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3/6 hand (live, bad). aa in a big pot


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Okay, here's a hand I played last night I thought I'd post, since I told Actuary I'd post a few hands in micro. I'm gonna do this by hand, and it'll be sloppy.Reads: CO is a good player. I've been feeling him out all night, and he's got a pretty good understanding of the game, and I know he knows I'm a strong player. We've played a few pots together. He's reasonably aggressive, but nothing over the top, or out of line. EP is a typical sack of shit. He calls too many hands, and never puts enough bets in when he's got the best of it. SB and BB are crap.I'm MP and pick up AcAsPREFLOP: EP limps, I raise, CO calls 2 cold, SB calls, BB calls, EP callsWe go to the flop with 5 players and 10sbFLOP: [Qh 7d 2c] EP bets, I raise, CO calls 2 cold, and the blinds go away.TURN (8 BB) [Qh 7d 2c.... Ks]EP bets, I raise, CO 3-bets, EP calls, I call. RIVER (17 BB) [Qh 7d 2c Ks.... 3s]EP checks, I check, CO bets, EP calls, I foldThoughts??

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I threw up on my keyboard.Please call the river for 1 unraisable bet getting 20:1. Ponder calling the flop and raising the turn in the future... someone smarter than me will tell which is best.EDIT: Scratch that... the flop raise does protect your hand.I might cap the turn just because.

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turn raise is good, getting 3 bet by the co who slowplayed up to this point sucks- as tj said, think about calling the flop and raising the turni am really unsure about the riveri would have a hell of a time laying that down getting 19-1do you think you have the best hand here more than 5% of the time?i think that could only come from a decent read on the cutoffi lean towards calling here only because folding a winner in a pot this large will ruin my whole weeknh up to the river...i'm too unsure about the river to take a side

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You're 95% sure that CO has KQ, KK, or QQ? Wow. That's certainty. I probably donate $6 dollars to the cause there unless CO flips his cards over prematurely, because I think there's a 5+% chance he's got AK. Also I'd never be able to forgive myself if I folded the winning hand in a 19 BB pot.

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I threw up on my keyboard.Please call the river for 1 unraisable bet getting 20:1. Ponder calling the flop and raising the turn in the future... someone smarter than me will tell which is best.EDIT: Scratch that... the flop raise does protect your hand.I might cap the turn just because.
1) Calling never crossed my mind.2) I think this is an easy flop raise in a big pot. I want 5 out hands gone.
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My implication with that thought was that sometimes the pot is SO big that a flop raise won't protect your hand as well as calling and raising the turn would.But your position, forcing others behind you to call two cold works very well. I'm still wondering if we should be capping the turn, and calling the river.

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My implication with that thought was that sometimes the pot is SO big that a flop raise won't protect your hand as well as calling and raising the turn would.But your position,  forcing others behind you to call two cold works very well.  I'm still wondering if we should be capping the turn, and calling the river.
This is what I want people to focus on. I think the flop play is easy, but that's not what worries me.Why do you think I should cap?Why do you think I should call the river bet?Be as specific as possible, guys.Wang
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Why do you think I should cap?
As big as the pot is on the turn, and with the board texture (very much NOT coordinated), we should be saying to ourselves on the turn we HAVE to go to showdown with this.We have 8 outs to beat two pair, and that's more likely than a set, based on frequency. And we have two outs on a set.Since EP called, we have a safe turn call... but if we get the last bet in, we can check the river to CO. CO might check two pair (a better hand) through since we capped.
Why do you think I should call the river bet?
The pot is entirely too big to fold "better than top pair" on a great board for top pair. Simple as that.[% chance of AK] >> [greater than 5%], and we're getting 19:1. 1/20 = 5%, so we have to be more than 95% sure we're losing this pot. On one pair boards you can NEVER be that sure.By "one pair boards" I mean all flushes miss and any possible straight is next-to-impossible. On this board they actually are impossible, which is quite rare.
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I think the river is a def fold based on our read that the CO is a good player. No way we get 3 bet here by anything we have beat. Its a tough fold getting the odds we're getting but for someone to call 2 cold preflop, call 2 cold on the flop then suddenly wake up on the turn and 3 bet I think KQ or a hand like 77 just makes a ton of sense. Sucks to fold the river but against any sort of competent player we are never good here.

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I think the river is a def fold based on our read that the CO is a good player. No way we get 3 bet here by anything we have beat.  Its a tough fold getting the odds we're getting but for someone to call 2 cold preflop, call 2 cold on the flop then suddenly wake up on the turn and 3 bet I think KQ or a hand like 77 just makes a ton of sense.  Sucks to fold the river but against any sort of competent player we are never good here.
No way? Never?The pot is entirely too big here to fold to one bet on the river. Call this down.
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We have 8 outs to beat two pair' date=' and that's more likely than a set, based on frequency. And we have two outs on a set.[/b']The pot is entirely too big to fold "better than top pair" on a great board for top pair. Simple as that.[% chance of AK] >> [greater than 5%], and we're getting 19:1. 1/20 = 5%, so we have to be more than 95% sure we're losing this pot. On one pair boards you can NEVER be that sure.
Good analysis on the turn call. I think people miss this often. On the turn I thought exactly that. Calling this turn is mandatory, and very, very profitable. If someone wants me to do the maths, I'm sure I could jot it all down for you, but in a pot this size, we're drawing plenty live against the range of hands CO likely hasYou know, I just hate that second bolded statement. I think it's overused, and I think some people mistakenly call bets- even in huge pots- when there's no way they can win. I call it "marginal bet" disease. It's JUST one more bet...But that call is either good or bad. It's either a winning call or a losing call.Why would I ever put the CO on AK? I can't think he has AK more than 5% of the time, or even close, for myriad reasons. I'll list (in order of perceived relevance):1) No way he doesn't 3-bet it preflop. 2) I don't think he's calling 2-cold against a strong player with just two overs and no real draws to speak of. 3) I don't think he'd open 3-bet the turn with just one-pair, when I announce that I can beat a pair of kings by raising a turn donk-bet.So, how likely now is it that he has exactly AK?Wang
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No way? Never?The pot is entirely too big here to fold to one bet on the river. Call this down.
What do you mean "entirely too big?" Give me reasons. Put him on a range of hands, and show me that my equity against reasonable holdings is such that a river-call is appropriate.Wang
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No way? Never?The pot is entirely too big here to fold to one bet on the river. Call this down.
What do you mean "entirely too big?" Give me reasons. Put him on a range of hands, and show me that my equity against reasonable holdings is such that a river-call is appropriate.Wang
After the flop, my opinion is that CO has AK, AQ, AJ, KQ maybe, or a mid to high pocket pair (including 77). The fact that he calls 2 on the flop and three bets on the turn tells me that either a)the king helped him or B) he thinks he has the better hand and was waiting for the turn to get aggressive (possibly QQ or 77) or c) he thinks he can get me to fold a hand like AQ by playing the turn K aggressively.If CO is a good player, as you say, we're beat here most of the time. But he doesn't know we have aces. As has been mentioned, we only need to win here 5% of the time for calling to be profitable in the long run. 1 out of 20 times, he could have AK or worse IMO.
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No way? Never?The pot is entirely too big here to fold to one bet on the river. Call this down.
What do you mean "entirely too big?" Give me reasons. Put him on a range of hands, and show me that my equity against reasonable holdings is such that a river-call is appropriate.Wang
After the flop, my opinion is that CO has AK, AQ, AJ, KQ maybe, or a mid to high pocket pair (including 77). The fact that he calls 2 on the flop and three bets on the turn tells me that either a)the king helped him or B) he thinks he has the better hand and was waiting for the turn to get aggressive (possibly QQ or 77) or c) he thinks he can get me to fold a hand like AQ by playing the turn K aggressively.If CO is a good player, as you say, we're beat here most of the time. But he doesn't know we have aces. As has been mentioned, we only need to win here 5% of the time for calling to be profitable in the long run. 1 out of 20 times, he could have AK or worse IMO.
AQ and AJ are complete impossibilities because of the way this hand played out. AQ 3 bets the flop and AJ folds on the flop. AK is most likely 3 betting preflop or if hes going to play it weak passively hes going to fold on the flop for 2 bets. No unsetted mid pp is ever going to 3 bet this turn on that board with that much aggression in front of him. A set or a hand like KQ are really the only likely holdings based on the way the flop and preflop played out.
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Someday, you WILL be able to make a laydown like that. You can go to the buffet at Binion's with the bet you've saved, buy a shrimp cocktail, and maybe even treat a friend. You'll feel so smart and life will be beautiful.Feeling like a champ, you'll make a laydown like that again in another 50 BB pot. Except THAT time, a drunk moron with Q-2 will scoop your 50 BB pot, buy the cocktail waitress a fur coat, and fuck her blue for a week.Now which would you rather be: the smart one with the shrimp cocktail, or the stupid one with the sore dick?
It's more than twice as important to win a 20 BB pot than it is to win a 10 BB pot, I think.
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To which Izmet Fekali, a.k.a. DERB (doesn't ever run bad) had a hilarious response. Izmet Fekali made headlines when a thread popped up on 2+2. Someone had datamined the 30/60 game, and found him to be bettter than a 2.0 bb/100 hand winner at the 30/60 OVER 140k HANDS!
Someday, you WILL be able to make a laydown like that. You can go to the buffet at Binion's with the bet you've saved, buy a shrimp cocktail, and maybe even treat a friend. You'll feel so smart and life will be beautiful.Feeling like a champ, you'll make a laydown like that again in another 50 BB pot. Except THAT time, a drunk moron with Q-2 will scoop your 50 BB pot, buy the cocktail waitress a fur coat, and fuck her blue for a week.
It's more than twice as important to win a 20 BB pot than it is to win a 10 BB pot, I think.
Okay, I'll refute, in list form1) The pot wasn't 50BB. It was <20BB. Just so you know. Big deal.2) I wasn't playing a drunk ashole, nor was the original 30/60 player that mucked his KK. If you're playing someone who is drunk or stupid, you can't be more than 50% sure of much of anything, and the situation changes3) Obviously it's more than twice as important to win a 20BB pot compared to a 10BB pot. If that's not immediately mathematically apparent to you, you probably napped through a few days of middle schoolWang
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{My post was directed to all Limit players who don't post hands. Just trying to find out why. But having this in the Micro section is cool.}Ok.CO is Strong Player. Called 2 cold PF. That's a PP or Axs, or strong suited connector. Once he calls the flop for two cold and there are no draws, it's a made hand, and usually a set if he's good. Waiting for turn, expecting you to lead out, makes sense. EP has a Q most of the time, or an under pair, less so.Turn: EP leading out says Q with KQ looking very possible. If the read is he is apt to miss bets, then even he loves the hand now. With no draws present, you should raise for value here, if that is still the case. Between CO calling two cold on a drawless flop, and EP leading the turn, I do not see this as a value raise. River: Why call the turn raise and fold the river? You weren't drawing to hit the 22:1 shot getting 17:1 were you? Or was it a combination, metagame+2 outs play? Once you show strength on the turn, you can fold to the CO raise, and EP call, given the reads.I could see just calling the turn, expecting to be behind here, but then CO raise would be less of a signal. Although, given the flop action, I can still see a fold to the CO raise, even if we did not.*** read replies ****don't call the turn and fold the river.just don't call the turn raisewow.... CO hardly ever has Ak-J here.Shimmering:Yes, we have outs to beat two pair. That's why we don't fold to EP. But we have 2 outs to beat a set. I put CO on 22/77 far more than any combination of Q72K. KQs is foolish to not 3-bet the flop. I don't think you have odds to continue after the flop raise.

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Shimmering:Yes, we have outs to beat two pair. That's why we don't fold to EP. But we have 2 outs to beat a set. I put CO on 22/77 far more than any combination of Q72K. KQs is foolish to not 3-bet the flop. I don't think you have odds to continue after the flop raise.
I think you're wrong, here.I don't think he's all that likely to call 2-cold with KK, QQ or 77. He MIGHT have 77, but KQ is much more likely.I'm getting the odds to run down "KQ or 77" for sure, even when we ignore my implied odds. I'll usually win 2 bets when a 7 or a 2 comes off by check/calling. Even if this doesn't promote my hand to a better 2 pair, I only lose one bet.When an ace comes off, I'll win somewhere between 2 and 4 bets, and an ace never loses me the pot.The turn call is absolutely mandatory.And the river fold is necessary, too, given my read.Wang
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Interesting hand.Like you said, this is almost identical to the GoT hand. (Did you actually play this?)The main factor is that you know CO won't 3-bet the turn with just top pair. So you put him on either a set or two pair. If he has a set, you're drawing pretty slim. If he has 2 pair, you are drawing very live. Given the size of the pot, he doesn't have to have 2 pair all that often for you to have a correct call on the turn.

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Interesting hand.Like you said, this is almost identical to the GoT hand. (Did you actually play this?)The main factor is that you know CO won't 3-bet the turn with just top pair. So you put him on either a set or two pair. If he has a set, you're drawing pretty slim. If he has 2 pair, you are drawing very live. Given the size of the pot, he doesn't have to have 2 pair all that often for you to have a correct call on the turn.
Yeah, this really did happen last night, and I decided I had to post it because it was almost IDENTICAL to the GoT thread, and that is one of my absolute favorites.I think too many people go into "pot's big, gotta call on the river" mode when it's really a bad decision to do so. It's a lot easier for me to make this laydown live (especially when I am drunk and want to showoff by mucking faceup), but I've been doing a lot better at folding turns and rivers, and I really think hands like this are important.Based on some pretty elementary hand reading and some pretty basic math, this goes from a tough "crying call" to a clearcut fold on this river.The number of people that think this is AK a reasonable portion of the time disturbs me.Wang
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The number of people that think this is AK a reasonable portion of the time disturbs me.
Yeah, AK just doesn't add up. If CO was passive enough to play AK this way on the preflop, then weird enough to cold call with it on the flop, I don't think he's the type of player that would 3-bet the turn with just TPTK against 2 other opponents that have shown strenght.No only that, you still have BB to worry about. He pulled a stop n' go, and then cold called 2 on the turn. You're likely in 3rd place.Very nice hand. I think it's a good hand reading exercise a lot of people can learn from. Most of the 'call the river at any cost' stuff comes from SSHE. The reason Ed Miller put that in his book is because too many people at 2+2 were making all sorts of stupid pro laydowns. Now you start to see the reverse.
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Most of the 'call the river at any cost' stuff comes from SSHE. The reason Ed Miller put that in his book is because too many people at 2+2 were making all sorts of stupid pro laydowns. Now you start to see the reverse.
Yeah, and it's getting pathological. I think, in general, it's a much worse mistake to be making too many bad river folds than it is to be making too many bad river calls, but there's no reason you shouldn't have a matrix in place for evaluating your river decisions. Too many people just completely forego that part of the game.Playing rivers can be hard work, but anyone who's reading: thinking critically and concretely about them pays off. Two of the superstar/supercrap college-aged kids at my table last night just laughed out loud when the saw the fold, and said I was terrible. I immediately declared that the CO had either exactly KQs or 77. I was right, and a girl at the table was impressed, and I got her number. MORAL: Do, do intense river analysis and increase your odds of snaggin' a beejWang
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Shimmering:Yes, we have outs to beat two pair. That's why we don't fold to EP. But we have 2 outs to beat a set. I put CO on 22/77 far more than any combination of Q72K. KQs is foolish to not 3-bet the flop. I don't think you have odds to continue after the flop raise.
I think you're wrong, here.Wang
that's ok.You can still learn. :club: So he cold calls a raise with KQ. KQs has 2 combination. KQ off calls less often here. KQ also 3-bets the flop a lot. 77, and to an almost identicle extent 22, always call one raise preflop. 77/22 are also more likely to not 3-bet the flop. It's drawless.Pot size when you call turn Raise = 16 BBIf Ace hits river, say you win 3 betsIf 7/2 comes, say you win 2 bets or lose 1.Let's ignore EP (who I put on KQ, or a worse two pair)We have 8 outs to beat KQ (9 combinations)We have 2 outs to beat 77/22 (12 combinations) (I think he 3 -bets QQ/KK preflop, so I'll ignore them)Ave outs: +(8*9 + 2*12) / 21 = 4.6 outs. = Requires a 9 BB profit.River:Calculating Expected Profit from Turn Call:Ace: (2/46) * 192/7: (6/46) * (9/21) * 182/7: (4/46) * (12/21) * -2Other: (38/46) * -1= 0.9 BB.damn. Playing with the Frequency of KQ vs 77/22 shows that he has to have 77/22 way more often to make fodling the Turn correct.I do think he has 77/22 more than the pure 9 vs 12 combinations; however, not enough to fold.I amend my prior recommendation.nh, sir.
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