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Quiz Question #23


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Poll: What Would You Do? (209 member(s) have cast votes)

What is the Best Option?

  1. Fold (12 votes [5.74%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.74%

  2. Call (119 votes [56.94%])

    Percentage of vote: 56.94%

  3. Raise to 3000 (75 votes [35.89%])

    Percentage of vote: 35.89%

  4. Go All In (3 votes [1.44%])

    Percentage of vote: 1.44%

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#21 fiezk

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Posted 02 December 2006 - 02:43 AM

I agree with most that if you're sure Villain won't bet the turn if he has missed the flop+turn, then a defensive call is probably the best play. You're giving away equity in the cases where you're ahead, but you're risking less chips.A more interesting question would be: Villain will fire another bullet on the turn unimproved a percentage of the time. How high would that percentage have to be to make raising the correct move? Consider that villain will likely fold TT, and maybe a weak J to such a raise.

#22 closetwin

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Posted 03 December 2006 - 02:18 AM

*grunch* (that's 2+2 lingo for "I didn't look at replies).I raise. Obviously, if you have nines, J high is one of the better flops to raise. Do not ever let that guy slow play an overpair.The hand goes like this:RAISE: He folds and you win the pot. Fairly frequent. Otherwise, you raise and he has it, and you fold to a reraise.RAISE AND VILLAIN CALLS: You check behind without a set and potentially call the river based soley on reads. No reads, fold river.RAISE AND VILLAIN RAISES: Easy fold.As far as calling goes, **** that. You have to define your hand in the VILLAIN'S mind to win this pot. Defining your hand on the flop is a very important part of NLHE. The best play is a raise. You define your hand as stronger than you are, and if you're behind, the villain will not give you a tough decison, but an easy one.Anyway....that's what I think.

#23 fiezk

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Posted 03 December 2006 - 05:04 AM

View Postclosetwin, on Sunday, December 3rd, 2006, 2:18 AM, said:

*grunch* (that's 2+2 lingo for "I didn't look at replies).I raise. Obviously, if you have nines, J high is one of the better flops to raise. Do not ever let that guy slow play an overpair.The hand goes like this:RAISE: He folds and you win the pot. Fairly frequent. Otherwise, you raise and he has it, and you fold to a reraise.RAISE AND VILLAIN CALLS: You check behind without a set and potentially call the river based soley on reads. No reads, fold river.RAISE AND VILLAIN RAISES: Easy fold.As far as calling goes, **** that. You have to define your hand in the VILLAIN'S mind to win this pot. Defining your hand on the flop is a very important part of NLHE. The best play is a raise. You define your hand as stronger than you are, and if you're behind, the villain will not give you a tough decison, but an easy one.Anyway....that's what I think.
Thing is. Since Villain won't bet the turn with less than a hand you define your hand by calling.

#24 dkelloway

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Posted 05 December 2006 - 12:33 PM

I would call, and fold to a bet if another high card comes out. However, if he calls, i'll bet 1/2-2/3 of the pot to try to take it away from him if a low card comes. Your call on the flop is basically a bluff...With a good turn bet, you could make him fold TT or a lower PP, but he's not folding the overpairs and AJ

#25 Big Blue

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Posted 06 December 2006 - 11:33 AM

If he isn't gonna fire again.... call and bet when he checks.Agree that a "free" card to pair his overs is less expensive than a raise if we're beat.Note: Another example of why not to be so predictable...

#26 Orcasgt22

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Posted 06 December 2006 - 12:17 PM

I make the raise. If he calls, I probably have him beat unless an over card hits the turn. If he reraises me, Insta muck the hand and make a mental note of what happened.Either way, thats a tough situation to be in.
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#27 LooseCannon

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Posted 06 December 2006 - 01:27 PM

You are a slight favorite against your opponent's range of hands. (53% according to pokerstove). In this case, you are probably way ahead or way behind, with position on an aggressor and you're not likely to face future bets if you are way behind.Ideally, you call and it goes check-check on both the turn and river (unless you catch a nine or a runner-runner straight). I don't get why some people are assuming that your opponent will bet again on the turn if he has a hand like a set and never check the turn there.If your opponent will only bet the turn if he has a hand and the category of "a hand" includes picking up a draw and he will bet again if he has KQ and catches a ten on the turn of an open-ended straight draw or if he gets halfway there on his backdoor flush draw. "A hand" could also be anything that beats middle pair.This means that even though you are a slight favorite against his hand range, you're not going to win this hand 53% of the time if you follow the strategy of caling and folding to any further action. And you don't get implied odds for a call from being able to trap him for a second continuation bet on the turn or river.I think that this might make it close enough that the idea of folding despite being a favorite against your opponent's range is a non-ludicrous proposition (although not necessarily the right play), especially when you consider the stack sizes and the blind sizes and consider that this is probably relatively early in a 10K buy-in tournament. This is a spot where you should consider passing up a small edge early on in a tournament. For all you people who wanted to fold AK vs QJ on the first hand of the WSOP, you were in better shape then than here.The more that I think about it, the more that I think you should fold, especially if you are a good player at a weak table.As for holding JT, you're in much better shape and have more outs if you are beat (unless you are against a set) and calling on the flop makes more sense.Of course, this all assumes that your opponent won't fold AA to a raise on the flop. There are some players who are tight enough to do so, because a raise represents a set or two pair on a board like that with little semi-bluffing opportunities.

#28 fiezk

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Posted 07 December 2006 - 04:19 AM

I don't know about poker stove, but according to my calculations we are ahead about 63% of the time. (We beat: 5pp, AK, AQ, KQ - 78 combinations. We're behind: 4pp, AJ, 3 sets - 45 combinations). This is according to the hand range given in the quiz, I tend to think that villain won't raise 22-77 100% of the time though.There are two ways to find out where we stand. 1. Raise to 3k. 2. Call. By calling we will give away equity in the cases where we are ahead, but by raising we are risking more chips. What I call 'added loss' is the cost associated with each option in order to find out if we have the best hand. To make it simple, let's say Villain will fold all hands except AJ, QQ, KK and AA to a 3k raise. And will fire again with TT+ (including improved drawing hands). If we are behind Villain has, roughly, an average of 4 outs. Which means that 63 percent of the time we are giving away about 8 percent in equity. Pot is 3200 after our call, making our 'added loss' 0.63*0.08*3200=161 chips.By raising we will lose 2000 37% of the time making our 'added loss': 0.37*2000=740.I don't know, maybe I've made a crucial mistake somewhere (please correct me if I have), but it looks like a clear call to me. Also, will villain continue betting if he/she picks up a draw or with a hand like 77? This changes things slightly.

#29 David_Nicoson

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Posted 07 December 2006 - 05:36 AM

View Postfiezk, on Thursday, December 7th, 2006, 7:19 AM, said:

I don't know about poker stove, but according to my calculations we are ahead about 63% of the time. (We beat: 5pp, AK, AQ, KQ - 78 combinations. We're behind: 4pp, AJ, 3 sets - 45 combinations). This is according to the hand range given in the quiz, I tend to think that villain won't raise 22-77 100% of the time though.
Pokerstove compares the showdown potential after the river of the ranges while you're computing the current leader. I think you're on the right path here.We're not going to a river most of the time here. We need to know likely we're ahead on the flop and then again on the turn if we give a free card. There's also the rare occasion when we hit our two-outer on the turn.
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#30 Bubba83

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Posted 07 December 2006 - 07:12 AM

I think that is an incredibly easy smooth call, it keeps us from losing too much if we're beat and with your read we should still have a good idea of where we're at in the hand on the turn. Also, the board is not draw heavy so we don't need to worry about charging him since according to your read he cannot have a straight draw.

#31 LooseCannon

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Posted 07 December 2006 - 01:20 PM

View Postfiezk, on Thursday, December 7th, 2006, 4:19 AM, said:

I don't know about poker stove, but according to my calculations we are ahead about 63% of the time. (We beat: 5pp, AK, AQ, KQ - 78 combinations. We're behind: 4pp, AJ, 3 sets - 45 combinations). This is according to the hand range given in the quiz, I tend to think that villain won't raise 22-77 100% of the time though.
Part of your math problem is that when you're behind, you're often about 10% to suck out, while when you're ahead you opponent is 25% to draw out, so you can't weigh hands equally.

#32 fiezk

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Posted 07 December 2006 - 02:49 PM

View PostLooseCannon, on Thursday, December 7th, 2006, 1:20 PM, said:

Part of your math problem is that when you're behind, you're often about 10% to suck out, while when you're ahead you opponent is 25% to draw out, so you can't weigh hands equally.
Look at the calculations again, I'm not 'weighing hands equally'. Second, there are two more inaccuracies. 1. Villain has on average 4 outs (not 6) if he's ahead. 2. This hand will probably not see the river, regardless if we raise or call on the flop.

#33 TareqB

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Posted 07 December 2006 - 10:50 PM

Well, he bet the pot size, which means he did not flop the nuts most probably. If he had pocket sevens, fours, or an over pair, he will probably bet small, maybe half the pot size, to try to keep me in. If he had a monster like a set of Jacks, he probably will check, to try and trap me. So, I could only guess he has A-K, and try to buy the pot right here, and if I call he will still be in good shape. Or he might have A-J, and he is trying to protect his Jacks with the top kicker with that big bet.I definitely will not fold in here. My nines are still not too bad. If I hit a 9 on the turn, I could break him. If the turn comes 10 or 8, I will have a gutshot straight draw, and will move in on the turn, on a semi bluff. Therefore, I still am not too weak to fold.I also will not move in here, because if I did, and he had A-J, I'm dominated and he will call. He will fold the A-K or any pocket pair, but I don't want to risk the whole thing.Smooth calling here might look nice, but I won't call. If I called I will have no idea what he has. I also know he will fire again on the turn. If a big card comes, I can't call, and if his raise is big enough, even with a small card on the turn, the Jack will scare me, and I will still be worried he hit a set on the turn.Therefore, I will raise 3000. It's a big raise here. He will put me on a J with a lower kicker than his of course (if he had A-J), maybe he will even be worried I made a set, or I have an over pair. If he had a hand like A-K, A-Q, he will almost definitely fold to my re-raise. If he has A-J, he will most probably just call. I could then bluff if the turn comes a K or a Q, fold if an Ace or a small card comes - and of course hope for a 9. I think the re-raise is the best move here, I will get a lot of info regarding his hand, take control of the hand, scare him a bit, and set up a bluff if I needed it.Another thing,I would try to let him talk, pick up some tells, and get a better read on him, that will help me a lot. This is a situation I like to ask the question: " How much do you have left?", just to let him worry about my hand.By the way, I am putting him on pocket 10s.

#34 Magnifico

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Posted 08 December 2006 - 05:27 AM

Hi, (first post here)So Villian is a learning player...hihi...I think he is just playing orthodoxly (agressive and here with a hand), I mean he's got his trips on flop because the flop is not drawing anything. He bet on flop : a very good play indeed.Remember :1/villain has not a good position.2/it is like a HU pot : nothing to steal!That shows that there are limits even when playing agressive : you have to keep ur sens of danger. Be cautious here, the flop didnt help you and helped villian that's simple.I'd fold here...NB: Im frenchy, I m not a beginner in Poker, worse, I just played once in my whole life...I m just learning from books and DN's quiz is very funny. So dont take my opinion seriously. Thx

#35 simo_8ball

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Posted 08 December 2006 - 05:37 AM

View PostTareqB, on Friday, December 8th, 2006, 6:50 AM, said:

I also know he will fire again on the turn.
Only if he is beating you. Read DN's post more clearly - the guy will give up on the turn if he has nothing.

#36 Canada

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Posted 08 December 2006 - 05:53 AM

If we assume that we are not folding 1000 is going in regardless.Cost of finding out you're winning by raising? 2000Cost of finding out you're winning by calling? (6/47)*(2500) = 319.15The (6/47)*(2500) represents the lost equity for giving a free card. It should actually be less because villain will not always have 6 outs.Seems like a pretty easy call to me unless you are ahead > 85% of the time on the flop
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#37 jjburdick

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Posted 08 December 2006 - 08:06 PM

Is this a cash game or a tourney? Cash game I raise and if he calls and I don't improve I shut down and reach in my pocket after the hand is done and buy back up with hopes of getting my money back at a later time from the weak player at the table.Tourney I flat call and see what the turn brings because the extra 2000 raise is worth more because my tournament life is on the line(assuming its early in the tournament). Also, I still have a chance of winning the hand if he doesn't bet the turn with minimal risk.

#38 no eff eks

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Posted 10 December 2006 - 05:03 PM

Two options here -1. Fold... There is a chance you are ahead, but the 1000 is not a small bet considering the pot size. This is a "learning" player so I would be less inclined to put them on a bluff.2. Raise to 3000... this will probably win the pot for you unless they hold an overpair or AJ. I prefer raising here, because more often than not your nines are good - but calling will not tell you a damn thing. If the guy holds something like 88 he has no reason to stop betting when you just call.... but if he just calls - you have a good chance to chase him off the better hand - and if he folds you have already got all the value you could have out of this hand (he wasn't going to keep betting if you called, and would have folded to a raise anyway - so why give him the chance to suck out).Calling seems like the worst option. You could make a case for pushing all in, since I doubt guy has any better than just one pair - but that would depend on if you think this is a good enough player to throw away something like top pair or an overpair.

#39 cmak3687

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Posted 10 December 2006 - 10:53 PM

I personally don't think theres enough information to make the "perfect" decision here, but based on the information i'd smooth call. Personally i'd smooth call on that flop with a lot of hands, and i play a lot of hands. Smooth calling accomplishes a few things here in my opinion. One, it allows a scare card to roll off on the turn. Unless the villain turns two pair, or flopped a set, or turns a set, its going to be hard for him to proceed in the hand. If i'm flat calling with hands like 56, 67, 78, j10, qj, kj, aj, jj, 77, 44, theres almost no safe turn card. So when the turn comes, hes going to check if he has nothing, and theres a good chance hes going to check, and fold the best hand. If he turns top pair, he's still not going to be too comfortable in this hand. On a J 7 4 rainbow board, its not very draw heavy, so flat calling is typically indicative of a stronger hand. So by flat calling, you are comitting less chips on the flop, and you're increasing your chance of getting him to lay down the best hand.I think raising is pretty weak hear. Flat calling generally represents a bigger hand than a raise. There's not too much value in raising with a jack here. Most of the time you're either going to have your opponent crushed, or be crushed yourself. Raising will only get you called by a better hand, and prevent weaker hands from proceeding. So if your opponent feels most people aren't going to raise with the jack, than that really only leaves a few hands that would raise, and that would be a hand exactly like you have, 10 10, 99, or 88, or the 56. You open the door for your opponent to push you off the best hand instead of you pushing your opponent off a hand. There is a chance he might fold the best hand also, but i feel like hes going to fold the best hand more often when you flat call him.

#40 Canada

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Posted 11 December 2006 - 02:30 AM

View Postno eff eks, on Monday, December 11th, 2006, 1:03 AM, said:

This is a "learning" player so I would be less inclined to put them on a bluff.
The learning reference is DN stating that he (DN) is learning the correct terminology for wording these questions.Also I think you missed this bitYou know that Villian will likely make a continuation bet with any of the hands he has.
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