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turn 14-outter (limit he)


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#1 akishore

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 07:57 PM

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is MP2 with 6:diamond:, T:diamond:. MP1 posts a blind of $1. Hero posts a blind of $1. UTG raises.Flop: (13 SB) 4:diamond:, 6:heart:, Q:diamond: (6 players)SB checks, UTG bets, Button calls, SB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.Turn: (11.50 BB) J:heart: (5 players)UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero ___, ...just wondering how many of you check here and how many of you bet here. we have one player to act after us on the button.aseem
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#2 Guest_XXEddie_*

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 07:58 PM

checksyour flop raise got you a free card, take it since youre still behind

#3 brando

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 08:11 PM

I would bet, w/ 14 outs you're ~30% to win soif 2 call, -evif 3 call, +evif 4 call, + evso bet right?****EDIT***assuming we have 14 outs

#4 princeof56k

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 08:15 PM

First let me say that I've never been a big fan of the free card play when a non-scare card comes on the turn. Mainly because when you do this and check the turn, every will know what you are doing, and you wont get action if your flush hits on the river. I think the free card play works better when a scare card hits on the turn (like an Ace not of your suit). At least it looks like you had a pair of Qs and someone with an Ace might bet into you on the river even when the flush hits.I also like the free card play with straight draws more than flush draws (and I still want the scare card on the turn). Straight draws are harder to spot and I'm more likely to get action when I hit. Really I rarely use the free card play anyways.Here I would bet. I'm thinking this is a bet for value and NOT to thin the field. We are likely to get more action on the river when the flush hits as most people will think we had TP. I dont think the button folds there, but we still might get a chance at a free showdown if we miss (although I'm sure a pair of sixes isnt going win here, as least we give the impression that we will raise/bet a pair of sixes).

#5 akishore

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 08:20 PM

why is everyone assuming i raised the flop for a free card?i had a pair and a flush draw, massive equity edge. it was just a raise for value, and it just happened to be in position.aseem
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#6 princeof56k

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 08:37 PM

akishore said:

why is everyone assuming i raised the flop for a free card?i had a pair and a flush draw, massive equity edge. it was just a raise for value, and it just happened to be in position.aseem
I was commenting on the free card play because everyone else was saying check. The way I like to think about it is... if you raise and then check, its a free card play. If you raise and then bet out, its a value play. Am I thinking about this wrong? And I would bet out on the turn BTW.

#7 custom36

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 08:38 PM

I bet. If more than 2 people call, a bet here is +EV. This looks like a real loose table, and I'm thinking more than 2 people are going to call. If we miss, we miss, but this seems like a good spot to bet.

#8 Guest_XXEddie_*

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 09:56 PM

akishore said:

why is everyone assuming i raised the flop for a free card?i had a pair and a flush draw, massive equity edge. it was just a raise for value, and it just happened to be in position.aseem
I didnt assume you raise for the free card. but this is a perfect example of why a hand like yours is often overplayed.YOU HAVE A PAIR OF SIXES AND A CRUMMY KICKER!!!!sure you have 14 possible outs, but someone could easily have you beat and someone else could have a higher flush draw. so there goes all but 6 outs. Yes you have strong draws, but at this point they are only hitting about 30% of the time

#9 akishore

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 10:00 PM

eddie, stop thinking about the value of my hand or even that i'm on a draw.equity is the only thing that matters.aseem
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#10 Don Giovanni

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 10:04 PM

XXEddie said:

akishore said:

why is everyone assuming i raised the flop for a free card?i had a pair and a flush draw, massive equity edge. it was just a raise for value, and it just happened to be in position.aseem
I didnt assume you raise for the free card. but this is a perfect example of why a hand like yours is often overplayed.YOU HAVE A PAIR OF SIXES AND A CRUMMY KICKER!!!!sure you have 14 possible outs, but someone could easily have you beat and someone else could have a higher flush draw. so there goes all but 6 outs. Yes you have strong draws, but at this point they are only hitting about 30% of the time
no one else there has more than a pair, the only outs that are questionable are the 10s, becuase they are likely to give a higher 2 pair or straight. raise the draw.

#11 Don Giovanni

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 10:06 PM

akishore said:

why is everyone assuming i raised the flop for a free card?i had a pair and a flush draw, massive equity edge. it was just a raise for value, and it just happened to be in position.aseem
i agree, you should bet the turn.

#12 akishore

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 10:20 PM

ok, so to recap, i have 10 :D 6 :) on a board of Q :) J :club: 6 :D 4 :) .i think my flush draw is pretty clean, enough to give it 8 outs or so. no one's shown much aggression, so i don't have to worry about two pair or a set or anything like that, and a draw to the fourth-nut-flush is good.i'm pretty sure i can give myself 1.5 outs for another 6. trip 6's would likely win it, and it can't be another heart then, either.the 10's are not that clean, but i'd give myself 1.5 outs for them. the 10 :D sucks, but then again, it would be a backdoor flush, so i think that's a little less likely of that helping someone hit a flush. it could make someone a straight, but that's also a little unlikely considering it would be a backdoor straight. it could also make me a two pair that gets beat by another two pair, but that's probably not as likely either since no one has shown aggression yet and there would only be two tens left in the deck. those three things combined, though, make the 10's a little unattractive.so all in all, i'd estimate i have about 11 outs. during the hand, i actually estimated 12 off the top of my head, i think, but close enough, eh?that gives me roughly 25% equity, so if i bet, i'd need to get three callers to be around break-even, and ideally, i'd need all four to call to really show a profit. i didn't think betting was too attractive because i would need all four callers to show a profit.the biggest thing in my mind, though, was the horror that would be if i bet and the button raised, making three whole players face two cold. that would suck!a way better alternative, then, would be if i checked and the button bet! buttons tend to be aggressive when it's checked to them in general, right? then, if all three players called, i could then raise! how beautiful would that be?_finally_, getting a free card here isn't bad at all!all things considered, i checked, and i'm pretty sure checking is the better move.aseem
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