129 replies to this topic

[Acid_Knight]

pkr_invitational, on Wednesday, November 22nd, 2006, 8:27 AM, said:

Hello all, What a situation to be put in. I've read most of your responses. Here is my two sense. First off every hand is a story being told. The AK raise preflop signifys strength or trying to steal the blinds. The BB calling says, he is not strong but has a hand he wants to see the flop with. Most likely a drawing hand or small pair. When the flop comes A98, the BB has to assume we hit the flop based on our preflop raise. If he is drawing from early position he isn't going to bet into a potential paired Ace. The BB checks and expects to call for another card on a draw or fold if the bet is the pot size. When AK checked the BB was probably shocked, wasn't expecting a free card. I think the check by AK also shows real strength in the hand. remember the cardinal rule,"strong means weak and weak means strong" at the tables. The BB has to be thinking his opponent has a A with a strong kicker. He figures if he hits his draw he has a strong hold on this with an opponent who may not be able to let go of his hand. I would assume the BB is playing 10 J. He'd have an open ended nut str8 draw. The 7 hits on the turn and he slow plays the str8. The AK throws out a value, feeler bet. BB calls hoping the AK gets stronger. The river is a bust and knows he has the nuts. He bets small and it is too suspicious so he goes big and bets hard trying to represent a busted str8 draw bluffing the pot. Quoting bdc30, "An overbet push is the new value bet these days". I totally agree. I've done it in the past and its paid off well more often than not. The only other hand I can think the BB could have played is 77. He hits trips and knows if he just bets the river he will get raised and put on the spot. He goes all in and the pressure of a reraise is off him. He believes he has his money in with the best hand. The only hand that can call him is a str8. In the end I believe he is playing the 10 J and hits his str8. It's a hand that is playable preflop from the BB when calling a raise. It's a hand that you can get away from if the flop doesn't touch you but is also a hand that can hit big if the right drawing circumstance happens. Great posting Daniel. I really liked thinking about this one. I would fold. Too many tell signs of a trap.Jason.

Try assigning a range of hands to your opponent and not only a single hand. If we could put our opponents on a single hand, then this game would be very easy.Also, you'd be better off not writing a novel next time. People won't read it, or they'll mock you incessantly for choosing to post in that format.

[mtdesmoines]

Acid_Knight, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 1:18 PM, said:

Just becuase your play was designed to induce a bluff, doesn't mean that he IS bluffing and that doesn't mean that we have to call off our whole stack. ...You're either winning or you're not and if you're wrong and make the call, it is a MUCH BIGGER mistake than being wrong and folding, IMO. I can be wrong, make a bad fold and still be in fine shape in the tourney. The same cannot be said about making the wrong call.

Actually, I agree with this chickenshit reasoning. Here are our hopes if we call: AQ, or another poorly played AK and chop chop. A very small range of hands.Here are our hopes if we fold: straight, two pair, set ... any of about 30 hands. We fold here and play our AK better next time and hope that the moron plays as badly next time (if he's bluffing).

[shpaget]

mtdesmoines, on Wednesday, November 22nd, 2006, 3:18 PM, said:

Actually, I agree with this chickenshit reasoning. Here are our hopes if we call: AQ, or another poorly played AK and chop chop. A very small range of hands.Here are our hopes if we fold: straight, two pair, set ... any of about 30 hands. We fold here and play our AK better next time and hope that the moron plays as badly next time (if he's bluffing).

Frankly, if we think he has AQ or AK, we are idiots.I also think if we think he has two pair we are idiots.He is either very strong or bluffing...ie. a set or a straight....and in reality, he doesn't have T6 or 33...and probably not AA and 56 would be a stretch.And his range of bluffing hands is actually greater than his range of strong hands.Also - I don't know where you get 30 hands.There are 18 TOTAL hands that beat us...and if you think he has hands like 73, 93, and T6...well...yeeesh. IMO there are 12 hands that are plausible, and 4 of those that are probable.However, there are at probably 30 hands he could bluff with here...maybe even more as he has every reason to believe we're weaker than an Ethiopian on a hunger strike.I've said it before and I'll say it again...what he has isn't the key here...what's important is what he thinks we have.If he thinks we're weak thena. he has plenty of reason to bluffb. he has plenty of reason to bet small on the river for valuec. he has zero reason to push the river, even with the nuts, because if we're weak we won't callIf he thinks we're strong thena. he won't push if he's weakb. he won't push if he's mid-rangec. he may not even push with a setd. he may check/fold if he's weak and check/call-raise if he's also stronge. he could push with the nuts, 2nd nuts, 3rd nuts figuring will have to call with our strong handHe doesn't have any reason to think we're strong....he has plenty of reason to think we're weak.

[MR_BIZKITZ]

With no read on the player I fold. By the time you get to the river tptk is not as strong as it was on the flop. Playing a vulnerable hand fancy is usually not a good idea and just makes decisions harder on later streets. I've been in this situation many times and they don't seem to have bottom pair or a busted straight draw as much as I would like to believe. You are only in for 1800 and can wait for a better spot. I don't mind getting outdrawn if I get most of the money in when I'm ahead but if you call 5400 here and are wrong then it is donkish.I know when he leads out with the overbet it looks like a bluff but still with no reads on the player I fold. I can imagine the hand on tv going something like this..player A bets 5400 on the riverphil hellmuth: why would you bet so much?phil hellmuth: i callplayer A shows 8 7 phil hellmuth: Q$# R#%Q #$#$# %$$%W ..... You get all that money in with 78? They try to give it away! I cant believe this is the WSOP. I threw away all those hands because I knew they would self destruct. %@$%$@ % you just hope that one time they dont hit the #$@#$'n 7. I just cant play any better

[DanielNegreanu]

About to board a plane. Will get the answer up soon.

[showstopper24]

i was surprised tha most people voted to fold, thats what i said

[_Great_Dane_]

DanielNegreanu, on Saturday, November 25th, 2006, 5:54 PM, said:

About to board a plane. Will get the answer up soon.

I mistakenly posted Daniel's answer to #21. Sorry.Here's the correct link:http://www.fullconta...u...c=81276&hl=

Edited by _Great_Dane_, 25 November 2006 - 10:48 PM.

[grocery_mony]

_Great_Dane_, on Sunday, November 26th, 2006, 1:11 AM, said:

Here's Daniel's answer to the question:http://detnews.com/a.../611220407/1005

love your new avatar dane

[Rocketwadster]

shpaget, on Wednesday, November 22nd, 2006, 2:49 PM, said:

He doesn't have any reason to think we're strong....he has plenty of reason to think we're weak.

Depending on the strength of his hand, some of the comments you provided may be completely backwards. I agree completely that what he thinks we have is a major factor, however, ...

[rrmicho]

Ill prob. FOLD cause im not that potcommited anyways!