bigguyren68 155 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 my mind is a bit blown with the complexity of this problem. And I think it is essentially mathematical problem that can be easily solved..My initial feeling is that you are off your rocker and it makes no sense..However after reading your points it has some validity. There are a lot of times we make lineup decisions based on various non mathematical situations. For example if I am playing against you we both have Washington goalies I will use the same ones as you to not have the game come down to goaltending..However if I feel that you have a better chance to beat me, then I will put another set of goalies in to increase the luck factor , meaning my chances to win. In logic, the goalie situation should be based on which goalies are ranked to have a lower output..Regardless of who is the other teams goalies. Its sort of like a theory in Poker that was dubbed the "Kill Phil theory"..Essentially if you overplay your hands pre flop against better opponents, it makes it harder for your opponents to use skill against you. While its not the best mathematical play, its the best strategy against tougher and better opponents. Mathematical edges are sometimes mixed up with psycological paradoxes. We may believe that its great to have players that play in the West Coast because it gives you a better chance to come back and win more games late. Mathematically it makes no sense whats so ever. However when I m playing DraftKings for a $1 I may do this to increase my fun factor. Best way to prove/disprove a theory is usually to give an extreme example. Assuming your opponent had 1 forward and 5 empty forward spots, 4 empty defense spots, and empty goalies. For example John Gaudreau and nothing else. And your choices of forward players are Crosby Stamkos Ovechkin Benn Seguin Mcdavid and Monahan. Even if you though Monahan was the worst of the 7 forwards, having him and any 5 others reduces chance of losing game to Gaudreau only from 0.1% to 0.0001%. Even though your average score from them reduces from 4.332 to 4.127, you increase chance of a win. Now that being said, I agree, play your lineup based on regular AHL games. Champions/Survivor games are just a fun bonus. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted October 20, 2017 Author Share Posted October 20, 2017 Best way to prove/disprove a theory is usually to give an extreme example. Assuming your opponent had 1 forward and 5 empty forward spots, 4 empty defense spots, and empty goalies. For example John Gaudreau and nothing else. And your choices of forward players are Crosby Stamkos Ovechkin Benn Seguin Mcdavid and Monahan. Even if you though Monahan was the worst of the 7 forwards, having him and any 5 others reduces chance of losing game to Gaudreau only from 0.1% to 0.0001%. Even though your average score from them reduces from 4.332 to 4.127, you increase chance of a win. Now that being said, I agree, play your lineup based on regular AHL games. Champions/Survivor games are just a fun bonus. Did you include the Lucky Bob Factor in your calculations? Link to post Share on other sites
bigguyren68 155 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Did you include the Lucky Bob Factor in your calculations? Hmmmmm?I have only been helping Roy for 3 years 2015 2nd best +/- Big M swept by Gothic in Finals 2016 Best +/- Big M swept by Steelheads in Finals 2017 Best +/- Big M lost 4-1 to PkDealers in Semi-Finals. I am not feeling this LuckyBob I keep hearing about. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Hmmmmm?I have only been helping Roy for 3 years 2015 2nd best +/- Big M swept by Gothic in Finals 2016 Best +/- Big M swept by Steelheads in Finals 2017 Best +/- Big M lost 4-1 to PkDealers in Semi-Finals. I am not feeling this LuckyBob I keep hearing about. ok, ok. Bob the Choker Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted October 21, 2017 Author Share Posted October 21, 2017 +/- lol It's all about the corsi Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Not quite correct. If you picked up a player mid season who now is at 38 NHL games played he can still be Aho'd if he STARTED the season at 25 or less NHL games experience. I'd like more clarification on the Aho rule, please. The rule states "called up" implying the player must be called up from the farm to the active roster with less than 25 NHL games played and the call up must happen between Nov 1 and spring callups, but we're also making it applicable to waiver pickups who have played less than 25 NHL games at the time of pickup, correct? 1 Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted October 21, 2017 Author Share Posted October 21, 2017 Big Ms out. Canadian Gothic vs PK Dealers lol I guess the draft was unnecessary. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Canadian Gothic vs PK Dealers lol I guess the draft was unnecessary. lol Link to post Share on other sites
bigguyren68 155 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Canadian Gothic vs PK Dealers. Survived again. 10 straight. Short night Friday coming up on the 27th. Post your lineup Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Champions League Standings: http://alternativehockeyleague.com/standings/champion_league.php After 4 games 8 of the 16 teams sit at 2-2. No team is loss free, but Puck Warfare and Swackers haven't suffered a loss in regulation and both lead their respective divisions. We also don't have a winless team in either division. Top Scoring Teams: Magically Delicious 24.0 Swackers 22.5 Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Pick Ups For Sunday Oct 22nd If you have picked up a player please make your reserve or drop moves to make room today. Players Picked Up Scarborough Shooters David Desharnais F NYR PK Dealers Tim Schaller F BOS Shoot Loose Jori Lehtera F PHI Whalers Justin Bailey F BUF Whalers Matt Calvert F CBJ The Big M's Stephen Johns D DAL Schaller was claimed by 2 teams. A claim was put in on Samuel Blais of St Louis but he's already on PK Dealers farm. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Pick Ups For Sunday Oct 22nd If you have picked up a player please make your reserve or drop moves to make room today. Players Picked Up Scarborough Shooters David Desharnais F NYR PK Dealers Tim Schaller F BOS Shoot Loose Jori Lehtera F PHI Whalers Justin Bailey F BUF Whalers Matt Calvert F CBJ The Big M's Stephen Johns D DAL Schaller was claimed by 2 teams. A claim was put in on Samuel Blais of St Louis but he's already on PK Dealers farm. can we shame the team who puts a claim on an existing player? Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 I'm pretty sure whoever that is has to take a shot of tequila as per the international hockey pool handbook on picking an already taken player. Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 can we shame the team who puts a claim on an existing player? to be fair Blais is called both Sammy and Samuel so there can be confusion Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 I'm pretty sure whoever that is has to take a shot of tequila as per the international hockey pool handbook on picking an already taken player. Want to put this into the rules. Let’s vote on it Link to post Share on other sites
bigguyren68 155 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Canadian Gothic vs PK Dealers Streak is now at 11 straight games, I foresee a 0-0 tie(both with weak line-ups) in our head to head match tomorrow. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted October 25, 2017 Author Share Posted October 25, 2017 Streak is now at 11 straight games, I foresee a 0-0 tie(both with weak line-ups) in our head to head match tomorrow. Lol probably Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Cheap Thieves played Jussi Jokinen who was ultimately scratched instead of Golden Knights superstar Tomas Nosek and as a result are eliminated from Survivor Tuesday this week. Reminder, next week's Survivor night will be a MONDAY. Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Champions League Standings through 5 games: http://alternativehockeyleague.com/standings/champion_league.php 1 Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted October 26, 2017 Author Share Posted October 26, 2017 Considering point production and salary only, what player from each team would you like to have? No farm players. And not necessarily just for this season. Canadian Gothic - Cheap Thieves - Damon Severson NJD Mustangs - Wayne Simmonds PHI Steelheads - Jack Eichel BUF Underdogs - Dylan Larkin DET Magically Delicious - Mats Zucarello NYR Puck Warfare - David Pastrnak BOS Red Ravens - Patrick Laine WPG Shoot Loose - Jaccob Slavin CAR Winning Combination - Brady Skjei NYR Big Ms - Nikita Kucherov TBL Greaseballs - Auston Matthews TOR Ingmen - Shortstackers - Viktor Arvidsson FUK Whalers - Tyler Johnson TBL Broadway - Tyler Seguin DAL PK Dealers - Adam Henrique NJD Screamin' Eagles - Alexander Wennberg CBJ Shooters - Connor McDavid EDM Swackers - Nikolaj Ehlers WPG Link to post Share on other sites
bigguyren68 155 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Screamin' Eagles - Alexander Wennberg CBJ Even at an extra $1.25 I would take Panarin. Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Pretty awesome that Damon Severson is mentioned in the same group as Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Most talented twosome playing on the same line has to be Kucherov and Stamkos Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Ingmen - Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Bottom teams beat top teams in both divisions to tighten the race in both divisions. No team better than 4-2, no team worse than 2-4 through 6 Champions League games: http://alternativehockeyleague.com/standings/champion_league.php Link to post Share on other sites
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