*EDIT: I'm a bit retarded, feel free to rid this post for giggles, but I am so wrong it's not funny*Daniel, I have to commend you on this post, if you ever read this *Unlikely* because this post was the reason I registered.There is so many things wrong here, I don't know where to start. *Ooooh I can see the flame war already*Daniel, as a professional poker player, I am sure you are aware of this, in fact this is an advanced strategy rarely if EVER discussed in poker books, is it because the Poker pro's don't want you to know it? Maybe, I doubt that somehow. I just think it's one of the cardinal things in poker you just don't talk about.Lets look at a nice 9 person table situation *which lets face it, if you play MTT's is where you are going to spend most of your time*. Lets say early position doubles, plays really tight, and everyone folds except for you, in the bb, you call with your 6 7hThe flop comes down with the 'Monster Draw' 3h 8h 9sYou have 15 outs. wow, percentage wise, you have the best hand.But do you really believe no one else held a single heart?how about a 10?how about a 5?in 9 handed, assuming you get headsup flop action. 17 cards are out that you don't know what are. 22 cards are already out, 5 of which you know. just under HALF THE DECK is already in play, including folded cards and the first burn. Now let me ask you thisDo you really have 15 outs? On a good day you would have 13-15, an average day 11, and a bad day, 8 or less.Should you put all your money into the pot when you are behind? ----Next problem I have with this post. So many problems with this one.
Your odds to win the hand with only one card to come decrease dramatically. A hand with 15 outs after the flop is a 56 percent favorite, but if you don't improve on the turn, that number drops all the way down to 34 percent.
See this is why I hate, loathe, disgust poker calculators. They are completely unrealistic, firstly: I have a problem with 56 changing to 34. I'm not saying which one is wrong here, because I frankly don't care, but your percentage chance should be more or less halved with only one card to come *so 56 goes to 28ish or 34 should be 68 to improve on the turn* But listen guys, rather than use a 'odds calculator' why don't you just use some simple maths in your head.After the flop 22 cards out of a 52 card deck have been used, that means that if you have exactly 15 outs still in that deck *good luck kiddo* since there are 30 cards left in the deck, what do you imagine your odds are that you will hit your card on the turn? 30 cards, divide by 15, hmmm...I don't know if I can work that out.You have a 50% chance to make your hand on the turn, assuming you have all your outs still in the deck. what's amusing is that, if the turn card doesn't help you, and you still believe you have 15 outs by some godly fate, there is now 28 cards left in the deck, 15 of which can help you. Your chance to hit on the river increased even more.I'm not trying to say my odds and math are correct *Though basic year 9 math we learn in school says it is* But I am trying to say that Daniels here *I'm not blaming daniel, I'm blaming whatever odds calculator he used* are.---In closing. When thinking about decisions like these, PLEASE figure out how many cards are already out, and adjust your outs to go with that. There is a good chance you really only have about 10, sometimes more, sometimes less on a full 9 handed table, 10 outs....hmm, decent favorite indeed.*The poster admits that she is probably going to get flamed massively for this post, and as such has allowed users to send her e-mails. The poster also admits she might get banned for this post, but she hopes it isn't the case*