TheCinciKid, on Tuesday, November 18th, 2008, 10:30 PM, said:
When I think about it, raising the turn might be good because it can clean up some of your outs. But, you're most likely behind and and it really depends on the game texture, if no one is folding anyway, then just call. If people might fold a better flush draw, or an eight with a better kicker or something because it's going to cost them two bets, then definitely go ahead and raise to clean up your outs. Otherwise, just call along.
My thoughts exactly. Absolutely no one with a better hand or better draw is folding...not a better 9, not a better flush draw, and not K8 or T8.I have 14 "outs", but I'm not sure if I win even half the time I hit one of them...and I probably like hitting the 8 or 9 more than I like hitting a flush. On the turn, I either put in 1 BB to win 20, or 2 BB to win 26. I don't think the extra bet is justified against my chances of winning outright.
On the river, I think you have to just call. Based on the game texture you described, I don't think you ever get a better hand to fold and I think you're beat often enough that raising is bad.
If I raise, and win, I'm getting 5 or 7 extra big bets (the BB might fold, no one else should).If I raise, and lose, some unknown amount of time I will lose 1 BB, and some other unknown amount of time I will lose 2 BB (I see UTG as the only potential reraiser)....and some minute number of times when UTG reraises I still win. I figure I have to have the best hand 20% of the time to break even with a raise...but maybe even that's optimistic.
Wish I could play in the one you describe here though, it sounds exceptionally juicy.
Words can't describe it. This is a game typically of regulars, and it's juicier than a 4/8 game of drunk tourists in Vegas. These guys look at LHE the same way they look at Blackjack. Agaisnt them, I'm happy to be "the house".My last 5 sessions went as follows:5 BB/hr8 BB/hr6 BB/hr 4 BB/hr35 BB/hr (yes, short session, but only possible in donkfest..guys reraising 5 high flush against two players on paired board...or reraising idiot end of straight with four clubs on board)In fact, I've only had one losing session this year.And the fact is, I KNOW I'm missing bets, and spewing others...which is why I read these boards.I'm gonna go in one night and just watch the 15/30 kill game to see how it behaves...I suppose if it's even half as juicy I need to give it a go...the bankroll's there, it's just hard to walk away from a game that behaves not unlike a free access bank machine.