FLUSH draw VS one other person

[Guest]

how many of you take your flush draws all the way to the river if there is just one other person playing you for the pot? i know i habitually do every time i have 4 to a flush [calling flop and turn if it seems like my opponent has a good hand], but now i think about pot odds a LOT more than i used to when playing limit, and obviously it would be more worth it to call to the river if there were 3-4+ people in the pot, rather than just me and that opponent.ok 2 pot odds examples in, say 5/10: EXAMPLE 1 player D [tight player] raises to 10, everyone folds, i'm on the BB with A10s, i call another 5. flop comes K 8 9. player D bets, i call with the nut flush draw. turn is a blank. he bets again. now here is where i usually call again, hoping to hit the flush, and in terms of pot odds, i would be betting 10 into a 42 dollar pot, which is roughly 4:1. EXAMPLE 2 player D raises to 10, player E calls, SB calls and i call. player D bets flop, player E calls, SB folds, i call. player D bets again on the turn, and player E calls. now i would be betting 10 into a 75 dollar pot, so 7.5:1, which is a lot more favorable than the example before. i could profit 33+ more in chips...

[wrto4556 0]

I think a call would be correct in the situation you described. Anyone else agree or is my math outta wack.

[ddudley 0]

I beleive you are 4.1 to 1 when drawing to the flush on the river. With impied odds, I think you are good. Also, if you add in the 3 aces as possible outs then you are also getting favorable odds to draw another card.I think the first situation you describe is the absolute worst case senario when drawing to a flush, so I always draw to the flush even if there is only one other person in the pot.

[naugie 0]

Yes both cases are correct to call on the turn. Scenario one is correct if you think that if you hit your flush, you could still get another bet from player D. That bet would imply your 5:1 odds, and it is correct.

[KKsuited 0]

I didn't even read the examples, but in general chancing a flush draw with only one other person in the pot will lose you money in the long run, regardless of implied odds.Here's the math to prove it out.Flush hits roughly 35%, which means you need 2-1 odds. ie, you will win once, your opponent will when twice.So if your betting $10 and your opponent s calling $10 and say the one hand you win $40 win the flush hits. Then on the 2 you lose, you lose $80. Thus, you need at least one other person in the pot to make chasing even a break even bet.Hopefully I have insulted anyone with this very simple example. For people who don't understand why you have to consider odds, this should help. Don't chase b/c you "think your going to hit this time". Always look at the odds.Hope this helps.

[naugie 0]

in general this might be correct, but the last bet on the end is only going to be called if you hit your flush, so that bet is extra, and makes it more profitable. Then, you might raise and still be called and win another. Of course, if you draw to a flush with a paired board, that will cause more loser flushes, but you don't just say staying with one person is not profitable. It is the payoff that makes it profitable or not profitable.

[Guest]

thanks for all the input, let me do some math and post again in a sec...yeah with implied odds, you could get 5:1 or 6:1 vs one other person if the flush hits...

[Guest]

ok so if youre about 30% to hit the flush on the river [lets say one or two of your suit is already dealt away], KKsuited mentioned you roughly will win 1 out of 3 times. lets add implied odds of about 5:1 when you hit the flush 1 out of 3 times. so the 2 times you lose, you lose [minus the blind] 20 each time of YOUR chips, so 20 x 2 = 40. the 1 time you win, you win 35 or 45, depending on if you can get 1 or 2 big bets from your opponent on the river.so it seems like you are just breaking even or losing a bit of money... keep in mind this is just 3 times against one opponent. i think my math is right... let me know...

[KKsuited 0]

Your math is pretty much correct. So the conclusion (based on how I see it, which I think is correct) is that you really need atleast 2 other people in the pot to make chasing the flush (or an open ended str8 draw - about the same odds) very profitable.The idea of getting extra bets once your flush hits on the river may be wishful thinking. I think many good players could put you on a flush draw and not give you the extra bet at the end. Those kind of plays seperate decent players from really good players.

[naugie 0]

The problem with this computing is that it doesn't take into the account of the other factors. How you play your flush draw.Heads up you might want to raise his flop bet to get the free card on the turn. If you do, and it works, then there's a different computation. Of course, he could reraise, and then you have to call, if you have the nut draw, and other draws will be correct as well, plus the turn's call is correct as well. Also, if you are on the blind, and it was raised preflop, then, if you played, it is more profitable, as long as it was correct to play your hand anyway, but even if you have a dead ace, such as ATs against AK where the king is of your suit, you would have odds to play (on the blind). Also, the 5 to one implied on the turn will not break even if the board is not paired. It is profitable, and therefore correct. A good player will see the flush and either bet a bluff into it, folding to a reraise, which still gets our fifth bet, or check call if he has a made hand. If he is absolutely positive you had the flush, well, then he is better than you, and it might just break even. This is why raising the flop can be a good play, isn't it? We don't want to just call when we can win right there, or get more money in for when we catch, as well as consealing our hand, right? While this might not be VERY profitable, it is profitable, and therefore will eventually add up. The little bets are very important.This will cause swings of course, possibly big ones, so think about your bankroll.

[naugie 0]

preflop= 10+10+2flop = 22+5 to 5=27:1= approximately 5:1 it is profitable for when you hit on the turn. turn= 32+10 to 10=4.2:1 =just about break even, except for when you know you can get the 1 bet on the river, which implies 5.2:1= profitable.This also means that if you do hit your ace, you won't call.

[KKsuited 0]

I guess I'm a little confused here. I agree with different ways to get more money in the pot (ie, raising on the flop for a free card), but that doesn't change the original question.If you play the hand the same way every time (ie, your betting pattern before you hit the flush are the same), you are always getting paid even money on your bets, when you need to be getting paid 2-1.Regardless if you bet, raise, or whatever, it's an even money pot. I think it's as simple as that.Once again, if you assume you can pick up an extra bet once you hit, then that makes it more profitable. But in general, no matter how you slice it, chasing 2-1 hands with one other person in the pot is bad poker.Only in no-limt where inplied odds can be through the roof, could this even be considered. Once again, that implies once you hit, you will get paid off by the other player. Remember this though.....Really good players don't pay you off when you hit your hand. Thus I think that the implied odds way of looking at this question is no good.

[naugie 0]

Okay, playing the hand this way everytime in a heads up pot will break even if the guy doesn't pay you off on the end. Now please consider this while I respectfully get on a soapbox.why would you play a flush draw this way every time? Just calling is not profitable poker in the vast majority of hands. That is the way really good players will not pay you off. You're not checking and calling. You are just straight calling. If you are really good, he will have a harder time figuring what that means, since you wouldn't do that very often, so a really good player would possibly still be betting for value if he reads you wrong. or he was betting a draw and missed and bet with nothing with a chance to win when you fold. This was still if you don't consider your ace an out. If you would call after hitting an ace, that changes what you consider your outs, which makes it more profitable. What about the backdoor straight. With the nutflush draw and the 2 different backdoor straights on the flop, I don't think you should have just called anyway. Raise. All of a sudden, on the turn, you don't even need the implied odds because a call is correct. This is not a simple cut and dried hand. Playing the way the question posed is incorrect, yes, but not because you have one person in the pot. It is because you don't really want to just call all the way with anything, especially heads up. If you raise the flop, he might fold AJ, AQ, AT (which he might have raised with in a late middle position as a change), QQ, JJ, TT, and 88. By the way, if he had these non ace hands, your Ace is now an out, adding 3 to your flush draw, and the call is now profitable. He would have to bet that flop to find out where he was at. Good players don't just call the whole way, this would make them easy to read. Raising the flop makes the turn a profitable call when you don't get the free card, and hides your hand when you hit. That covers play against the good player doesn't it?Also. You're not always playing against good players, are you? The others will pay you off.

[naugie 0]

Okay. If you look at my post just before your last one, I think I laid out the bets the way they were in your example. Now everyone agrees that the call on the turn is profitable. Now, your question asks if you should call on the turn. Obviously in this situation, without implied odds, yes, this is break even, but two to one is not needed on the money you put in, just more than even. For instance, if the raiser had just called, the small blind had called and then YOU raised and the small blind dropped out (which would be wierd of course). All of a sudden the call here would no longer be even money. Had someone raised pre flop and the flop, the call here would not be even money. And if noone had raised pre flop, or on the flop, and noone else was in, the only way the call on the flop would have been correct would be with implied odds if all you wanted was the flush.Suited hands definitely are worth more with lots of people in, while high cards are worth less. The biggest influence on whether to play even in the beginning would be the relationship between you and the other guy, your read on what he has, and how to play against that. Another possibility from calling here would be implied odds from the kind of bets you can get when you raise the flop with a draw later, and no one knows you have a draw until after you hit and take their money. Just a consideration to think about. Break even situations are great advertising situations, just like the way Sklansky says bluffs should break even, but advertise great when you get caught bluffing.