24 replies to this topic

[Young Turk]

Late night playing at The Victoria Grosvenor Casino in London, I've worked my original £75 buy-in up to £195 at the £0.50/1 NLHE table and have a TAG Tricky image; I've only shown down nice hands but have shown a few bluffs occassionally to prove I'm mixing it up. Down to 5 handed, it's late and my friend's just busted in the PLO game and is offering a ride home. So I say, '"this is my last hand guys", as another player takes down a pot.I'm dealt KdKc in the SB. UTG limps, it's folded round to me and I raise to 4. BB calls, limper calls.Flop comes 2d7dQd. I bet 8, BB raises to 20 and Limper goes all-in for a total of 95.What should I do?BB is a textbook tight player who will fold strong holdings if he has to. UTG is a LAG bully who I've seen go all-in thrice tonight; once with pair and a flush draw, the other time with pair and an open-ender, the last time with a gutshot and a flush draw.

[David_Nicoson]

Young Turk, on Thursday, August 2nd, 2007, 10:18 PM, said:

UTG is a LAG bully who I've seen go all-in thrice tonight; once with pair and a flush draw, the other time with pair and an open-ender, the last time with a gutshot and a flush draw.

I can see myself getting the money in with any of those hands, and I'm pretty tight. He might be a LAG bully, but those hands don't particularly support that idea.

[Young Turk]

David_Nicoson, on Friday, August 3rd, 2007, 4:15 AM, said:

I can see myself getting the money in with any of those hands, and I'm pretty tight. He might be a LAG bully, but those hands don't particularly support that idea.

The two aren't connected (his LAG play and the selection of hands I'm mentioning), he bluffs a lot, plays mid-pair very hard but those particular hands he's shown down are reflective of the type of hand he could have here. My read on him was Q with a high diamond, possibly the A.

[NoBBiR]

The thing is:Europeans > Americans at poker. Best vs. Best, the Americans have the better players, but generally speaking, european players are much better. This means, for me, I'm not going to assume hes a moron. If he is a LAG wouldn't he have raised (or reraised) with AdQx? I'm going to say he probably has just the Ad, maybe something like Ad7x. The more likely hands he probably holds are QxJd, 77, 22, some suited connecting diamonds, Qx7x (last ones a long shot). Depending on what you feel the BB is going to do, I'd probably shove. You have 11 outs against a set, and you're usually in the lead against the limper.BB play strongly suggests a hand more like AQ or KQ, he is more likely the one with AdQx than the limper.Also is the BB deeper than you? This could have an effect on a fold if you feel that the BB is very strong.I'd probably end up getting it in here. There is just too many hands for a LAG player to have here that were beating as opposed to that are beating us.

[petersun]

How about fold and take your 108 pound profit? =)I hate dumping all my profit last hand on a marginal situation.

[NoBBiR]

Dumping situations where you could be WA because you're afraid to lose profit means poker is not the right game for you

[sabes99]

since it's a LAG making this play, and you have the diamond to fall back on, i can't see myself folding...the only way we are in big trouble is if for some reason he has Ad-Ax

[petersun]

NoBBiR, on Thursday, August 2nd, 2007, 8:21 PM, said:

Dumping situations where you could be WA because you're afraid to lose profit means poker is not the right game for you

He is not likely to be in anything but a marginal sitaution with a tight BB who is left to act behind who reraised you and a LAG player who has shown reasonable drawing hands.I say there is very little chance you can narrow the range of the opponent such that you are WA. I would say that you're more likely WB than WA. Dumping situations is where you fall in love with one pair with a non-nut draw. People who stick it all in in these situations with one pair usually see huge swings and often very little to no profit. BB can have any of the nut flushes, trips, plus AdQx. or AdAx. LAG player can have any of the smaller flushes, trips, weird two pair, etc.It's true that they likely can have something like QxJd, or KQ, but the number of hands that make sense in a raised, reraised, all-in situation must include all the stuff that you are WB in.If he has the Ad, you are in a 50/50 situation if he has a pair. Board: 7d 2d QdDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 48.889% 48.89% 00.00% 484 0.00 { Ad7c }Hand 1: 51.111% 51.11% 00.00% 506 0.00 { KcKd }Board: 7d 2d QdDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 48.889% 48.89% 00.00% 484 0.00 { Ad2c }Hand 1: 51.111% 51.11% 00.00% 506 0.00 { KcKd }Without a pair, you are only 56/44 against Ad.Board: 7d 2d QdDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 43.737% 43.74% 00.00% 433 0.00 { Ad3c }Hand 1: 56.263% 56.26% 00.00% 557 0.00 { KcKd }Do you think neither has a made hand or at least the Ad?

[petersun]

sabes99, on Thursday, August 2nd, 2007, 8:22 PM, said:

since it's a LAG making this play, and you have the diamond to fall back on, i can't see myself folding...the only way we are in big trouble is if for some reason he has Ad-Ax

So you don't care about the BB who is left to act behind you, who is tight, and who reraised you?

[petersun]

<Deleted>

[sabes99]

petersun, on Thursday, August 2nd, 2007, 9:06 PM, said:

So you don't care about the BB who is left to act behind you, who is tight, and who reraised you?

i think you are basically presuming that the BB has a flush...he does not need to have one, he could easily have top pair and be looking to find where he stands in the hand...it's unlikely he has two pair here given the board, and if we call he may throw a set away...the only way he can have us is with a flush or possibly a set, and unless he flopped the nut flush we are still drawing live

[darkrider88]

Before I would even start thinking about the situation, I would puke under the table because this is a sick spot to be in. From the TAG player's perspective, you raised pf and bet the flop. For him to raise this flop he could have but doesn't necessarily need a monster. This could be done w/ a Q, set, or pair w/ flush draw. Then look at it from the LAG player. He's seen a pf raiser bet the flop, get raised by a TAG player, and still elects to go all in. He either has you dominated, has the Ad, or could even already have the flush. This is too murky of a situation to put your money in, be happy you got out for only 10 and fold.

[petersun]

sabes99, on Thursday, August 2nd, 2007, 10:04 PM, said:

i think you are basically presuming that the BB has a flush...he does not need to have one, he could easily have top pair and be looking to find where he stands in the hand...it's unlikely he has two pair here given the board, and if we call he may throw a set away...the only way he can have us is with a flush or possibly a set, and unless he flopped the nut flush we are still drawing live

Not at all, he could have any number of hands that have your one pair beat. As I indicated in the post previous to the one your responded to, even if one of the opponents has just the Ad with NO pair, he has 44% chance of winning. The real question at that point is: "Is my draw live?"I don't like putting my money into a pot where my pair is most likely no good, and my draw may be dead.At this level, there are much better spots to pick than this one to take a gamble. You may have the odds, but your expected value is very low. I'd rather he pushed all in pre-flop. His odds would be much better than this situation.

[Acid_Knight]

Either folding or pushing seems to be ok to me. I think that you're assuming that your comment about leaving has some impact on the hand and you're probably right. I guess it's just up to you whether you want to take what is probably a slightly +EV situation and hope it works out for you or fold and take your guaranteed winnings and head home.

[sabes99]

petersun, on Friday, August 3rd, 2007, 7:50 AM, said:

Not at all, he could have any number of hands that have your one pair beat. As I indicated in the post previous to the one your responded to, even if one of the opponents has just the Ad with NO pair, he has 44% chance of winning. The real question at that point is: "Is my draw live?"

44% equity in a three-way pot is pretty good if you ask me...and if your opponent has no pair, you shouldn't be worried about drawing, because you don't need to hit the draw, you need to dodge

petersun, on Friday, August 3rd, 2007, 7:50 AM, said:

I don't like putting my money into a pot where my pair is most likely no good, and my draw may be dead.

neither do I, but for both situations to happen one opponent must have the Ad and one must have better than one pair, and even then we still have some live outs in the hand, and when you factor in the other possible hands, it's a call

petersun, on Friday, August 3rd, 2007, 7:50 AM, said:

At this level, there are much better spots to pick than this one to take a gamble. You may have the odds, but your expected value is very low.

there are better spots, but again, your opponents have to have the Ad and two pair or better

petersun, on Friday, August 3rd, 2007, 7:50 AM, said:

I'd rather he pushed all in pre-flop. His odds would be much better than this situation.

his odds of winning the hand, yes...his odds of winning money, noand also, when you say that he could have "a number" of hands that can beat one pair, i had already mentioned them, they are the flush or the set, no other hands...again, he can't have two pair because of the flop, do you think he's calling a raise with Q-7, Q-2, or 7-2? not very likely at all

[7s7c]

What's the stack size of the BB?

[David_Nicoson]

7s7c, on Friday, August 3rd, 2007, 12:15 PM, said:

What's the stack size of the BB?

This is a very key question.

[Young Turk]

7s7c, on Friday, August 3rd, 2007, 5:15 PM, said:

What's the stack size of the BB?

Preflop Chip Stacks:UTG: 99Me: 195BB: more than 200 but less than 250, has me covered

[7s7c]

Young Turk, on Friday, August 3rd, 2007, 8:43 AM, said:

Preflop Chip Stacks:UTG: 99Me: 195BB: more than 200 but less than 250, has me covered

I muck

[petersun]

sabes99, on Friday, August 3rd, 2007, 8:10 AM, said:

44% equity in a three-way pot is pretty good if you ask me...and if your opponent has no pair, you shouldn't be worried about drawing, because you don't need to hit the draw, you need to dodgeneither do I, but for both situations to happen one opponent must have the Ad and one must have better than one pair, and even then we still have some live outs in the hand, and when you factor in the other possible hands, it's a callthere are better spots, but again, your opponents have to have the Ad and two pair or betterhis odds of winning the hand, yes...his odds of winning money, noand also, when you say that he could have "a number" of hands that can beat one pair, i had already mentioned them, they are the flush or the set, no other hands...again, he can't have two pair because of the flop, do you think he's calling a raise with Q-7, Q-2, or 7-2? not very likely at all

I don't think he has two pair at all. I think the most likely holdings for BB are AdJd, Jd10d, AdQx, any of the trips. The likely holding for the LAG is any of the smaller trips, smaller flushs, Adxx, Queen with a lessor diamond QxJd, stone cold bluff some of the time.So agains that range, and out of position we are very marginal.Now that we know the BB has us covered. It's even more of a fold.The other question I would have would be metagame considerations. Do you steam after a loss of profit like this? Will it prompt you to stay at the table to win it back? Will it ruin the rest of your evening.