13 replies to this topic

[Ninja Ace]

6-max150BB effective stacks18/16 opens UTG for 4bbfoldsHero elects to call on the button with KcJcHU to flopAs Qc 2dvillain bets 6bb into a pot of 9bbok to float here? better options?

[slink]

I fold, but I suck also...

[mtdesmoines]

Ninja Ace, on Wednesday, November 24th, 2010, 10:50 PM, said:

6-max150BB effective stacks18/16 opens UTG for 4bbfoldsHero elects to call on the button with KcJcHU to flopAs Qc 2dvillain bets 6bb into a pot of 9bbok to float here? better options?

we had our fun pf. it is not profitable to play this flop

[Stupidhead]

Floating/raising is alright with a gutter+back door clubs. I'd just want to be sure it's against someone that can fold something like ATs to 2-3 barrels.

[rrumsey]

not a terrible float but i would prefer to have a wetter board so things can come on the turn that miss our hand but we could rep. but seeing how we could get a FD its not bad, even better if is doesnt barrel too often.

[rrumsey]

you know i forgot to add this but on an A high board even if he has an A he is probably going to pot control it on the turn a lot so we may be getting to a free river a lot of the time.

[SuperJon]

rrumsey, on Thursday, November 25th, 2010, 5:59 PM, said:

you know i forgot to add this but on an A high board even if he has an A he is probably going to pot control it on the turn a lot so we may be getting to a free river a lot of the time.

doesn't that defeat the purpose of floating tho?

[rrumsey]

SuperJon, on Thursday, November 25th, 2010, 4:02 PM, said:

doesn't that defeat the purpose of floating tho?

it means we dont have to bluff the turn because he may be checking to us a ton on the turn.

[SuperJon]

rrumsey, on Thursday, November 25th, 2010, 8:11 PM, said:

it means we dont have to bluff the turn because he may be checking to us a ton on the turn.

if we're floating here it's because we have a plan to try and take the hand away on the turn. so if he checks the turn, we do have to bluff, otherwise we're floating for no reason and just giving away money.the only times we should really consider checking the turn is when it's a card that gives us more equity (K, J or club). other than that, if we float this flop we need to bet the turn like always and then reevaluate on teh river if called.edit: with the right reads and against the right opponent, a delayed float can sometimes be okay.

[Ninja Ace]

With a TAG UTG range aren't we pretty much expecting A or better to bet and everything else to c/f most turns? Our call does look pretty strong on a board that really shouldn't allow too many non-paired hands to flat the flopAlso, the number of huge hands he can hold is larger than normal... although bad for floating doesn't it massively increase the equity of the sneaky gutshot? I know it sounds weird as a give/take but I kind of expect most players to be ready to play a huge pot or completely give up without much in between here, and both should be straightforward to respond to

rrumsey, on Thursday, November 25th, 2010, 5:11 PM, said:

it means we dont have to bluff the turn because he may be checking to us a ton on the turn.

I kind of disagree with this a lot... if it was a CO vs Button situation I could see that... but not here. Only hands he should be pot controlling are what? AT? KQ (which is still hard even to check-call a turn bet unimproved)?Also I know it's not super-deep but doesn't being an extra 50bb deeper make this play more correct?

[mtdesmoines]

Ninja Ace, on Friday, November 26th, 2010, 5:33 AM, said:

Also I know it's not super-deep but doesn't being an extra 50bb deeper make this play more correct?

I think it's difficult to be profitable floating vs a UTG open when an ace flops. I think what you're asking is, "do I have implied odds to go for a gutterball or bdfd here?"And I think the answer is no.

[Ninja Ace]

mtdesmoines, on Friday, November 26th, 2010, 9:45 PM, said:

I think it's difficult to be profitable floating vs a UTG open when an ace flops. I think what you're asking is, "do I have implied odds to go for a gutterball or bdfd here?"And I think the answer is no.

Almost my question... more like... can we take this hand away when checked to on the turn often enough to properly chase the gutterball?Cuz I agree that chasing the gutter by itself, giving up every time you miss, definitely not profitable...Floating here without any equity is probably equally likely to not be profitable...But combination intention? I dunno... don't even know how to create a model to approach getting the answerObv most of these scenarios are going to be villain dependent so I doubt there's a clear cut answer...

[SuperJon]

Ninja Ace, on Saturday, November 27th, 2010, 9:55 PM, said:

Almost my question... more like... can we take this hand away when checked to on the turn often enough to properly chase the gutterball?Cuz I agree that chasing the gutter by itself, giving up every time you miss, definitely not profitable...Floating here without any equity is probably equally likely to not be profitable...But combination intention? I dunno... don't even know how to create a model to approach getting the answerObv most of these scenarios are going to be villain dependent so I doubt there's a clear cut answer...

I think a standard UTG range is something like 11%, which in Stove looks like 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KQo. Although it's not an entirely accurate representation of his range, since he might be raising all pairs, and some other suited connectors.But just looking at the range that Stove gives us, if he's cbetting 100%, then that's a total of 148 combos. (48 pairs and 100 non pair hands). Mind you this doesn't take into account our blockers, but I don't know if that would really skew the math that much. It probably does, but I'm still learning this stuff so whatever.Ok, so back to where we were...the only hands in that range that are betting this flop that will either be check/calling turn and river or trying to get stacks in are AA,QQ,A9s+,ATo+. That's 80 hand combinations, or about 54% of his presumed range. So like you said it really is villain dependent, because you would need him (assuming you miss and the turn and river are complete blanks) to fold to most likely a turn and river bet with a little more than half of his range. I don't think floating is super bad here, but personally, I would just fold on this board.*just a quick note, i do apologize if any of my mathz are wrong.

[Ninja Ace]

SuperJon, on Saturday, November 27th, 2010, 7:41 PM, said:

Ok, so back to where we were...the only hands in that range that are betting this flop that will either be check/calling turn and river or trying to get stacks in are AA,QQ,A9s+,ATo+. That's 80 hand combinations, or about 54% of his presumed range.

Ahhh ok... so say this float should work about halfish of the time... about the breakeven point considering a check/call is bad for us as we throw away a pretty sizeable turn bet. I'd say us hitting our gutter and him folding is about a wash with the times he picks up a set with his 77 or whatever... So assuming we never improve when he has a hand we're probably losing 1 or 2 BB in the longrun...With this I kind of disbelieve we can't pick up that small margin on our 8% to hit the turn draw to the nuts when he should have a hand to pay us at minimum one late street bet half the time.And personally I'm not really counting a ton on the bdf or having to fire a river barrel.