36 replies to this topic

[CobaltBlue]

Bodog 3/6 NLHE (6-handed)UTG $722.36Cobalt $616CO $635Button $992SB $1418BB $552Cobalt is MP w/ two cards. My image is TAG. UTG is LAG. CO is a TAG regular. Button is a loose-passive fish. SB is loose-passive. BB is weak-tight.Pre-flop:UTG raises to $22.36, Cobalt calls, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 foldFlop ($95): (4 players)SB checks, UTG checks, Cobalt bets $60, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 foldTurn ($215): (2 players)SB checks, Cobalt bets $120, SB callsRiver ($435): (2 players)SB checks, Cobalt goes all-in for $414, SB ?What kind of hand do we need to call Cobalt?

[BaseJester]

Something that can beat a bluff. Pair of tens or better.I wouldn't take this line.

[Zach6668]

SB has to have a missed draw here a lot. I can't imagine calling 3 barrels with one pair here, and I can't imagine him not putting in more action, or checking the river with two pair or better, even for a passive player.

[Sheiky]

A high or better because you acctually have no cards?

[SwolyswoND]

I'm a tight player, but I cant call down with anything less than decent two pair here. I hate stacking off even with TPTK when I'm the one calling instead of betting. Given how unlikely most Tx or Jx two pair hands are here, i think I need JT. Of course I'm raising JT on that flop anyway, so personally youre either up against missed spades, missed OESD, or a set, imo.

[Acid_Knight]

CobaltBlue, on Wednesday, July 30th, 2008, 12:38 AM, said:

Bodog 3/6 NLHE (6-handed)UTG $722.36Cobalt $616CO $635Button $992SB $1418BB $552Cobalt is MP w/ two cards. My image is TAG. UTG is LAG. CO is a TAG regular. Button is a loose-passive fish. SB is loose-passive. BB is weak-tight.Pre-flop:UTG raises to $22.36, Cobalt calls, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 foldFlop ($95): (4 players)SB checks, UTG checks, Cobalt bets $60, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 foldTurn ($215): (2 players)SB checks, Cobalt bets $120, SB callsRiver ($435): (2 players)SB checks, Cobalt goes all-in for $414, SB ?What kind of hand do we need to call Cobalt?

I would imagine your raise for flatting a normal UTG raiser includes a lot of suited connectors and small-medium pairs. Since the SB's range is mostly a draw or a 1 pair hand here, I would imagine that most of your shoving range is 2 pair (JT, 45, 46, 56) or sets. The alternative to that is a missed draw yourself. I would think that if the SB chose to take this line with QQ-AA, then he should fold the river since the only thing in your range that he beats is a missed draw or an overvalued hand like AJ, which I don't think happens too often. I guess if his hand is top pair or better, it's really underrepped, which might lead him to call, but I just can't imagine it being too profitable.Ok, modify that. I thought it was UTG who called the flop and turn. Since it was the loose passive SB, I would think that your value shoving range is probably AJ+ and maybe KJ+. So, he can call with hands that beat that or whatever he wants if he thinks you're bluffing a lot, which given your read of his, I doubt is the case.

[Dictius]

That bet on the river would look very suspicious to me if I had noticed that you usually put out 1/2 - 2/3 value bets rather than close to pot. We need to win ~30% of the time to breakeven.You are probably bluffing missed spades or something some % of the time, so I think your range isText results appended to pokerstove.txt 34 games 0.005 secs 6,800 games/secBoard: 5d Ts Js 4h 6cDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 70.588% 70.59% 00.00% 24 0.00 { JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, 55, AJs, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, Js9s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, AJo }Hand 1: 29.412% 29.41% 00.00% 10 0.00 { Th9h }So I wouldn't call you with a T, even if I thought you were bluffing missed spades a lot because it would be marginal at best and I'm probably overestimating the amount of times you are bluffing.Board: 5d Ts Js 4h 6cDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 34.615% 23.08% 11.54% 6 3.00 { JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, 55, AJs, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, Js9s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, AJo }Hand 1: 65.385% 53.85% 11.54% 14 3.00 { AhJh } 28 games 0.005 secs 5,600 games/secBoard: 5d Ts Js 4h 6cDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 64.286% 64.29% 00.00% 18 0.00 { JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, 55, AJs, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, Js9s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, AJo }Hand 1: 35.714% 35.71% 00.00% 10 0.00 { Jh9h }Call with AJ and marginal call with J9. It really comes down to how often you are bluffing.

[CobaltBlue]

Dictius, on Wednesday, July 30th, 2008, 8:17 PM, said:

That bet on the river would look very suspicious to me if I had noticed that you usually put out 1/2 - 2/3 value bets rather than close to pot.

If I have less than the pot in my stack and want to bet, I usually just shove.

[Moneyball16]

Dictius, on Wednesday, July 30th, 2008, 8:17 PM, said:

That bet on the river would look very suspicious to me if I had noticed that you usually put out 1/2 - 2/3 value bets rather than close to pot. We need to win ~30% of the time to breakeven.You are probably bluffing missed spades or something some % of the time, so I think your range isText results appended to pokerstove.txt 34 games 0.005 secs 6,800 games/secBoard: 5d Ts Js 4h 6cDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 70.588% 70.59% 00.00% 24 0.00 { JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, 55, AJs, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, Js9s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, AJo }Hand 1: 29.412% 29.41% 00.00% 10 0.00 { Th9h }So I wouldn't call you with a T, even if I thought you were bluffing missed spades a lot because it would be marginal at best and I'm probably overestimating the amount of times you are bluffing.Board: 5d Ts Js 4h 6cDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 34.615% 23.08% 11.54% 6 3.00 { JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, 55, AJs, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, Js9s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, AJo }Hand 1: 65.385% 53.85% 11.54% 14 3.00 { AhJh } 28 games 0.005 secs 5,600 games/secBoard: 5d Ts Js 4h 6cDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 64.286% 64.29% 00.00% 18 0.00 { JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, 55, AJs, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, Js9s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, AJo }Hand 1: 35.714% 35.71% 00.00% 10 0.00 { Jh9h }Call with AJ and marginal call with J9. It really comes down to how often you are bluffing.

I dont think we should assume that Cobalt would bluff with stuff like A6ss to A4ss because he would probably just check behind with them and pray the other guy missed other spades or had a oesd making his pair good. I didnt include Axss that didnt pair for similar reasons and because I think his bluffs needed to be decreased in his range anyways.I think Cobalts range looks something more like this.JJ-TT,55,AJs,KJs+,JTs,98s,8s7s,6s5s,5s4s,AJoWhich gives AJ 46.429%, KJ 27.059%. So Id probably draw the line there.This is still far from a perfect range but I think its a little better than the ranges you assigned him.

[CobaltBlue]

Moneyball16, on Wednesday, July 30th, 2008, 11:34 PM, said:

I dont think we should assume that Cobalt would bluff with stuff like A6ss to A4ss because he would probably just check behind with them and pray the other guy missed other spades or had a oesd making his pair good. I didnt include Axss that didnt pair for similar reasons and because I think his bluffs needed to be decreased in his range anyways.I think Cobalts range looks something more like this.JJ-TT,55,AJs,KJs+,JTs,98s,8s7s,6s5s,5s4s,AJoWhich gives AJ 46.429%, KJ 27.059%. So Id probably draw the line there.This is still far from a perfect range but I think its a little better than the ranges you assigned him.

I hadn't fully considered these points, but I really like them. I will say that Axs aren't quite as likely to make up my range as some of the suited connectors though. I'm not sure if the SB is observant to note that fact, but it's possible. I really like the analysis. (Certainly appreciate Dictius' efforts also.)

[whatgreatis]

You're def playing the hand for value which leads me to believe you have either AJ or two pair/set. I don't think if you're trying to bluff someone that uses the call button to frequently.I'd call you down with the obvious stuff but a hand like KJ or AJ is boarderline call.

[Dictius]

Moneyball16, on Thursday, July 31st, 2008, 3:34 PM, said:

I dont think we should assume that Cobalt would bluff with stuff like A6ss to A4ss because he would probably just check behind with them and pray the other guy missed other spades or had a oesd making his pair good. I didnt include Axss that didnt pair for similar reasons and because I think his bluffs needed to be decreased in his range anyways.I think Cobalts range looks something more like this.JJ-TT,55,AJs,KJs+,JTs,98s,8s7s,6s5s,5s4s,AJoWhich gives AJ 46.429%, KJ 27.059%. So Id probably draw the line there.This is still far from a perfect range but I think its a little better than the ranges you assigned him.

Then you have to remove 5s6s and 5s4s from this range because he has a pair with those hands too.I included heaps of AsXs hands because I thought that the bet on the end was more likely a bluff because I have seen Cobalt usually bet 1/2 pot bets for value, but apparently that read was incorrect so I like your range better but maybe with removing 4s5s and 5s6s. We can probably include some suited one gappers ? I think we will come out with the same result though. Easy call with AJ+ and marginal at best with less.

[Snamuh]

I doubt I'm calling Cobalt with less than 2 pair here and the only realistic two pair is TJ and he can't really show up with that often with the check/call lines. Cobalt led into a 4way and continued barrelling, which gives him a pretty strong range (at the very least some kind of combo draw or NFD). However, villain is representing a very weak range, the top most of which is probably AJ. Since AJ is probably the top of his range, I doubt he can/will fold that.I'd prefer to know if Cobalt is going to be firing 3 barrels here with a bricked draw, and the more draws he does this with, the lighter we can call. If I also knew that Cobalt knew that my range here was very weak, I'd be more inclined to call, knowing he'd be likely to continue with a lot of his bricked hands due to knowing I couldn't stand the heat.

[Temporary Nuts]

10-2 is the same here all the way up to J-10. This is a set or busted draw, and not much in between besides maybe JT. Just from looking at the bet sizes they are either control or pricing in a river shove...I say 10-2 because I think it's conceivable you could have hit one of the low pairs and are still turning it into a bluff.I guess because of my position and the strength it represents I'm folding pretty much everything.

[NoBBiR]

Zach6668, on Wednesday, July 30th, 2008, 4:00 AM, said:

SB has to have a missed draw here a lot. I can't imagine calling 3 barrels with one pair here, and I can't imagine him not putting in more action, or checking the river with two pair or better, even for a passive player.

I hope you know the girl in your avatar.If so, I'm going to kill you and assume your identity.(Edit: You don't since it's one of the first pics that came up on Google search. This girl intrigues me.)

[BaseJester]

We're being too results oriented. Next time, try posting without the community cards. Just stacks and reads.

[Moneyball16]

Dictius, on Thursday, July 31st, 2008, 4:39 PM, said:

Then you have to remove 5s6s and 5s4s from this range because he has a pair with those hands too.I included heaps of AsXs hands because I thought that the bet on the end was more likely a bluff because I have seen Cobalt usually bet 1/2 pot bets for value, but apparently that read was incorrect so I like your range better but maybe with removing 4s5s and 5s6s. We can probably include some suited one gappers ? I think we will come out with the same result though. Easy call with AJ+ and marginal at best with less.

54ss and 65ss would give Cobalt a pair and fd on flop and two pair by the river. So those hands are def in his range.

[Temporary Nuts]

Moneyball16, on Friday, August 1st, 2008, 12:11 AM, said:

54ss and 65ss would give Cobalt a pair and fd on flop and two pair by the river. So those hands are def in his range.

I'm not 100% convinced Cobalt value shoves those though...

[Snamuh]

Temporary Nuts, on Friday, August 1st, 2008, 12:37 AM, said:

I'm not 100% convinced Cobalt value shoves those though...

Why not? Villain never really has better.

[Temporary Nuts]

Snamuh, on Friday, August 1st, 2008, 1:04 AM, said:

Why not? Villain never really has better.

exactly