459 replies to this topic

[aucu]

InternetExplorer, on 05 January 2013 - 08:00 PM, said:

after some more thought, I think gold probably stays put until the fed makes the transition from easy to tight. vast numbers of people bought it assuming the QEs would create instant inflation. look out below if it doesn't happen.

I fully expect gold to go down when interest rates go up, but the FED has now said it will keep interest rates down until unemployment drops say in 2 years? Imagine if interest rates were back to a historic norm of 4-5% interest payments on the $16.4 Trillion would explode which has to be a factor in keeping them down as long as they can.

The fiscal cliff really looked like a bit like a canard, taxes have to go up and spending down, they have to sort it out and all they got was a modest tax increase and nothing on the expenditure side.

[InternetExplorer]

the fiscal cliff was wholly a media thing. I'm sad for people that dumped risk in anticipation of fireworks. myself, I tripled the size of my portfolio in nov/dec.

[AmScray]

FCP Bob, on 05 January 2013 - 02:32 PM, said:

I guess there is always demand from India.

Wealthy Indian spends £14,000 on a shirt made of GOLD to impress the ladies (and if nothing else it means less ironing for them!)

I've been there a couple times now and do plan on going back.
One thing that DEFINITELY strikes me about the wealthier Indians in India is that they're still operating with significant cultural immaturity as far as how to handle their newfound wealth. You saw this sort of thing in the United States when we entered the Industrial Age and minted new-money millionaires out of people from very humble backgrounds (when a million meant something). They'd drive around in jewel encrusted cars with gold plated hardware, etc... while the rest of the world looked on, shook their heads and chuckled.

You see this kind of comically crass displays of wealth among rich Indians pretty regularly, which in a way says a lot about Indians, seeing as the average wage there is something like $2 a day and there's no doubt that if that sonofabitch walked around an impoverished area in this country, all you'd find left of him was the ghetto ribdogs chewing on his fibulae.

[aucu]

Gold and silver both off about 10% from their 30 day highs to $1601 and $29.30
The slide could continue through the end of the month,

[aucu]

Gold still falling down $50 today to $1510, Ag off $1 to $26.47

Would not want to fight the trend as this downdraft has momentum, but will be watching for an entrance point sometime over the next couple of months.

[FCP Bob]

thoughts on this Tweet ?

• 
  
  
  Mark Dow ‏@mark_dow 2h
  Gold is a tax on stupidity. Bitcoin is a tax on paranoid stupidity $GLD

[aucu]

FCP Bob, on 12 April 2013 - 07:13 AM, said:

thoughts on this Tweet ?

• 
  
  
  Mark Dow ‏@mark_dow 2h
  Gold is a tax on stupidity. Bitcoin is a tax on paranoid stupidity $GLD

Respectfully disagree with the generality but, buying anything that shows clear signs of being over bought can be called "stupidity" AAPL at $705 anyone? It's now at $430 down 39%
Gold is now $1488 off 21% from it's 2011 high of $1900.30 and this is the third time it's approached these lows since then so the case could be made that market has been sideways for about 2 years.

http://www.kitco.com.../au1825nyb.html

Goldman Sacks lowered their outlook for gold earlier this week and Cyprus announced today that things were worse than ever and that reinforced the idea that they might sell their gold.

There were a lot of smart people who were declaring that gold was a "Barbaric Relic" when it was sub $300 but fundamentals pointed up because something like 75% of the world's mines were operating at a loss at that time and it was an obvious buy. To jump in with both feet after a run up of 500% should give anyone pause.

The trend is down and as they say "a trend is a trend until it isn't" things could get even more ugly,

I'm OK unless it drops below $1350 then I'd be looking at becoming a grinder again.

[FCP Bob]

From Mark Dow that I found interesting


A Framework for thinking about Gold and Silver

[aucu]

FCP Bob, on 12 April 2013 - 12:17 PM, said:

From Mark Dow that I found interesting


A Framework for thinking about Gold and Silver

He does cover some of the fundamentals reasonably but I've seen him argue that gold has zero value and all prices paid for gold reflect a bubble, which puts him well on the extreme.

[aucu]

Gold taking another big drop today even hitting the 1300's

Starting to look like capitulation which is always a temptation.

Ag and Pt have been dragged down too and may be a more compelling opportunity because they have more high end industrial/technological uses, Pt mines were closing even before this drop, Pt production is concentrated in South Africa and Russia, and governments don't have big stockpiles that can mess up the market.

Still some room to go down but I'm thinking of buying more shares in some of the companies I'm involved with at some point soon, as a good entry point and as a show of support because being an insider I have to report my transactions to the securities commission and our investors are watching for this.

[InternetExplorer]

I hadn't checked in a long time, fairly shocked that it has fallen so far. gives me hope that we might see sub-$1000 sometime in the future, so I can possibly buy gold without it being a big goddamn deal.

I guess I just sort of rooted for you to take a big loss so I can save a few hundred dollars. for that, I do apologize.

[aucu]

InternetExplorer, on 15 April 2013 - 08:44 AM, said:

I hadn't checked in a long time, fairly shocked that it has fallen so far. gives me hope that we might see sub-$1000 sometime in the future, so I can possibly buy gold without it being a big goddamn deal.

I guess I just sort of rooted for you to take a big loss so I can save a few hundred dollars. for that, I do apologize.

That's life on the wire.

We don't buy gold, just get it out of the ground and sell it.
The value of my stocks are down a shocking amount, but even at that I'm still well in the black.
If you are thinking of buying a couple of Ozs, this week could be a good time to start, as there will be a bounce at some point, just don't know if the cat will be alive or not.

No hurry,
Keep calm,

[aucu]

15% of miners loosing money at these prices, if that number doubles we are definitely reaching a bottom.
http://business.fina...f-market-value/

Buying of the physical metal is way up and the opposite in the paper market.
http://www.reuters.c...E93G15Z20130417

[FCP Bob]

aucu, on 18 April 2013 - 05:48 AM, said:

15% of miners loosing money at these prices, if that number doubles we are definitely reaching a bottom.
http://business.fina...f-market-value/

Buying of the physical metal is way up and the opposite in the paper market.
http://www.reuters.c...E93G15Z20130417

I've seen reports that people are snapping up physical gold in China and Hong Kong right now since it seems to be a bargain which isn't surprising.

[hank213]

i've been trying to avoid the news about au/ag after just buying some. i'm trying to remind myself this is long term and i can't let the short term volatility freak me out.

[FCP Bob]

[FCP Bob]

More reports of high Chinese retail demand for gold


Chris Adams ‏@chrisadamsmkts 2h
Shanghai #gold exchange saw volumes - proxy for demand - hit record high on Monday with queues forming outside some Beijing jewellery shops

[FCP Bob]

Picture from a gold shop in China. They are rationing the amount that people can buy because of a shortage of physical gold there.

[aucu]

The price of gold has recovered about half of the drop off, buying of the physical metal is booming and the ETFs are still selling off.

[FCP Bob]

http://www.wantchina...=20130502000110

Chinese mother investors beat Wall Street tycoons in gold buying

• Staff Reporter
  
• 2013-05-02
  
• 15:18 (GMT+8)

Gold buyers crowd a jewelry store in Nanjing. (Photo/CNS)

Chinese investors, mostly mothers, swallowed 300 tonnes of gold within 10 days, accounting for nearly 10% of annual global gold production and resulting in a sharp rebound in international gold prices on April 26, the Chengdu Evening News reports.

On April 26, the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX gold futures price rose 2.7% to US$1,462 per ounce, the biggest single-day rise in a year. It was a strong rebound after international gold prices tumbled on April 12 and April 15 to US$1,321/ounce from US$1,550/ounce.

The US sold 196,500 ounces of gold coins in April, a 10-fold increase year-on-year. Analysts attributed the gold price rebound to the buying craze in Asia, especially in China, with most Chinese cities seeing heavy gold buying.

According to foreign media reports, in COMEX's spot gold sales over the past three months, JP Morgan accounted for 99.3%, indicating the company sold 1.966 million troy ounces of gold between February 1 and April 25.

Wall Street tycoon investors have been dumping gold, while Chinese investors, mostly mothers, have been buying gold crazily since mid-April amid tumbling gold prices. China's buying power is deciding the price trend for the moment, but some analysts still call for caution over the direction of gold prices in the near future, according to the report.

Analysts attributed the gold buying craze in China to abundant money supply, stagnant domestic stock markets, a contained property market and a consolidating bond market. When investors saw gold prices fall almost 20%, they jumped in to buy.

In Hong Kong, all gold stores are preparing for the May 1 holiday shopping season, having ordered four times of gold bars than usual from London and Switzerland, as they expect mainland tourists will hunt for gold.

The World Gold Council said on April 19 that it believes the strong demand and supply shortage of gold will boost the gold prices in the long run.

In 2012, the global gold demand reached 4,406 tonnes, down 4% from a year earlier, while at the same period, gold consumption in China grew 9.35% to 832.18 tonnes.