Jump to content


Daily Fantasy Sports. Lets All Make Some Money


  • Please log in to reply
502 replies to this topic

#21 Dubey

Dubey

    Poker Forum God

  • Members
  • 10,940 posts
  • Location:Lethbridge, Alberta

Posted 16 September 2015 - 09:24 AM

Of course the high-level guys are going to have that information and use it better than you or me, but there are also thousands (millions?) of complete recreational players entering DFS right now, who are going to do little to no research and just blindly enter a lineup based on their own intuition. I don't know what percentage of the player pool this represents, but I don't think it's insignificant. And again, I have no idea if being slightly smarter than the masses is enough to be profitable, these are just random observations

#22 Dubey

Dubey

    Poker Forum God

  • Members
  • 10,940 posts
  • Location:Lethbridge, Alberta

Posted 16 September 2015 - 09:29 AM

All I am saying is there are lots of player's who's price on DK is $X, but who's actual value is >X or <X, and you can identify some of these players with some relatively simple research. The DK pricing system seems to be fairly inefficient and exploitable. Whether this is enough to be profitable for the guy doing just a little more research than the average Joe? again, I have no earthly clue.

#23 MapleLeafpoker

MapleLeafpoker

    Poker Forum God

  • Members
  • 17,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Toronto
  • Interests:Poker, Hockey, Hockey pools

Posted 16 September 2015 - 09:30 AM

You guys know this better than me, but on poker sites, wasnt there a way to look up your competition, and sort of direct yourself to the table at which bad players were playing? You know, Chris goes on, looks up some guy names FRANCISWHALERNATION, sees Im a total fish, and plays at my table. Am I off?

Do we know is DFS allows that?

#24 gruven

gruven

    The Poker Show on Sportsnet Radio Fan590

  • Members
  • 10,569 posts
  • Location:Toronto

Posted 16 September 2015 - 09:31 AM

View PostDubey, on 16 September 2015 - 09:24 AM, said:

Of course the high-level guys are going to have that information and use it better than you or me, but there are also thousands (millions?) of complete recreational players entering DFS right now, who are going to do little to no research and just blindly enter a lineup based on their own intuition. I don't know what percentage of the player pool this represents, but I don't think it's insignificant. And again, I have no idea if being slightly smarter than the masses is enough to be profitable, these are just random observations
I think your point is valid Dubey, although I don't think it changes anything. I do wholeheartedly agree that football is the hardest thing to predict. Your right tackle who's a great pass blocker sprains his ankle on the first play of the game, and your QB passes for 50 yards instead of 250. Happens in every single game. Much harder to predict. However, that being said, chaos theory abounds! Those random factors occur in every game, and the best DFS players will be better equipped to ride it out.

By the way, food for thought: There is a stat out there that says that 90% of DFS money is won by 10% of the players.
The Rick Tocchet Experience
Proud Member Since October 2008

Owner and GM AHL Steelheads
2015-16 AHL President's Trophy Winner
2015-16 AHL Champions

#25 MapleLeafpoker

MapleLeafpoker

    Poker Forum God

  • Members
  • 17,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Toronto
  • Interests:Poker, Hockey, Hockey pools

Posted 16 September 2015 - 09:32 AM

View PostDubey, on 16 September 2015 - 09:29 AM, said:

All I am saying is there are lots of player's who's price on DK is $X, but who's actual value is >X or <X, and you can identify some of these players with some relatively simple research.

lol, you wrote this just as I was asking my question.
so now that we know Dale's name on DFS, I can look him up and see how hes done?

#26 gruven

gruven

    The Poker Show on Sportsnet Radio Fan590

  • Members
  • 10,569 posts
  • Location:Toronto

Posted 16 September 2015 - 09:33 AM

View PostMapleLeafpoker, on 16 September 2015 - 09:30 AM, said:

You guys know this better than me, but on poker sites, wasnt there a way to look up your competition, and sort of direct yourself to the table at which bad players were playing? You know, Chris goes on, looks up some guy names FRANCISWHALERNATION, sees Im a total fish, and plays at my table. Am I off?

Do we know is DFS allows that?
Can't do it. You can see all the players playing a tournament and how many lineups they have in, but not until it's started. No bumhunting. To the pros, we're ALL bums.
The Rick Tocchet Experience
Proud Member Since October 2008

Owner and GM AHL Steelheads
2015-16 AHL President's Trophy Winner
2015-16 AHL Champions

#27 Dubey

Dubey

    Poker Forum God

  • Members
  • 10,940 posts
  • Location:Lethbridge, Alberta

Posted 16 September 2015 - 09:33 AM

View Postgruven, on 16 September 2015 - 09:31 AM, said:


By the way, food for thought: There is a stat out there that says that 90% of DFS money is won by 10% of the players.


I suspect online poker is pretty similar.

#28 Dubey

Dubey

    Poker Forum God

  • Members
  • 10,940 posts
  • Location:Lethbridge, Alberta

Posted 16 September 2015 - 09:34 AM

View PostMapleLeafpoker, on 16 September 2015 - 09:32 AM, said:



lol, you wrote this just as I was asking my question.
so now that we know Dale's name on DFS, I can look him up and see how hes done?

I was referring to players as in athletes

#29 digitalmonkey

digitalmonkey

    Unenjoyable Annoying Retard

  • Members
  • 37,797 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Sudbury
  • Interests:sports, music, movies, photography
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hi/Lo Chicago

Posted 16 September 2015 - 09:53 AM

View PostMapleLeafpoker, on 16 September 2015 - 09:32 AM, said:



lol, you wrote this just as I was asking my question.
so now that we know Dale's name on DFS, I can look him up and see how hes done?

Haha

$0.00 wagered
$0.00 winnings

I'll keep you updated lol
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

#30 mrdannyg

mrdannyg

    Cheese Salesman

  • Members
  • 20,267 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 16 September 2015 - 09:59 AM

View PostDubey, on 16 September 2015 - 09:29 AM, said:

All I am saying is there are lots of player's who's price on DK is $X, but who's actual value is >X or <X, and you can identify some of these players with some relatively simple research. The DK pricing system seems to be fairly inefficient and exploitable. Whether this is enough to be profitable for the guy doing just a little more research than the average Joe? again, I have no earthly clue.

My last post came off poorly - it was meant as a compliment towards you. And I do, generally agree, that there is the potential for there to be winning opportunities in a market with betting overlays, a lot of fish, etc, if you play it smart. I think the sites have to change if they want to attract non-pros for the long haul, but in the meantime, if you can stay away from tournaments where a professional betting model gets to play you 500 times, then no reason there can't be money to be made, as well as some fun!

View PostDubey, on 16 September 2015 - 09:33 AM, said:

I suspect online poker is pretty similar.

I think the difference is on a gross vs net basis. Go on Pokerstars right now and you'll see the top players winning a fraction of a percent of money, because of course they are only playing a few of the thousand of games going on. So the fishes can pass money back and forth, and the little guys only need to be able to regularly beat little guys to eke a small profit, though of course the total dollars won will still be hugely stacked for the pros.

Conversely, the stat I think Chris is referring to is 90% of all the prizes are won by pros, which wouldn't compare. For bigger tournaments, it really is like if the top players could enter hundreds of times, and somehow manage those hundreds of entries without a loss in efficiency. How often would me or you ever win? For the smaller tournaments, I have no idea. If the scoring is the same as the big ones, I don't see any reason why the pros wouldn't enter it, but maybe it doesn't work like that.

And of course, the thing I have pretended is that all the pros know what they're doing and are really good at it. It is still early and you can bet there are a bunch of guys out there who think they have it modelled and are entering hundreds of times, but are actually long-term losers and putting up big overlays.

View Postserge, on 16 September 2015 - 09:23 AM, said:

Very good points...

Do we believe that Hockey might be a better option for the hardcore hockey guy as the amount of people involved in fantasy hockey is so small compared to Football? Seems like EVERYONE here plays fantasy football..From the traditional gambler to the elementary teacher...

If an offensive lineman misses practice on Wednesday its headline news on ESPN...If Ryan Oreilly missed practice, doubt it makes news.

Similar to what I said above, in the early days, you're going to have people with bad models, are overaggressive, etc. Some guy develops a baseball model that wins big, and he's sure he has it figured out and does the same with hockey, but hey, hockey is different, and all of a sudden you guys with a lifetime of hockey knowledge are against a guy who can't get his model right and dumps a few hundred thousand of his baseball winnings because he doesn't realize that when rotoworld says O'Reilly is being replaced by Joe "minor league scoring champ" Smith, it is really the second-line center who benefits, and Joe Smith might get 7 minutes on the 4th line.

You do miss out on significant overlays from Joe Shmoe who bets the Cowboys every week, but I bet a few guys with real hockey expertise could make some good plays in the next year or two with everything so new, and with lots of new money not realizing how hard hockey is, or football players looking for something to keep their attention mid-week.
Long signatures are really annoying.

#31 Dubey

Dubey

    Poker Forum God

  • Members
  • 10,940 posts
  • Location:Lethbridge, Alberta

Posted 16 September 2015 - 10:04 AM

if it Is true that 90% of all prizes are won by pros, then that does not bode well for the future of DFS.

#32 MapleLeafpoker

MapleLeafpoker

    Poker Forum God

  • Members
  • 17,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Toronto
  • Interests:Poker, Hockey, Hockey pools

Posted 16 September 2015 - 10:27 AM

View PostDubey, on 16 September 2015 - 10:04 AM, said:

if it Is true that 90% of all prizes are won by pros, then that does not bode well for the future of DFS.

We can talk all we want about Black Friday in April/The poker thing, but wasnt North American online poker already beginning a downturn and dying off a little?
At some point, fish like me say "eh, Im not winning, this isnt fun". Dont they? I sure did after only a couple of hundred dollars years and years ago.

#33 digitalmonkey

digitalmonkey

    Unenjoyable Annoying Retard

  • Members
  • 37,797 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Sudbury
  • Interests:sports, music, movies, photography
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hi/Lo Chicago

Posted 16 September 2015 - 10:33 AM

I don't know if this will see the same fall off. It's a lot easier to wager $5, pick a lineup and root for the guys you picked than it is to sit down and play poker for hours trying to win a few bucks.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

#34 digitalmonkey

digitalmonkey

    Unenjoyable Annoying Retard

  • Members
  • 37,797 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Sudbury
  • Interests:sports, music, movies, photography
  • Favorite Poker Game:Hi/Lo Chicago

Posted 16 September 2015 - 10:35 AM

People buy lottery tickets all the time. This is the same for the fish only they get to root for their balls.

I would guess the majority of players are oblivious to the existence of DFS pros and the tools they use.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

#35 MapleLeafpoker

MapleLeafpoker

    Poker Forum God

  • Members
  • 17,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Toronto
  • Interests:Poker, Hockey, Hockey pools

Posted 16 September 2015 - 10:37 AM

View Postdigitalmonkey, on 16 September 2015 - 10:33 AM, said:

I don't know if this will see the same fall off. It's a lot easier to wager $5, pick a lineup and root for the guys you picked than it is to sit down and play poker for hours trying to win a few bucks.

good point. requires much less concentration/time.
you also make a really good point that maybe most people FOR NOW, do not know about the sharks. While I am guessing soon they will, I guess they havent figured it out.

I'm really curious to see the groups of friends I do my hockey pools with over the next couple of weeks, and their responses/involvement with DFS.

#36 serge

serge

    Leafs nation Grand Poobah

  • Members
  • 48,802 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Toronto

Posted 16 September 2015 - 11:06 AM

You guys are missing a huge point. Significant percentage of DFS players just don't care about sharks, edges, stats. They do it for enjoyment and a chance to turn a measly $20 into $2million.

There are 100s of casino games that have been out for decades and there is significant data of house edge and casino hold. People still flock to these games.

Some table games games like Caribbean stud and variants have edge of numbers like 30 percent. People love the games and the action.

Saying that DFS is a solved by few( my research showed there are less than 500 true sharks) will do nothing to the masses.

Having said that I'm pouring significant time right now on learning the programs, and improving my chances. Talking to a math guy here actually devising our own statistical program.

I did the same thing with poker back in the day. Just put in more hours reading, studying every chance I got where I best the game on a significant clip for several years of full time devotion.

Sharp guys like Arp and Dubey might not have the time to devote 5 hours a day, but they have a big edge over a significant number of people just based on sheer willingness to study and understand concepts rather than clicking buttons.
Owner of the Mustangs, 2014-2015 AHL Eastern Division Champs

Lets make America Great Again. Trump 2016

#37 mrdannyg

mrdannyg

    Cheese Salesman

  • Members
  • 20,267 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 16 September 2015 - 11:21 AM

View Postserge, on 16 September 2015 - 11:06 AM, said:

You guys are missing a huge point. Significant percentage of DFS players just don't care about sharks, edges, stats. They do it for enjoyment and a chance to turn a measly $20 into $2million.


This is where the disagreement may be. There are lots of DFS fish out there for sure. But each DFS shark can enter at least 500 times. You need a LOT of fish to counter even a few dozen pros who can legally enter 500+ times (and we all know from poker that any pro worth his salt will have some friends and family accounts available).

You are correct though. Casinos are still in business because people play blackjack and caribbean and whatever, for years, and in those cases there is no doubt the odds are against them. There'll always be fish in the sea.
Long signatures are really annoying.

#38 mrdannyg

mrdannyg

    Cheese Salesman

  • Members
  • 20,267 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 16 September 2015 - 11:25 AM

View PostDubey, on 16 September 2015 - 10:04 AM, said:

if it Is true that 90% of all prizes are won by pros, then that does not bode well for the future of DFS.

I agree. This is specific to big football tournaments, but its basically what this article says, I think (though I can't see it at work):

http://www.bloomberg...antasy-football

View Postdigitalmonkey, on 16 September 2015 - 10:35 AM, said:

People buy lottery tickets all the time. This is the same for the fish only they get to root for their balls.

I would guess the majority of players are oblivious to the existence of DFS pros and the tools they use.

Not sure if they're oblivious, or just think that those entries are a small portion of the overall pool (maybe), don't care what a fancy computer with 100 factors thinks (meh) or just figures it is only $10/week, so why not take a chance for a million in a way that is more fun and has better odds than the lottery (which it doesn't, probably, but this is a good reason!). I mean, seems like every person in this thread (other than me and Biatch) are aware of the pros, and yet has decided to at least consider playing. Like serge says, even being explicitly aware the odds are against you doesn't discourage a good portion of people from playing.
Long signatures are really annoying.

#39 serge

serge

    Leafs nation Grand Poobah

  • Members
  • 48,802 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Toronto

Posted 16 September 2015 - 11:27 AM

View Postmrdannyg, on 16 September 2015 - 11:21 AM, said:

This is where the disagreement may be. There are lots of DFS fish out there for sure. But each DFS shark can enter at least 500 times. You need a LOT of fish to counter even a few dozen pros who can legally enter 500+ times (and we all know from poker that any pro worth his salt will have some friends and family accounts available).

You are correct though. Casinos are still in business because people play blackjack and caribbean and whatever, for years, and in those cases there is no doubt the odds are against them. There'll always be fish in the sea.

I think thats something the sites can curtail, I think some of the smaller sites may not even have that option....If they are losing market share due to fish not playing against 500 entries from one person, then you get rid of it.

Its similar to HUDs in poker..All the top pros use HUDS to get stats and tendencies..There is a thought that online poker is very tough to beat unless you are using a HUD

Now that I cant play on Pokerstars I have been playing on Bovada Poker. They run a very interesting software where you are anonymous. You dont know who you are playing against , other than its player 7...Which makes it a lot similar to live poker, where the only info you have is the info you have as you build a story on the guy while he is at your table.

I think HUDs should be banned from poker..WSOP who runs a legal site in Nevada, doesnt allow HUDs..
Owner of the Mustangs, 2014-2015 AHL Eastern Division Champs

Lets make America Great Again. Trump 2016

#40 mrdannyg

mrdannyg

    Cheese Salesman

  • Members
  • 20,267 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 16 September 2015 - 11:28 AM

This whole topic is so interesting, I'm really loving hearing your guys opinions on it, especially because of all the parallels to online poker.
Long signatures are really annoying.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users