ctcarton

Here is the kicker, if you DON'T flip the coin with the 67% shooter you have NO CHANCE to get the $5000. That would be lowering your expectatiion to... 0! By accepting the 50-50 bet, you will give youself an opportunity to make an additional bet where you are a favorite.This is where the analogy breaks down. DC was confident that you would reload and try him again eventually. And you probably will, if you haven't yet. That means his EV stays higher if he refuses the coin flip.

Ahh, it's a type of rummy. There are lots of other rummy variations that you might enjoy too.