Aksuited Utg, 2nd Hand

[BeaverStyle 1]

No real reads..PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)CO (t3240)Button (t1440)SB (t1480)BB (t1440)Hero (t1500)UTG+1 (t1500)MP1 (t1400)MP2 (t1500)Preflop: Hero is UTG with K , A . Hero raises to t70, 4 folds, Button calls t70, 2 folds.Flop: (t170) K , 9 , 4 (2 players)Hero bets t100, Button calls t100.Turn: (t370) A (2 players)Hero bets t180, Button raises to t460, Hero ????????For some reason I feel i'm gonna get a response followed by AINEC

[mikeysong 0]

chuck the hand away, more often than not you're behindit's so early in the field that u're not committed. If he's a sly devil and bluffed you, sucks =/ But you only have 4outs to improve if u're behind so....bye hand

[BeaverStyle 1]

I think that's a pretty weak/tight approach to the situation. Villain could easily have many two pair combinations, AXh, and I believe there are many hands I'm ahead of, and more that I'm ahead of than I'm behind..Any others?

[Gallo 1]

I think that's a pretty weak/tight approach to the situation. Villain could easily have many two pair combinations, AXh, and I believe there are many hands I'm ahead of, and more that I'm ahead of than I'm behind..Any others?

Agreed. You have top 2 pair, if he has a set, oh well. But like you said there are more hands that you are ahead of than behind. My chips will be going in the pot here though. Question is if villain will come along for the ride? So, if my thinking is that I'm ahead here, I might just call his raise and let him take the lead on the river, hopefully. Or just shove on turn.

[simo_8ball 0]

This is the $4.40 game. This isn't a bluff. This is a bet looking for value. What can he play like this?Flush: $4.40. Sooooooooted. A flush is played EXACTLY like this.Set: I think a set is played like this, but I would have expected a bit of a bigger raise. Definitely possible.[K9,K4,A4,A9,AK,94]: Again, very possible.Any hand with just Kh: I would expect a call here rather than a raise.You have 250 in the pot, and his raise asks a lot of questions.There are a multitude of options available.Push allin: Not a terrible move. He won't fold 2 pair, so I think you are ahead of a lot of hands. You obviously get called when you are beat. The pot is already over 1000, so I think this is profitable.Folding: Too weak.Calling: I don't see this as an option. You are left with less than $1k and a huge pot in front of you. The 6s hits on the river - do you push? Check call? Check fold? What about if a heart hits?I think the only real option is to push. I'll maybe run through a few numbers to confirm, but I can't be bothered at the moment.

[Gallo 1]

This is the $4.40 game. This isn't a bluff. This is a bet looking for value. What can he play like this?Flush: $4.40. Sooooooooted. A flush is played EXACTLY like this.Set: I think a set is played like this, but I would have expected a bit of a bigger raise. Definitely possible.[K9,K4,A4,A9,AK,94]: Again, very possible.Any hand with just Kh: I would expect a call here rather than a raise.You have 250 in the pot, and his raise asks a lot of questions.There are a multitude of options available.Push allin: Not a terrible move. He won't fold 2 pair, so I think you are ahead of a lot of hands. You obviously get called when you are beat. The pot is already over 1000, so I think this is profitable.Folding: Too weak.Calling: I don't see this as an option. You are left with less than $1k and a huge pot in front of you. The 6s hits on the river - do you push? Check call? Check fold? What about if a heart hits?I think the only real option is to push. I'll maybe run through a few numbers to confirm, but I can't be bothered at the moment.

Oops, didn't realize the suits, thought it was 2 diamonds and 2 hearts.Sux. Probably fold here.

[simo_8ball 0]

I don't think you can fold here with $1k in the pot. It's far, far too weak.

[copernicus 0]

Bet the pot on the flop. Make it clear to him that if hes drawing hes going to pay. If hes still around, the pot is 540, and you both have 1200 or so behind when the Ah hits. I would bet around 350. That sends a message that you might well call a semi-bluff. If he pushes back hes on the flush, semibluff, some A hand, or the sets. I dont love a call if he does, but there are a lot of semibluff hands as well as As thinking they are good, so you probably have to..hopefully being more aggressive earlier saves you from the decision.

[Actuary 3]

betting 70 more on the flop saves nothing, Copernicus.Not sure villain would play any hand differntly.With these low blinds, I can call the raise and c/f any decent river bet.Hopefully, a weaker hand chcks behind on river.short stack with low blinds doesn't phase me

[simo_8ball 0]

I think he bets 2 pair on a blank river if checked to. If we call on the turn, we have less than the size of the pot left, and we can just blindly hope that he will check behind on the river.I actually bet more on the flop and definitely more on the turn.

[iggymcfly 0]

The problem with a $4.40 is that it's so low stakes that I'm not even sure that BDS (basic donkey strategy) applies. Yeah, he's representing strength, but for all we know, that could mean he turned an ace and is now trying to get value against a naked king. As painful as it is, I think the play might be to make a crying call here and then another crying call on the river.On the bright side, villian might be weak enough to bet < 1/2 the pot on the river with a flush if we take long enough on the turn call. I'd try to take as cheap of a showdown as possible. Also, it's not a huge consideration, but that 1 in 11 chance we have of winning outright against a flush is worth something too. Possibly enough to sway an extremely close decision.

[Actuary 3]

betting 70 more on the flop saves nothing, Copernicus.Not sure villain would play any hand differntly.With these low blinds, I can call the raise and c/f any decent river bet.Hopefully, a weaker hand chcks behind on river.short stack with low blinds doesn't phase me

While if we're left with 250, I could survive, this situation to me just comes down to a guess. You can over bet the flop, like 300 and if he thinks you'll charge on the turn as well and he can actually think, he might laydown a flush draw. But that bet gets no value from a thinking player. So either push now on the turn or call down. It's a guess.Can anyone really add anything to that?

[throwemaway 0]

The key in 4.40s and any MTT is to accumulate..not survive IMOAlso, the play is just so bad in these that I just will not fold top 2 pair in situations like this..Players love to bluff early on, and you have no idea if he is that type..But since most 4.40 players are BAD, I would push the turn..Like someone else said, he very well could think his AQ or AJ is good when he leaked the flop, or thought he hit gin with Ace 9..Results?

[BeaverStyle 1]

I pushed all in and he folded.Either he thought his Ax was good, or was trying to represent the A.I ended up taking 2nd in this $4.40, even though I had him all in twice during HU as a huge dog, and the man sucked out.Even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while.

[throwemaway 0]

I pushed all in and he folded.Either he thought his Ax was good, or was trying to represent the A.I ended up taking 2nd in this $4.40, even though I had him all in twice during HU as a huge dog, and the man sucked out.Even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while.

Thus explaining how you even got to 2nd!

[copernicus 0]

betting 70 more on the flop saves nothing, Copernicus.Not sure villain would play any hand differntly.With these low blinds, I can call the raise and c/f any decent river bet.Hopefully, a weaker hand chcks behind on river.short stack with low blinds doesn't phase me

Youre probably right 2:7:1 vs 2:1 at these stakes isnt likely to make a difference in his play. Note DNs strategy post about bet sizing though...betting pot in this position at least builds it at a point where youve probably got the best hand.

[Zach6668 513]

Does anyone ever just say, it's the 2nd hand. I'm either winning this pot, and doubling up, and maybe going deep, or I'm losing and firing up another one?Does this make any sense in terms of EV and/or hourly expectation?Ie, we are wasting 2 minutes, but we could either be primed to make a run here, or we could fold and have like 800 chips left, or we could push, be ahead some, suck out other times, lose some, and spend our time more effectively on the next one.Thoughts?- Zach

[copernicus 0]

Does anyone ever just say, it's the 2nd hand. I'm either winning this pot, and doubling up, and maybe going deep, or I'm losing and firing up another one?Does this make any sense in terms of EV and/or hourly expectation?Ie, we are wasting 2 minutes, but we could either be primed to make a run here, or we could fold and have like 800 chips left, or we could push, be ahead some, suck out other times, lose some, and spend our time more effectively on the next one.Thoughts?- Zach

Yes, some people say that...and they are wrong. Correct SnG strategy is tight tighter tightest. 20% of the prize pool for the first paid spot is too valuable to donk off a lot of 0% returns on gambles.The "additional chips lose value" principle has its strongest application in shallow payout structures such as SnGs. While an early double up may double the probability that youll finish first, it hurts the probabilities that you'll finish 2d and 3rd (you cant finish in more than 1 place), so your EV doesnt double with an early double up. When your play risks 2d and 3rd at the expense of doubling up, you need far better winning chances for the hand.

[Zach6668 513]

Yes, some people say that...and they are wrong. Correct SnG strategy is tight tighter tightest. 20% of the prize pool for the first paid spot is too valuable to donk off a lot of 0% returns on gambles.The "additional chips lose value" principle has its strongest application in shallow payout structures such as SnGs. While an early double up may double the probability that youll finish first, it hurts the probabilities that you'll finish 2d and 3rd (you cant finish in more than 1 place), so your EV doesnt double with an early double up. When your play risks 2d and 3rd at the expense of doubling up, you need far better winning chances for the hand.

Yeah ok.I was just curious on your thoughts.Thanks.

[Actuary 3]

Yeah ok.I was just curious on your thoughts.Thanks.

Copernicus is scary smart about this stuff.Personally, I take pride in my ability to hang on a cash after 45 min with a short stack.

While an early double up may double the probability that youll finish first, it hurts the probabilities that you'll finish 2d and 3rd (you cant finish in more than 1 place), so your EV doesnt double with an early double up

can't it boost all your cash spots?It just lowers your chance of not cashing at all.right?

[Zach6668 513]

Copernicus is scary smart about this stuff.

This is why I accept.I do not question.

[Actuary 3]

This is why I accept.I do not question.

I can't get enough of being shown his brillance in my face from various angles!so I question

[copernicus 0]

can't it boost all your cash spots?It just lowers your chance of not cashing at all.right?

Youre better at conditional probabilities than I am, but I believe the answer is no. SnGPT shows a less than proportional increase in $EV for doubling up, at least at initial blinds (ie deep stacks) whether or not you are below average, average, or above average stack before doubling up.My gut feel of the conditional probabilities is that the probability of finishing in all of the other spots are decreased proportionally but that could be wrong. Once the guy coding ICM for me finishes (hes two days late...i think its harder than he thought, and he has a masters in P&S, so I dont feel so bad), I'll have a more definitive answer.

[simo_8ball 0]

Given that doubling up first hand of a STT doesn't double your equity, what % do you need to be for it to be break-even to be allin on the first hand (assuming blinds are negligible for simplicity)?

[Actuary 3]

My gut feel of the conditional probabilities is that the probability of finishing in all of the other spots are decreased proportionally but that could be wrong. Once the guy coding ICM for me finishes (hes two days late...i think its harder than he thought, and he has a masters in P&S, so I dont feel so bad), I'll have a more definitive answer.

my gut in 10 handed play, you will increase your chances of finishing in the top several spots.. 1-3, 1-5 maybe. For example vour chance to finish 2nd will go up because while the probabilities of the others finishing 1st go down (seemingly hurting your chances to finish 2nd) your stack compared to the others vying for 2nd is enough larger now to offset that. Because your stack is still 2x bigger than it was, yet the individual probabilities of the others to finish 1st are not cut in half. But that equates to a less than 100% increase chance of getting 2nd, 3rd, etc.Only after you get a few spots down will your chance to get that spot decrease relative to pre-doubling. As you go down in spots the cumulative probabilities of others filling those upper spots will have decreased enough to make it less likely you are competing for the lower spots.But we all know that chip proportions are bad predictors anyway.hope that made sense, it did in my head.