spacemonkey 0 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 "The first key pot I played was in Pot Limit Omaha. I was dealt Ah Ad 5h 5d and raised from early position to $6000. David Benyamine, who just re-raised on the previous hand declared that he was "steaming" and re-raised me to $21,000. That's music to my ears with such a monster hand.I went ahead and re-raised the pot, and we each threw in $100,000 a piece. "I've got two pair and double suited aces," I said to David."No, you really have that," he asked? Then promptly turned over virtually the same hand with As Ac 7s 7c. Obviously I was hoping for a better situation that that, but I got my money in as the favorite.Don't believe me? Try running the two hands heads up. Sure the 77 will beat the 55 if they BOTH flop a set, but I have the added win of the 2-3-4 straight. That is MUCH more likely to happen than set over set."I used a couple calculators and they all show Daniel as a slight dog 49.8 to 50.2http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1615273pokenum -mc 500000 -o ah ad 5h 5d - as ac 7s 7c Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boardscards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EVAd 5d Ah 5h 154535 30.91 156182 31.24 189283 37.86 0.498As 7s Ac 7c 156182 31.24 154535 30.91 189283 37.86 0.502Obviously it's close but looks like the set over set plays more than the straight at least after factoring in possible flushes and full houses. Link to post Share on other sites
sholden 0 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 He's the obvious dog, as common sense and an odds calculator will both tell you.He's also really stupid for voluntarily betting $100,000 with a 7% chance to win. Or of course he spelt $100,000 as $200,000... Link to post Share on other sites
wheatrich 0 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 I noticed this immediately myself and went straight for the calculator to make sure. Well you can't get the odds right all the time. Either way he made the right play just a tough break. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 He's the obvious dog, as common sense and an odds calculator will both tell you.He's also really stupid for voluntarily betting $100,000 with a 7% chance to win. Or of course he spelt $100,000 as $200,000...yeah he should've put benyamine on two better suited aces. what an idiot.sigh sw Link to post Share on other sites
speedz99 145 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 He's the obvious dog, as common sense and an odds calculator will both tell you.He's also really stupid for voluntarily betting $100,000 with a 7% chance to win. Or of course he spelt $100,000 as $200,000...No, actually we realized that it's a $100k cap...meaning both of them had put in $100k, for a total pot of approximately $200k (plus blinds). So each run of the hand was for half of the pot, or $100k. Link to post Share on other sites
sholden 0 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 yeah he should've put benyamine on two better suited aces. what an idiot.sigh swAfter the flop retard. Pre flop it all goes in obvously...The point is it's impossible for him to have been stuck $200k from that hand with a $100k cap.Either he put an extra $100k in with a 7% chance of winning because he is an idiot. Or the blog is simply wrong in the "how much I lost" bit.No, actually we realized that it's a $100k cap...meaning both of them had put in $100k, for a total pot of approximately $200k (plus blinds). So each run of the hand was for half of the pot, or $100k.Let me quote the blog entry for the eternally stupid:"""Unfortunately, the flop came K-8-7. We ran it twice from there as I had two back door flush draws, but I missed both and was stuck $200,000 right off the bat."""Please explain how losing the total pot of $200k (run twice at $100k a run) gets you stuck $200k. Did the other guy not put any money in the pot and was freerolling on Daniel's $200k? Or maybe should that bit of the blog have read stuck $100,000.Which was the point you managed to completely miss. Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 After the flop retard. Pre flop it all goes in obvously...The point is it's impossible for him to have been stuck $200k from that hand with a $100k cap.Either he put an extra $100k in with a 7% chance of winning because he is an idiot. Or the blog is simply wrong in the "how much I lost" bit.Let me quote the blog entry for the eternally stupid:"""Unfortunately, the flop came K-8-7. We ran it twice from there as I had two back door flush draws, but I missed both and was stuck $200,000 right off the bat."""Please explain how losing the total pot of $200k (run twice at $100k a run) gets you stuck $200k. Did the other guy not put any money in the pot and was freerolling on Daniel's $200k? Or maybe should that bit of the blog have read stuck $100,000. Which was the point you managed to completely miss. Again, I lost $100,000 in THAT hand but I was stuck $200,000 right off the bat. That shoudn't be too hard to understand. I lost $100,000 before that hand started in various pots. Link to post Share on other sites
playingtowin 0 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 What? DN's hand was the favorite by about 5% in EV...overall...he was not the dog. Link to post Share on other sites
Naismith 0 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 Dan's the favorite if it's hi-lo, which I think it was. He's a little over 55-45. If not, he's a tiny dog. Link to post Share on other sites
playingtowin 0 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 What? DN's hand was the favorite by about 5% in EV...overall...he was not the dog.Ok, I'm sorry DN would be the fav if it was hilo...and in this case it was omaha hi.. DN was .02% dog Link to post Share on other sites
sholden 0 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 Again, I lost $100,000 in THAT hand but I was stuck $200,000 right off the bat. That shoudn't be too hard to understand. I lost $100,000 before that hand started in various pots.Wowsers, I just don't have enough money to lose $100k before the first "key" hand I guess In fact losing a third of my buy in at the 5c tables would be difficult to do quickly without a "key" hand - sure a thousand cuts and all but I interpreted "quicker than expected" to mean quicker than you were actually saying I guess. Link to post Share on other sites
blueodum 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Dan's the favorite if it's hi-lo, which I think it was. Umm ... no."The first key pot I played was in Pot Limit Omaha..." Link to post Share on other sites
myenemy 0 Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 minutiae Link to post Share on other sites
76clubs 0 Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 He's also really stupid for voluntarily betting $100,000 with a 7% chance to win.THANK YOU!FINALLY SOMEONE ELSE REALIZES THAT IT IS -EV TO PLAY POCKET ACES!!!WOW YOU ARE SOOOOO SMART!!!DO YOU HAVE SOME KIND OF DEGREE!?(major sw) Link to post Share on other sites
Dendroaspis Polylepis 0 Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 He's the obvious dog, as common sense and an odds calculator will both tell you.He's also really stupid for voluntarily betting $100,000 with a 7% chance to win. Or of course he spelt $100,000 as $200,000...I prefer to use an abacus for such calculations at the poker table Link to post Share on other sites
xtxoxpxd 0 Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 I prefer to use an abacus for such calculations at the poker table i still count on my fingers. toes also if necessary. since they ran it twice, it was. Link to post Share on other sites
Oblivious 0 Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Don't believe me? Try running the two hands heads up. Sure the 77 will beat the 55 if they BOTH flop a set, but I have the added win of the 2-3-4 straight. That is MUCH more likely to happen than set over set.77 will beat 55 if they both make a set OR if only 77 makes a set. Hitting a 7 on the board happens far more often than 234 hitting the board.I really want to know why DN felt motivated to stipulate "BOTH" in that sentence. Maybe it was just a brainfart? Link to post Share on other sites
xtxoxpxd 0 Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 77 will beat 55 if they both make a set OR if only 77 makes a set. Hitting a 7 on the board happens far more often than 234 hitting the board.I really want to know why DN felt motivated to stipulate "BOTH" in that sentence. Maybe it was just a brainfart? no because the odds of flopping a 7 and winning are the same as daniel flopping a 5 and winning, thus they cancel out. same as the flush potential for both. Link to post Share on other sites
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