Monster Hand, Deep-stacked Against A Tag

[sierradave 0]

1/2nl at Caesar's in Atlantic City. Villain is a solid TAG. We've played together for about 4 hours and he's done a good job of avoiding large pots unless he has a huge hand. Doesn't appear to bluff very often, capable of making a decent fold. Hero has a solid/TAG image. Due to a recent run of cold cards, my raises and bets are actually getting a little too much respect for my taste.The table includes a couple of live ones who will pay through the nose with unprofitable draws and middle pairs. The strong players have mostly been avoiding each other, taking turns against the tourists.Relevant stacks: villain (~800), Hero (~700), BB/total live one (~120)Hero limps with Qh 8h behind two other limpers. Two more limps, then Villain raises to $12 from the button. (Physical tell: villain picks up 2 white chips, almost reflexively tosses them in, then pauses and throws in the raise instead. This isn't over-the-top and doesn't seem intentional. Read is that it denotes a weaker-than-average raising hand.) BB and one other limper calls, Hero calls, other two limpers call.Flop (6 players, $72): Qc8s8c. Everyone checks around to the button, who bets $35. BB calls, Hero calls. Everyone else folds. [Thought process: I flopped the lock, a bet or check-raise is going to look way too strong, and the BB will likely call off his stack by the river if I don't push right now.]Turn (3 players, $177): 2h. BB checks, Villain looks determined, hero checks, Villain bets $75. BB folds. Hero pauses, considers, tries to look a bit like he's calculating pot odds/implied odds, calls. [Thought process: I'd been worrying about giving a free card that keeps the pot small, but villain looked ready to bet so I let him. Bet size is surprising given the paired board. Sucks that the BB let it go. If I check-raise here, he's going to have an easy fold.]River (2 players, $327): Ks. Hero was planning to bet out, but villain looks real eager to bet. Hero checks. Villain bets $100. Hero? [Thought process: I am thoroughly confused. Trip 8s is hugely likely from me here, and this guy doesn't play big pots without a mega-hand. Time to think carefully, how strong is my hand against his range.]If our stacks were a bit shorter ($200 or so left behind), I see this as an obvious shove. But I still have about $600 left, he has me covered, and he's shown a ton of strength on every street despite the obvious possiblity that I might have trips. The pot is still relatively small compared to our stacks. I feel pretty much certain that he wouldn't play AA, AQ, or AK this strong, particularly on the river. I see three possible options:1. Raise all-in.2. Min-raise $100 or make it $150ish more.3. Fear catastrophe and just call.What range of hands do we put a TAG opponent on here? Which option would you choose? In how many different spots did I play this one wrong?

[Money022 0]

I prefer leading out on the turn or at least reraising him. KK/QQ are possible. You haven't defined your hand at all so there's not much info to go off of. Because of that I probably just call. I'm kinda weak/tight though.

[Skittles 0]

What range of hands do we put a TAG opponent on here? I'd personally feel AcKc and QQ are most likely (this is a pretty good flop to lead with top boat), followed by AA, KK, and KcJcWhich option would you choose? I'd choose option 2, and get sick if he shoves (probably folding to a shove)In how many different spots did I play this one wrong?I'm not sure any are "wrong." Limping preflop is okay in these games I think after so many limpers. Flop call makes it possibly look like a flush draw, though I might lead out with my hand and hope to win a nice pot from one of the limpers with an 8 or a flush draw. Turn looks like you're still chasing or maybe have at least an 8 (are you right before the button to act?). So I'd say 0 streets misplayed.

[sabes99 0]

i say raise to $350 on the river, this commits you if he has K-K(although you probably wouldn't be folding either way) but will get you max value from worse handsif your pf read is of weakness, then i expect that he was drawing on the flop, maybe a big draw like J-9 or J-10 of clubs and was eager to bet the river because he felt that was the only way to win the pot, or possibly K-10 of clubs or something like that and was eager to bet his king on the end...anyway, i like the way you played this hand, you didn't scare him off and his hand was so much of a question mark that it was probably better for you to keep him in the hand and let him draw thin

[donk4life 34]

Perhaps i'm analyzing this wrong..But don't you have the third nuts?Pockets queens and kings are the only hands that beat you.?

[Zach6668 513]

Perhaps i'm analyzing this wrong..But don't you have the third nuts?Pockets queens and kings are the only hands that beat you.?

and K8.

[donk4life 34]

and K8.

ahhh good call, well if the guys like to raise with king 8 then so be it, but raise that mofo!

[babylondonks 5]

How sure are you of that PF weakness read? But I think we have to stack off with this hand in this case. You have shown absolutely no strength so far, check/calling on the flop/turn and checking on the river. I think we have to give him a larger range than just KK/QQ, I suppose K8 is possible but it could be he has a semi-strong hand like KQ or something and made his higher two-pair on the river. Plus his 1/3 pot bet could well be just betting for value, seeing that J10 just got there. I'd probably shove this, but it depends on just how strong your read is.

[Mattnxtc 0]

I think based off of the hand played..his $100 dollar river bet is very weak in relation to the hand. I think a raise to 250-300 may get a call though its going to be hard to get paid off.

[mtdesmoines 3]

What range of hands do we put a TAG opponent on here? Which option would you choose? In how many different spots did I play this one wrong?

Looks like 22 or KQ. Raise to $325 and look like you have all the confidence in the world in your trips. You're not folding this to a push, BTW.

[NoBBiR 0]

You're going broke this hand if he has you beat with QQ or KK. AA seems reasonable, regardless of his preflop physical tell. Raise it up, and let him know you mean business.

[34off 0]

whats the result? this has got me wanting to know more like Maury's Baby Daddy test

[sierradave 0]

Thanks for all the responses, folks. I ended up deciding on option 1 and announced "I'm just gonna call" while turning over my flopped boat. He replied "is that all you have?" and mucked his ad9d. The guy got up a couple of hands later and half the table spent the next ten minutes telling me I was a complete idiot for not shoving.The range I had him on included suited connector 8s (7d8d, 8d9d), ad9d, QQ, KK, 22, or an oddball but deadly k8.I wasn't all that sure of the preflop weakness read. It's a read that I try to make at the beginning of a hand just to set my mind around how hard I'm hoping to hit the flop (if someone makes what seems to be a "real" raise, I'm much more willing to muck one-pair hands, etc). Postflop, all signs were that the guy thought he was getting paid, and that read was much clearer, so I mostly relied on that information.In retrospect, I think the mistake I made was checking on the river. I feel fine about not leading out or check-raising the turn in this case, because it seemed so likely that he'd bet and the lead out or check-raise could shut down the action on a huge hand.On the river, I noticed he was likely to fire again, but I think I should have bet out anyway. The club draw had missed and the pot is large. If I had bet out at him for $75 to $100, he would have to pay me off with AK, AA, AQ, and KQ - hands that he might otherwise be checking behind - to make sure I wasn't betting a busted draw. With the actuall hand, he likely would have raised me between $100 more and all-in, and against that amount of strength, I probably would have just called.This month I've been losing a lot of money with small full houses against bigger ones. Consciously I know that's just running bad, that the fourth nuts usually isn't going up against the third, but I've been worried that it's starting to make me tighten up and play more scared anyway. Thanks for all the feedback.

[the_moil 0]

If you had thought about your table image and the Line you were feeding him, he was merely donking off his chips when he put you on a draw.At best, I would put him on KQ.