first hand of rounders: did he have to go broke?

[themilkmanishere 0]

If you've ever seen rounders, you know the first hand of the movie. Matt Damon gets nines full of aces, Teddy KGB flps over pocket aces for aces full, and matt loses all his money. If you haven't seen the movie, i reccomend it. Anyway while watchingthe movie, my freind asks me "is there any way he could have not gone broke that hand" I wasn't sure, but after analyzing it, i think he could have saved his last 15K. heres my analysis of the hand.Matt picks up ace nine suited, and raises. KGB, who i assume is a blind, remakrs to the table "position riase" and calls. Flop comes down A 9 3, with two spades. Matt thnks to himself " iwant to overbet, make it look like im tryin to steal it, so i get paid off". It's a good move, and he overbets. KGB calls. Turn comes another 9, and now matts got nines full. he thnks "im puttin KGB on a flush draw, so i want a spade to fall so he can pay me off w/ my nines full". KGB checks, matt checks. neway river comes a low spade. Matt assunmes KGB just hit his flush, as KGB bets a HUGE amount (I'm not sure what it was, but i know it was a gigantic amount, about half of matt's stack"). Matt acts like hes thinking, then RERAISES ALL IN, and KGB calls. Now watching this movie, it looks like at first glance there was no way matt could have saved his money, but i think he could have. First of all, there was a small chance KGB was on the come with a flush draw. the first reason is that he called a huge bet on the flop. Matt knows KGB is an extremely good player, and its unlikely a great player is going to call on the come heads up when the pot odds are extrmeely in favor of folding. One could make the arguement for the implied odds, but i dont see how a flush draw could call this bet, especially in a cash game.Even if he did factor in implied odds, KGB stil lcouldnt have the flush draw. the reason being is that he played the hand EXACTLY LIKE A FLUSH DRAW! Someone as tricky as KGB wouldn't make his hand that obvious. Of course it looked like to Matt KGB was onthe come, with check, call, check. However, Matt should have realized that there was no way KGB would play a flush draw likethat. Finally, KGB probably didn't have the flush draw because of the way matt played the hand. Matt's play is typical of a flush draw. A semi-bluff on the flop, and a free card on the turn. Matt should have realized how much his play looked like a flush draw to KGB. He should have thought "Theres a good chance KGB thinks i have a flush draw. Therefore, when a spade came on the river, completing a hypothetical flush draw, and yet hes betting, that means that either he a.has the nut flush or b.has the nut flush beat. Realizing this and the above matt should have thought "ok if hes not on the flush draw and doenst have the flush, then hes gotta have somthing to callthe huge flop bet, and to bet the river when a spade hits" So then matt should weigh which hand KGB could have that in this situation. Basicially, the hands would be a smaller two pair off the flop, the nut flush made on theriver, or a set off the flop. Based on KGB's play, theres a reasonable chance that he has a boat, just like matt, since it isnt likely hes on the flush draw and he bet when the flush was made. There are two other boats, one of them being lower and one of them beng higher. the boat that was higher though, would be pocket aces.AT this point matt should have thought "Based on the way he played the hand, could he have aces." And the answer is absolutley yes! KGB's play is one of setting an extrmeely deep trap. Does this mean matt should have folded? NO. No way you can make that lay down. Too many hands KGB could have. He could have the nut flush, the smaller boat, or some weird bluff. However, when KGB bets a huge amount on the river, just calling would have been the better move, considering there was one posible hand that had A9 beat that KGB could have. Overall, Matt put too much weight on his read of KGB being on the come. He should have just called on the end. He was outplayed. Matt even admits to Knish later in the movie that he was "outplayed". Unfortunatley, it cost him his whole bankroll.What do you think? Am i off in some places, and if so, where? It's a really interesting hand.Dave

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

I object to this being moved to this forum.

[sirphatticus 0]

I object to this being moved to this forum.

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

My first thread.http://fullcontactpoker.com/poker-forums/v...5927&highlight=I learned a lesson from it. You should too.I hope the next 3000 posts of mine are as witty, helpful, and brief as the first 3000.

[kcb 0]

tl, dr

[kcb 0]

tl, dr

[DrZebra 0]

TJ, I read your 'system' and totally agree with it. The MTT's on party are pretty forgiving if you don't race and raise huge with huge hands.What did you decide about AQoff?Personally, in the later stages of the tournament, (blinds usually around 500/1000) I pass with AQoff in early position, try to 'steal' with it late and generally fold to a raise unless the raiser is a short stack push.I've been questioning my choice of play with regards to the shortstack push. How worthwhile is picking up 2 BB's when you have less than 10 and losing 2 could hurt?

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

I can't tell if you're being serious or sarcastic.Either way. Between 3000 posts and now I've evaluated my opinion about a couple of things.I'm being sarcastic, because being so literal makes it less funny.

[DrZebra 0]

I wish I got it. I wish I were as drunk as you right now.Seriously, you said you didn't know what to do with AQo in MTT play and given that the hand that takes most people out of MTT's has got to be either AQ or JJ, it might be worth discussion. Fuck the rounders thing.

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

Lol, no, I drank enough this weekend.What I was missing out when I wrote that was that my game depends a lot more on how I've observed my opponents play than it used to.It's not as simple as "always fold AQ against a raise." Who raised? And what else have you seen them do?

[DrZebra 0]

Obviously, but that element of the game is severely depleted at the stage of the tournament at which one person pushes each hand and every 8 hands there's a call and someone's out.Granted there's no rules, but there should be discussion.Playing UTG or UTG+1 doesn't depend on reads of other players (except who's in the blinds.)There are only two types of stealing when CO or on the Button: stealing from Big stacks or stealing from smaLL stacks.etc....

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

...Which is why I'm laughing hysterically re-reading this, talking about Party's structure being "good."And thinking there were actually some system to it all, and that I could find it and just chill and play 50 tournaments a day.TP/MM wasn't cool by then yet, I don't think lol.

[DrZebra 0]

I think the tournaments are good. There's so many dead chips early on. You should be ending the first hour with 4-6k easily. The only thing I dislike is that the payouts are such that you have to make the top percentile for any good money.what's TP/MM? top pair-mason malmuth?

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

Turn Pro/Make Millions.Now I hate things like sit and go's where structures lead to pre-flop move ins.

[TheIceman05 0]

I think the tournaments are good. There's so many dead chips early on. You should be ending the first hour with 4-6k easily. The only thing I dislike is that the payouts are such that you have to make the top percentile for any good money.what's TP/MM? top pair-mason malmuth?

Yeah. Now it is.Grizzled Poker Veteran, playing 5 card draw: "I hope you got a good hand. Because you'll need it to beat my... straight flush. What 'choo goy, boy?"Me, spreading cards on table with flair: "Top Pair: Mason Malmuth."(oooohs and aaaaaahs)Ice

[Chief 0]

jumpin jimmeny i aint never hearda roundeurshe coulda avoided goin' broke by foldin' the A9 cuz he was probably up against bigger slicker with the heavier kicker ya know what i mean, jellybean?or he coulda stayed home and ate some popsicles.

[macphec 0]

I think the tournaments are good. There's so many dead chips early on. You should be ending the first hour with 4-6k easily. The only thing I dislike is that the payouts are such that you have to make the top percentile for any good money.what's TP/MM? top pair-mason malmuth?

Yeah. Now it is.Grizzled Poker Veteran, playing 5 card draw: "I hope you got a good hand. Because you'll need it to beat my... straight flush. What 'choo goy, boy?"Me, spreading cards on table with flair: "Top Pair: Mason Malmuth."(oooohs and aaaaaahs)Ice

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!Damn I love this thread.