Briguy, on Wednesday, April 26th, 2006, 7:44 AM, said:
If you are going to represent a hand, you have to lead the turn (bet/fold probably). Your check screams of missed overs, and I don't think you have the odds to call the turn. His 3-betting of the first two streets after you raised from EP means you should discount your overcard outs. He's got AA-JJ a large proportion of the time, and your call is only good (odds-wise) against QQ.
The OP declined to include pot sizes, but the action to us on the turn gives us something like 7-1 on a call, right? We have 4 totally pure gutshot outs, unless he has QQ, in which case we have 2.If he has JJ we have 4 outs.If he has AA, we have 4 outs.If he has KK we have 7 outs.If he has QQ we have 8 outs. There's only 1 way he can have JJ, and there are only a total of 6 ways he can have AA or KK. That leaves QQ, which he can have the full 6 perms. So, a little math, here. 1/13 (4) + 3/13(4) + 3/13(7) + 6/13(8) = about 6.5 outsWe're off by a wee fraction on the total number of outs, but we need about 7.4-1 to make the call profitably (I think; I'm real drunk)We're going to call if an A/K comes off, and raise if a Q comes off. We'll bet an A or K if it's checked to us on the river. When we make our hand, we're going to win a bet almost all the time, and 2 bets some of the time. It's pretty close, but I call the turn here, for 2 reasons:1) Our implied odds on the river positive. We'll lose money if we make a hand and still lose. But we'll win a few bets when we make a straight or a single bet if he has QQ or KK and we hit a good overcard out.2) There's always a chance, slight as it may be, that he's completely full of crap. Even if we decide there's like a 7% chacne he's got a hand like TT or AK/AQ, we can call profitably, since we'll have slightly more outs, and could chop.Did I mess anything up here? Remember, I'm drunk/a drunkWang