129 replies to this topic

[DanielNegreanu]

You are dealt A K and raise from late position to 800. The player in the big blind calls you. The flop comes A 9 8 . The big blind checks to you and you decide to play tricky and check behind him. The turn is the 7 and your opponent checks again. This time you make a goofy little bet of 1000. Your opponent calls. The river comes the 3 and all of a sudden your opponent goes all in for 5400. You have 6300. The question is simple, without knowing ANYTHING about the player, what would you do? It is level five of a $10,000 buy in tournament.

[bdc30]

Meh, I probably fold.I'm starting to hate AK anyways...lolThere are too many sooooted connector type hands that an unknownwould play against a small raise that have us crushed, and it looks likehe's been slowplaying with the c/c line.Seems in some circles that the over-bet-push is the new "value bet" these days.edit- and bet the flop.

[nutzbuster]

Fold.You blew it! Too late now.He's on 2-pair or trips or......heck, your beat.Without knowing...I gotta dump it.bummer....

[gilbertology]

I probly Call. He check-called the turn, and a random player would likely bet out or cr the turn with two pair - A9, A8, A7, 89, 79. 78, especially without the ace. Since there is a str8 draw on the board its likely he would bet or cr with trips as well. He probably has a pair and a straight draw, like 810, or just a naked ten. He reads you as weak(not having the ace), since you checked the flop and then mini bet the turn, so he likely thinks he can bluff you out of the pot by going all-in.Of course he could be a tricky player and I've seen some people call the turn then bet big on the river slowplaying a big hand.

[ibthepenny]

I would fold thinking he hit a set. If he didn't and I have the best hand, I would hope he makes the same move later when I have the nuts.

[shpaget]

Going to assume that 5th level means 100/200 blinds, with 25 ante.So, what would he call out of position another 600 into a 1350 pot?Most pairs?AQ-AT?Some suited aces?KQs?High suited connectors?He checked the flop. That's fine...he could have hit the flop hard and decided to check to the raiser.He checked the turn...after checking to the raiser, who also checked, he would certainly lead out now, if he had trips or two pair...he needs to know if you hit your straight...he also wants to make TT fold (or pay dearly to draw). Even if he's got the improbable straight now he probably leads out to protect the flush draw, and to get value from your two pair or set.The river is a brick....unless he called with A3s pf, that river didn't help him, and he's 100% certain it didn't help you.Does he have a hand? No. His betting pattern doesn't make any sense if he does (and if he's being really tricky - and taking big risks doing so - good for him). He may have a weak ace (doubtful)...a low pair (55)...adn/or a busted flush/straight draw.He's either really strong or really weak...and his betting pattern prior to the river doesn't indicate strength.The more important element here is 'what does he think you have?'He probably puts your turn bet as a steal...or a probe...he doesn't put you on an ace, let alone AK....he likely thinks that you have a pair like TT-KK, and can make you fold.I lean towards calling, even with just tptk....you played tricky to entice him to bet...he bet...call.

[stevel999]

I would also fold thinking he has a set, less likely two pair. Not worth putting your tournament on the line here IMHO.

[Acid_Knight]

I'll be the first to mention the horrible pot odds we're getting.Let's assume that the table is 9 handed, which is reasonable.He bet 5400 into a pot that was only 3925 at the time.9*25 + 100 + 800 + 800 + 1000 + 1000 + 5400 = 9325We have to call 5400 and we're getting less than 2-1. We can't be wrong too often here.I think that the way the hand played out, I have no idea where he's at and probably visa versa. The only hand that I can beat is a bluff anyway. There is no hand that he'd "value" bet in this manner.I think if he had AQ, AJ, AT then he'd CR the turn to get a little info. The other medium aces beat us since they've made 2 pair. If he had a small A, he'd probably play it like this, check calling, hoping it was good.Everything points to him having us beat. We didn't invest many chips into the pot yet and we still have enough left with an M of around 10, to have a little play left.I think overbetting the pot all in on a bluff here is a little unlikely. We only have one pair. Everything about the way the hand played out says he can beat 1 pair, so I'm going to fold and fight another day.

[Waffles2003]

I call.However, I would never check that flop with that hand.

[shpaget]

Acid_Knight, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 6:28 AM, said:

I'll be the first to mention the horrible pot odds we're getting.Let's assume that the table is 9 handed, which is reasonable.He bet 5400 into a pot that was only 3925 at the time.9*25 + 100 + 800 + 800 + 1000 + 1000 + 5400 = 9325We have to call 5400 and we're getting less than 2-1. We can't be wrong too often here.I think that the way the hand played out, I have no idea where he's at and probably visa versa. The only hand that I can beat is a bluff anyway. There is no hand that he'd "value" bet in this manner.I think if he had AQ, AJ, AT then he'd CR the turn to get a little info. The other medium aces beat us since they've made 2 pair. If he had a small A, he'd probably play it like this, check calling, hoping it was good.Everything points to him having us beat. We didn't invest many chips into the pot yet and we still have enough left with an M of around 10, to have a little play left.I think overbetting the pot all in on a bluff here is a little unlikely. We only have one pair. Everything about the way the hand played out says he can beat 1 pair, so I'm going to fold and fight another day.

A typical player won't overbet two-pair here (even if he hit A3 on the river)....he needs to put you on exactly AK to make this a valuable bet...and I don't think he has any reason to think you have AK.Two pair is too much of a mid-range hand where you're not getting much value from a call from a weaker hand, and you're not getting much equity from a better hand folding.He, IMHO, is either VERY strong, or VERY weak. You pick which one, and I can live with it.I personally think he's very weak, for my reasons stated above, but can be convinced otherwise.I still contend the key to this hand is not what he has, but what he thinks you have (or what he thinks you don't have).

[Acid_Knight]

shpaget, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 7:56 AM, said:

he needs to put you on exactly AK to make this a valuable bet...and I don't think he has any reason to think you have AK.He, IMHO, is either VERY strong, or VERY weak. You pick which one, and I can live with it.I still contend the key to this hand is not what he has, but what he thinks you have (or what he thinks you don't have).

I agree with all of this, except for the first part. If he puts us on AK, and has AK beaten, then he'd make a much smaller bet to extract chips from us because it is highly likely that someone with AK will fold here. I also agree that there's no way that he should think we have that hand.However, we might be stronger than that, which means his bluff (if that's what it is) is extremely risky.I contend that we need to fold because all of the 2 pair hands that beat us would likely make a smaller value bet. If he did have just the A, he'd probably check-call or put out a weak defensive bet to avoid calling a larger one. Everything about this hand says that he has a straight, either JT or 56, or a less likely set.I'm going to go with his hand being extremely strong. When someone pushes all in on a river like that, your one pair hand is not often the winner, unless you have seem your opponent make this move before, which we have not. You invested about 20% of your stack. Don't make that 90%. Just move along to the next hand and hope that he makes the move when you have a more solid holding.

[shpaget]

Acid_Knight, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 7:23 AM, said:

I agree with all of this, except for the first part. If he puts us on AK, and has AK beaten, then he'd make a much smaller bet to extract chips from us because it is highly likely that someone with AK will fold here. I also agree that there's no way that he should think we have that hand.

Interesting...If I, for example, had A4 or 55 here, and I somehow put my opponent on AK, I'm not going to push all-in because I know that too many people (ie. a typical player) (case in point...me, in this thread) will not be able to lay down AK here. Not only do I need to know he has AK, but I also need to know he's capable of laying it down. Because of that, I would push with A3 if I knew he had AK. However, we agree that he has no reason to think you have AK.Now...can he put you on two pair? Can he think that you raised pf with A9 or A8? Or A7? or 89? And then, does he think you'll lay THAT down?You suggest most people lay down AK? Do they lay down 89, which is essentially one step up? A3? If he puts you on two pair, I agree that the bluff is less likely, and the strong hand is more likely...I just don't know if he can put you on two pair...even opening from late position, a pot-sized raise with A9 is borderline, let alone A8 or A7, and I don't know if he can put me on it...if he thinks I may have A9, he also has to think I may have AT, AJ, AQ, AK.

[gilbertology]

I think there's no way he check-calls the turn with 56, and probly not with 610 either. I agree that he either has a monster(most likely 10J) or is bluffing. Why would he go all-in on the river with two pair or trips or even just an ace? He's more likely to make a value bet of around 2k to try to extract some chips. If he puts you on 10s-Ks then this small stab on the river with two pair or better is more likely to be called than an all-in.The pot odds aren't great but calling 5400 into 9325 means you have to beat him at least 37% of the time. I think we're ahead over half the time here. Imo only bad players or really good players would make this all-in move on the river with a great hand. A bad player isn't thinking about extracting value and a good player wants to be unpredicatable ala Gus checking the river with quads. The majority of players lie inbetween.

[myenemy]

What hand could he check the turn with?Checking the turn is terribly fishy, if he had A3, I expect him to bet the turn putting us on possibly KK/QQ or at least finding out where he is. That said, I can't call here. Its too weird, I played the hand too trickily, and Experience is standing on my shoulder screaming in my ear.

[Acid_Knight]

shpaget, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 9:01 AM, said:

Now...can he put you on two pair? Can he think that you raised pf with A9 or A8? Or A7? or 89? And then, does he think you'll lay THAT down?You suggest most people lay down AK? Do they lay down 89, which is essentially one step up? A3? If he puts you on two pair, I agree that the bluff is less likely, and the strong hand is more likely...I just don't know if he can put you on two pair...even opening from late position, a pot-sized raise with A9 is borderline, let alone A8 or A7, and I don't know if he can put me on it...if he thinks I may have A9, he also has to think I may have AT, AJ, AQ, AK.

If I'm in LP of a tourney and the blinds (and antes) are now at a size where it's worth stealing them, you'd better believe that I'm raising with A7, 89 and many hands which are worse. Open raising with hands like this in LP is not borderline at all, it is really standard. You're in position and you need to give the blinds a reason to fold so that you can take their chips.Your point about 89 or 78 or a similar 2 pair is interesting because you're right, it's essentially the same hand as AK, except that you can beat AK with 78. I didn't suggest that most people will lay AK down here, but what I was suggesting was that if indeed he did have us beaten and had a good idea of our hand strength, he'd bet something like 3000 which is like 3/4 the pot and is almost certain to get called. By pushing he risks losing a customer that might have willing to do some business with him when it is much more profitable in the long run to make a smaller bet that will be called more often.I just think that the way the hand played out, we might have been too tricky and we don't really know where we're at. We're stuck guessing about his holding more than we'd like and it's going to cost us just about all of our chips to find out if we're right or wrong. I think that the odd way the hand played out is the reason that I advocate folding.

[Acid_Knight]

myenemy, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 9:39 AM, said:

What hand could he check the turn with?Checking the turn is terribly fishy, if he had A3, I expect him to bet the turn putting us on possibly KK/QQ or at least finding out where he is. That said, I can't call here. Its too weird, I played the hand too trickily, and Experience is standing on my shoulder screaming in my ear.

If I have A3 here, I play it EXACTLY THE SAME. Here's my reasoning.Preflop: Ok, he's in stealing position and he's raising, I have a "ok" hand to defend with, but I want to keep the pot small.On the flop: Ok, I hit my A, but I hate my kicker. I'll check and see what he does before I make up my mind.On the turn: Ok, I don't think he has an A because he checked. He might have hit a set, so I'll just check call this bet. If he's ahead, I'm probably drawing dead and if he's behind, he's probably got 2 outs. I don't really need to protect my hand.That's the logic that I would use until the river. My river thinking would go something like this:On the river: Ok now I got 2 pair and I'm like 90% sure that I have him beat the way this hand played out. I'm gonna bet like 3/4 of the pot and he'll hopefully think that I'm trying to buy it and I'll get a crying call. I suppose he could have me beaten here, but I think that this play is more profitable in the long run than check calling or check raising becuase I should get called by lots of hands here that are 2nd best.

[myenemy]

Acid_Knight, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 1:14 PM, said:

If I have A3 here, I play it EXACTLY THE SAME. Here's my reasoning.Preflop: Ok, he's in stealing position and he's raising, I have a "ok" hand to defend with, but I want to keep the pot small.On the flop: Ok, I hit my A, but I hate my kicker. I'll check and see what he does before I make up my mind.On the turn: Ok, I don't think he has an A because he checked. He might have hit a set, so I'll just check call this bet. If he's ahead, I'm probably drawing dead and if he's behind, he's probably got 2 outs. I don't really need to protect my hand.That's the logic that I would use until the river. My river thinking would go something like this:On the river: Ok now I got 2 pair and I'm like 90% sure that I have him beat the way this hand played out. I'm gonna bet like 3/4 of the pot and he'll hopefully think that I'm trying to buy it and I'll get a crying call. I suppose he could have me beaten here, but I think that this play is more profitable in the long run than check calling or check raising becuase I should get called by lots of hands here that are 2nd best.

Personally, I am betting this turn with A3.

[kennyg1966]

F OLD

[simo_8ball]

I call. If he's going to shove that river, why wouldn't he bet or raise the turn? He is representing that he has a made hand, but what made hand checks the flop, check-calls a small bet on the turn and open shoves the river?If he has the straight, he's played it very strangely. Most players would either bet the turn or raise the bet, and would be far more likely to value bet the river.If he has a set or two pair, he's played it very strangely. He probably have bet the turn because there are a lot of potential scare cards for a set on the river.You have appeared weak postflop, and he has to expect you to fold most of your hands to that bet. Your play looks designed to induce a bluff, and if you try to induce a bluff, you shouldn't fold when he bets.

[Acid_Knight]

simo_8ball, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 12:57 PM, said:

I call. If he's going to shove that river, why wouldn't he bet or raise the turn? He is representing that he has a made hand, but what made hand checks the flop, check-calls a small bet on the turn and open shoves the river?If he has the straight, he's played it very strangely. Most players would either bet the turn or raise the bet, and would be far more likely to value bet the river.If he has a set or two pair, he's played it very strangely. He probably have bet the turn because there are a lot of potential scare cards for a set on the river.If he has , he's played it very strangely.You have appeared weak postflop, and he has to expect you to fold most of your hands to that bet. Your play looks designed to induce a bluff, and if you try to induce a bluff, you shouldn't fold when he bets.

Just becuase your play was designed to induce a bluff, doesn't mean that he IS bluffing and that doesn't mean that we have to call off our whole stack.The whole idea behind this post is that whatever hand he has, whether we're beating it or not, has been played extremely strangely, as has our own hand. I just think that based on the information, that we're too unsure of his holding to make this profitable given our current pot odds.When I feel like I am unsure of his hand to this extent, I'm going to fold in a tournament situation with my life on the line. If the same thing happened in a cash game, I'd scratch my head and say, "ok, I'll pay it off" or something like that because I can afford to pay for information and I can afford to be wrong. Here you cannot. There are no more cards to come. You're either winning or you're not and if you're wrong and make the call, it is a MUCH BIGGER mistake than being wrong and folding, IMO. I can be wrong, make a bad fold and still be in fine shape in the tourney. The same cannot be said about making the wrong call.