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#161 akashenk

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 05:23 AM

View Postirishguy, on 01 August 2012 - 06:49 AM, said:

I've got a similar hand in a database:Hero: 50kVillain: has me coveredBlinds 1000-2000Hero Ah9h opens 5000 in hi jack, villain calls from button, blinds fold.Flop: Ac 8d 5h (13000)Hero checks, villain bets 7500, hero ?I assume you still say check raise?As for how much I'm willing to call on the turn in the original hand it really comes down to math 6k, 8k I'm still getting the right price to call -plus smaller bets make it less likely he's as strong bc he's not pricing out draws etc
If its at a late stage in the tournament I will decide based on these criteria... Is my opponent solid or is he bad/crazy.If solid, and if want to really try and win the hand.. then I c/r. if I don't feel that into it, I c/f. c/c would be my third most likely option.If the opponent is bad/crazy I guess I am more likely to c/c becasue I can't take for granted that they will give any thought to my stack size or what I might have in my hand. However in this scenrio, I am in just as much perile of putting all my chips in in a bad or at best mediocre position, so c/f continues to have merit. Our lack of posiiton in this hand is really the limiting factor.Throughout this thread I think we have managed to highlight all sorts of bad things that can happen if we check the flop, no matter what we do next (fold, call, raise). I think this might be good evidence that continuing or lead on the flop is probably a better play. If the opponent calls, we can slow down on the turn or maybe fire a second bullet. If they shove the flop, then we can fold having lost only our lead bet.

#162 donk4life

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 05:42 AM

LOL if he's solid you want to c/r that flop? really? C/ring that flop against a spewtard is much better than doing it against someone solid

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

I don't mind folding out hands we beat.

#163 TrueAce13

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 05:56 AM

c/r'ing is always the right play bro!
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#164 irishguy

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:00 AM

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 05:04 AM, said:

Irishguy,You said “A big part of your justification seems to be because you know what the turn is..yes during different stages of tourneys hands play differently. And yes in position villain has more tools but the point is its highly unlikely villain is bluffing/betting a draw here and commiting his stack especially if we've established villain likely puts us on an ace-this would be suicidal.”Actually, with my strategy I don’t care what the turn is, and as long as it doesn’t hit out opponent with some random two pair or straight or flush, I feel we are likely to get a check behind. And if the villain does hit a straight or a flush, they will often slow play it and check behind. The idea is, we don’t put any more chips into the pot unless we know we’re in pretty good shape… unlike what occurred in this real hand… unlike what you are basically doing by calling a turn bet, even if the pot odds say you should. And at no point did I say villain is putting us on an A.. He is putting us on a mediocre hand, whether that is a weak A or something else. Frankly, since just about everyone advocates folding our hand to a reasonable bet on the turn (let’s ignore the flush draw we picked up for the moment), then I don’t see how you think it would be suicidal for our opponent to bet the turn if he did think we had exactly what we have.And by the way, let’s say a club does hit the turn. Doesn’t this present a perfect opportunity for our opponent to bluff in response to our check? Or maybe they have mediocre holdings with a big club and decide to continue to lead after our two checks. Now, if we had c/r, then I think it makes is MUCH less likely they would bluff the turn if a club hit because we look like we have committed ourselves to the pot. They are much more likely to play the “let’s see what happens on the river” game which is exactly what we want with our mediocre hand.You said “Yes maybe villain is betting Aj etc on the turn but oh we'll we're behind and not getting odds to call..the assertion by his play is that he's got us beat when we decide on our flop play its without the knowledge of us turning a draw.::the fact that we do turn a draw makes the hand interesting but doesn't mean we can rewind and play the flop again with the knowledge of the turn:”Yes, if he has AJ/AQ we are behind and calling would certainly not be a good idea in general, even if the pot odds indicate we should. However, look at how great that turn card was as far as our chances of improving. We went from 3 outs against AJ/AQ to 12 outs. We basically quadrupled our chance of winning the hand. Wouldn’t it be nice to see that river for free?Now if we don’t turn the draw, then little has changed except for our chances of winning the hand. The villain will still check behind the majority of the time.Throughout this whole debate, I’m willing to accept that c/c and “seeing what happens” is a reasonable, if not preferred line of play at other points in the tournament. However in this situation, I really have a hard time getting over the fact that you guys are willing to call 4K in a spot where we you will almost always have to fold on the turn. Our hand has almost no chance of improving on the turn, and even if we catch that miracle 10 (the only card that maybe makes us happy), it completes several straights and perhaps a flush. I would say there is no card that can hit the turn that makes us willing to call a reasonable bet. In this case we would have to lead out and hope our opponent is fairly weak, or we just have to kiss our 4K goodbye. Why is this such a great line of play? How is this more conservative from a chip standpoint than c/r the flop... establishing once and for all whether our opponent has a monster or not, making it more likely we don’t have to put in any more money into the pot in a really marginal situation, and giving us a better chance to see the river and improve?
This is the point that's just so off: to say the c c c line is better earlier and bad now is completely contingent on the likelihood that villain bluffs this turn committing his stack-the continued opinion is that it's just not likely..and if you believe that there's a huge likelihood of the turn bluff by c c c you should be advocating calling the turn...You say c r gets us to the river more often-but if he calls we are beat or he has a draw we price him in but either way he's never betting unless he improves-which brings us back to a whole world of issues:1: we price in draws2: we don't raise enough or continue on with our story to fold out better hands3: villian is aggressive enough to double barrel comitt himself in our line but so passive that he never bets turn in yours or never value bets or bluffs river after being checked to twice...completely conflicting thoughts
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#165 irishguy

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:05 AM

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 05:23 AM, said:

If its at a late stage in the tournament I will decide based on these criteria... Is my opponent solid or is he bad/crazy.If solid, and if want to really try and win the hand.. then I c/r. if I don't feel that into it, I c/f. c/c would be my third most likely option.If the opponent is bad/crazy I guess I am more likely to c/c becasue I can't take for granted that they will give any thought to my stack size or what I might have in my hand. However in this scenrio, I am in just as much perile of putting all my chips in in a bad or at best mediocre position, so c/f continues to have merit. Our lack of posiiton in this hand is really the limiting factor.Throughout this thread I think we have managed to highlight all sorts of bad things that can happen if we check the flop, no matter what we do next (fold, call, raise). I think this might be good evidence that continuing or lead on the flop is probably a better play. If the opponent calls, we can slow down on the turn or maybe fire a second bullet. If they shove the flop, then we can fold having lost only our lead bet.
On top of what donk said you just don't think villain is betting like the hugest portion of his range when checked to on the flop? And then we run into the exact same scenario of raising and folding out every hand that we beat and putting more money in the pot for hands that are ahead of us...
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#166 TrueAce13

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:06 AM

We only have top pair w/ a decent kicker, We shouldn't mind turning our top pair into a bluff
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#167 akashenk

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:16 AM

View PostTrueAce13, on 02 August 2012 - 06:06 AM, said:

We only have top pair w/ a decent kicker, We shouldn't mind turning our top pair into a bluff
yes, you keep lamenting that. No one ever busts out of tournaments with top pair, 10 kicker. Its practically the nuts.

#168 akashenk

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:19 AM

View Postirishguy, on 02 August 2012 - 06:05 AM, said:

On top of what donk said you just don't think villain is betting like the hugest portion of his range when checked to on the flop? And then we run into the exact same scenario of raising and folding out every hand that we beat and putting more money in the pot for hands that are ahead of us...
I'm not sure what you're talking about or what you're referring to. I would agree that the opponent is likely to bet pretty much anything on the flop after we have forfeited the lead in the hand.

#169 akashenk

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:20 AM

View Postdonk4life, on 02 August 2012 - 05:42 AM, said:

LOL if he's solid you want to c/r that flop? really? C/ring that flop against a spewtard is much better than doing it against someone solid
thanks for providing some in-depth analysis.

#170 TrueAce13

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:26 AM

;lsadjfl;kasdfj; I WAS AGREEING W/ YOU!
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#171 irishguy

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:31 AM

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 06:19 AM, said:

I'm not sure what you're talking about or what you're referring to. I would agree that the opponent is likely to bet pretty much anything on the flop after we have forfeited the lead in the hand.
So we c r and fold out the hands we beat and put more money in the pot for the hands that beat us. . .
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#172 akashenk

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:33 AM

View Postirishguy, on 02 August 2012 - 06:00 AM, said:

This is the point that's just so off: to say the c c c line is better earlier and bad now is completely contingent on the likelihood that villain bluffs this turn committing his stack-the continued opinion is that it's just not likely..and if you believe that there's a huge likelihood of the turn bluff by c c c you should be advocating calling the turn...You say c r gets us to the river more often-but if he calls we are beat or he has a draw we price him in but either way he's never betting unless he improves-which brings us back to a whole world of issues:1: we price in draws2: we don't raise enough or continue on with our story to fold out better hands3: villian is aggressive enough to double barrel comitt himself in our line but so passive that he never bets turn in yours or never value bets or bluffs river after being checked to twice...completely conflicting thoughts
I Only say c/c/c is better earlier because the mistakes we make as a result of playing this hand so weakly and having little idea where we stand are less detrimental to our survival earlier, as opposed to this late tournament situaiton. Its not because playing the "let's see what happens" game is fundamentally a better strategy.And I am not advocating that there is HUGE chance that the villain will bluff the turn if we c/c. I am advocating that there is SOME chance he will do so. I am also advocating that he is likely to continue to bet with marginal hands that have us beat and/or draws. All of these things will result in us folding and having a 0% chance of winning the hand. My c/r minimized the chances of all of these things, giving us a chance to win the hand by catching up, or perhaps having the best hand.There's a fundamental issue you guys keep overlooking. We are mediocre. If we were strong, we could protect our hand by raising all in, or doing other things agressively. But there are too many hands that have us dominated. Unless you're suicidal, there's no way you can play the hand as if you're good on the flop, trying to fold out draws. So, in addition to the fact that many players are happy to get it in with big draws at this point in the tournamen, I don't see any way we are going to be able to get our opponent off a draw. So, the hand is likely gong to the river, with or without us. I prefer it to be with us particualryl if we have invested any chips on the flop."3: villian is aggressive enough to double barrel comitt himself in our line but so passive that he never bets turn in yours or never value bets or bluffs river after being checked to twice...completely conflicting thoughts"These are not conlficting thoughts because our relative stack sizes and the size of the pot are different in each case. Good players do not bluff when they believe it is less likely for their opponent to fold. Good players do not make thin value bets on the river for most of their remaining chips when only a better hand will call.

#173 akashenk

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:35 AM

View PostTrueAce13, on 02 August 2012 - 06:26 AM, said:

;lsadjfl;kasdfj; I WAS AGREEING W/ YOU!
Forgive me if I didn't expect that. Ok, sorry.. what' you're point? Are you now advocating the c/r strategy? You seemed to complain about us turnng top air into a bluff (thought I don't really think that what we're really accomplishing here) in earlier posts.

#174 akashenk

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:44 AM

View Postirishguy, on 02 August 2012 - 06:31 AM, said:

So we c r and fold out the hands we beat and put more money in the pot for the hands that beat us. . .
I don't mind folding out hands we beat becasue.. we may not be beating them by the river and are not likely to act aggressively on future streets to prevent that. What is wrong with winning a small pot with a mediocre hand? Isn't that the goal in small-ball?Yes, we are putting more money in.. but very little (only 4K more). Compare that you calling 6K on the turn to try and catch your flush. Or compare that to the ~20K or so our hero put in by making a mistake. My argument all along is the 4K extra is viritually irrelevant from a chip stack size point of view and is worth it because it makes it more likely we will win the hand. I gotta say you guys keep ignoring the point I make about the worthiness of the original 4K call in you c/c play. Unless we catch a miriacle 10 on the turn (still could be bad), or our opponent is indeed really weak.passive, I see amost no chance for us winning this hand by calling the flop. Our flat on the flop just gives them too many opportunities to bet, either for value, or as a bluff, or as a semi-bluff on the turn, and we have agreed that we are folding to most bets or making a pretty risky call. Calling with little hope of improving and with the full intention of folding to a bet from a player in position doesn't seem like a +EV play to me.

#175 irishguy

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:53 AM

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 06:33 AM, said:

I Only say c/c/c is better earlier becasue the mistakes we make as a result of playing this hand so weakly and having little idea where we stand are less determinetal to our survival earlier, as opposed to this late tournament situaiton. Its not because playing the "let's see what happens" game is fundamentally a better strategy.And I am not advocating that there is HUGE chance that the villain will bluff the turn if we c/c. I am advocating that there is SOME chance he will do so. I am also advocating that he is likely to continue to bet with marginal hands that have us beat and/or draws. All of these things will result in us folding and having a 0% chance of winning the hand. My c/r minimized the chances of all of these things, giving us a chance to win the hand by catching up, or perhaps having the best hand.There's a fundamental issue you guys keep overlooking. We are mediocre. If we were strong, we could protect our hand by raising all in, or doing other things agressively. But there are too many hands that have us dominated. Unless you're suicidal, there's no way you can play the hand as if you're good on the flop, trying to fold out draws. So, in addition to the fact that many players are happy to get it in with big draws at this point in the tournamen, I don't see any way we are going to be able to get our opponent off a draw. So, the hand is likely gong to the river, with or without us. I prefer it to be with us particualryl if we have invested any chips on the flop."3: villian is aggressive enough to double barrel comitt himself in our line but so passive that he never bets turn in yours or never value bets or bluffs river after being checked to twice...completely conflicting thoughts"These are not conlficting thoughts because our relative stack sizes and the size of the pot are different in each case. Good players do not bluff when they believe it is less likely for their opponent to fold. Good players do not make thin value bets on the river for most of their remaining chips when only a better hand will call.
When I say the likelihood of him bluffing the turn for more then hf his stack this includes betting draws ie: semi bluffing as played the consensus seems to be it's just not likely You say c r gets us to the river more:1) giving us the chance to win vs draws that don't get there-this is hugely -ev considering we've priced the draws in..2:) giving us the chance to catch up if we are behind-so we raise with our thought process being well if he calls we can go runner runner but then you've stated those times that we do catch up that villain wont put another chip in he pot...The whole notion that we are mediocre if we are strong we could shove all in to "protect our hand/fold out draws" is just so flawed...we DON'T WANT to fold out draws. In fact if we think that a large part of villains shoving range is combo draws, flush draws, straight draws we should only be c r with the intent of snapping of the shove...again that crazy thing called math
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#176 donk4life

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:53 AM

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

I don't mind folding out hands we beat.
May be the greatest sentence of all time.edit: so you're saying on that board you want to fold out kq? qj? j10? j9? kj?

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

I don't mind folding out hands we beat.

#177 TrueAce13

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 06:59 AM

who needs value?! we get protection!
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#178 irishguy

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 07:04 AM

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

I don't mind folding out hands we beat becasue.. we may not be beating them by the river and are not likely to act aggressively on future streets to prevent that. What is wrong with winning a small pot with a mediocre hand? Isn't that the goal in small-ball?Yes, we are putting more money in.. but very little (only 4K more). Compare that you calling 6K on the turn to try and catch your flush. Or compare that to the ~20K or so our hero put in by making a mistake. My argument all along is the 4K extra is viritually irrelevant from a chip stack size point of view and is worth it because it makes it more likely we will win the hand. I gotta say you guys keep ignoring the point I make about the worthiness of the original 4K call in you c/c play. Unless we catch a miriacle 10 on the turn (still could be bad), or our opponent is indeed really weak.passive, I see amost no chance for us winning this hand by calling the flop. Our flat on the flop just gives them too many opportunities to bet, either for value, or as a bluff, or as a semi-bluff on the turn, and we have agreed that we are folding to most bets or making a pretty risky call. Calling with little hope of improving and with the full intention of folding to a bet from a player in position doesn't seem like a +EV play to me.
So if you know with 100% certainty villain has an underpair your raising here cus he might catch up? You keep ignoring the fact that we view the likelihood of villain bluffing/semi bluffing to be little to none considering how much of his stack is at risk. Youve agreed that villain is likely betting 100% of their range when checked to on the flop but don't think we ever win the hand by just calling so you think villains betting 100% of their range on the turn..:we just don't agree with thatMost worse aces, nines, mid pairs give up after the flop rather then commit their stack (ie: bluff)-hands which would've folded to your c rMost draws:check behind on the turn rather then commit their stack here when it looks as tho we're interested in the hand (ie: bluff/ semi bluff)
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#179 akashenk

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 07:26 AM

View Postdonk4life, on 02 August 2012 - 06:53 AM, said:

May be the greatest sentence of all time.edit: so you're saying on that board you want to fold out kq? qj? j10? j9? kj?
If you don't understand the value of winning a small pot in a marginal situation sooner rather than later then you clearly have little understanding of poker in genreal, and tournament poker specifically (particularly with stacks this short). I'm giong to assume you do have some understanding and are just arguing this crazy point for the sake of argument.If I am understanding your argument...you don't want to risk folding out garbage hands like this becauseA) You are counting on the the small chance that they may catch a little something on future streets, but not too much, of course, orB) If they do already have middle pair, or if they do catch middle pair, they will be willing to put more chips into the pot, orC) they are going to bluff AND we are going to be able to call with our mediocre hand.These things have to have a high degree of likelihood if you believe getting them to fold a hand like you mentioned is bad for us. I don't think any of these things are at all likely.

#180 akashenk

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 07:27 AM

View PostTrueAce13, on 02 August 2012 - 06:59 AM, said:

who needs value?! we get protection!
I gotta repeat, you guys must play against a lot of really bad players if you think there's any chance you will get value from someone you are ahead of in this flop.




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