach's posts about how often this needs to not be AA or KK. I figured everyone would know this is almost never AQ.Usually AJ or AT.

[Zach6668 513]

Sorry, I was joking in response to Zach's posts about how often this needs to not be AA or KK. I figured everyone would know this is almost never AQ.Usually AJ or AT.

Fwiw, that percentage about it being AA or KK, is actually the right number. If it's AA, KK less than that, and the rest of his range is JJ,QQ,AK, then we can call, lol. If not, it's a fold.

[David_Nicoson 1]

Fwiw, that percentage about it being AA or KK, is actually the right number. If it's AA, KK less than that, and the rest of his range is JJ,QQ,AK, then we can call, lol. If not, it's a fold.

I thought you were way off at first, but you're right: it's almost a fold just because of the 55/45 difference between under pairs and AK.

[Roberts2003 0]

personally i dont like the re-raise pre flop with AK, the hand needs help, i like to see the flop as i think the hand is often overplayed pre-flopbut seeing as you have raised and he has pushed i like folding.

to not reraise this preflop is badhaha, im a donk, so i would callllllllllllseriously, i would thoughthis is where not losing a buy in can help your psyche

[Acid_Knight 2]

This is a fairly straightforward fold.The ONLY hand that we could even consider to be in his range that we dominate is AQ and that hand seems really unlikely. There's no money in the pot to be evening out the times that he shows up with AA or KK and we're a slight dog against every other hand in his range.

[Roberts2003 0]

i think he very rarely has AA or KK. but i also love getting all in preflop with AK. call it a weakness.i think its 99 or AQ most often

[Acid_Knight 2]

i think he very rarely has AA or KK. but i also love getting all in preflop with AK. call it a weakness.i think its 99 or AQ most often

It is a big weakness. AK is a piece of trash in cash games when facing all-in preflop situations. I agree that it's very rarely AA or KK, but it is sometimes. Zach pointed out that "sometimes" has to be such a small portion of the time here to make this -EV since there's no dead money in the pot already.If you're doing it for Metagame reasons and your overall image (assuming you're playing with people who play with you regularly) then that's one thing. At a 1/2 NL type game, metagame considerations should be pretty much zero and you should play each hand mostly in a vaccuum.

[Roberts2003 0]

It is a big weakness. AK is a piece of trash in cash games when facing all-in preflop situations. I agree that it's very rarely AA or KK, but it is sometimes. Zach pointed out that "sometimes" has to be such a small portion of the time here to make this -EV since there's no dead money in the pot already.If you're doing it for Metagame reasons and your overall image (assuming you're playing with people who play with you regularly) then that's one thing. At a 1/2 NL type game, metagame considerations should be pretty much zero and you should play each hand mostly in a vaccuum.

thats definitely a big part of it. if you have that huge LAG image no one is going to go out of their way to bully you at the table. i just dont think people would be that dumb to play AA or KK this way. and maybe he doesnt want to get outplayed preflop so he sticks it in with AQ, AJ. in my mind, we are either a coinflip or 3 to 1 favorite here. i call and rebuy if i lose.