Jump to content


answer to quizz question #7


  • Please log in to reply
36 replies to this topic

#1 DanielNegreanu

DanielNegreanu

    Poker Forum Veteran

  • Root Admin
  • 8,301 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Las Vegas

Posted 13 March 2005 - 08:04 AM

Before I answer the question, let's look at the following simulations where 7 :) 8 :) is up against the following hands:vs 2 :) 2 :D 53.48%vs A :) K :) 41.92%vs A :) 6 :D 47.59%vs A :) A :) 23.11%vs 8 :) 6 :) 61.76%vs A :club: 8 :D 34.35% Now, it's 6000 to call and you could win 8400. So you are getting about 4 to 3 odds on your money. Factoring in all of Antonio's possible holdings it appears as though I was getting the right price in this situation. I was in this hand and made a mistake. My thinking was that I could win the next hand if Antonio didn't have anything. I knew as I folded it was a mistake. I later talked to Gus Hansen about the hand and he thought my laydown was absolutely horrible. It was the wrong play for sure, but I wouldn't go as far as horrible. Antonio later told me that he had A :D 6 :D so while I was getting 1.4 to 1 odds, I ended up folding in a coinflip situation.
Posted Image

#2 Wilderness

Wilderness

    Poker Forum Groupie

  • Members
  • 598 posts
  • Location:Washington DC

Posted 13 March 2005 - 09:11 AM

Hey, I got another one right, I must be a pro :D My reasoning, as well as most of people in the question thread who said to call, was pretty much what you said. You've got a hand that is probably not much worse than a coinflip or so and you need to double up badly. You have no reason to think that you will either get another good hand very soon or that he will fold to an all-in push once you've folded this and maybe another hand so you have to take your chance with this hand right now.
Jason

#3 JohnnyCache

JohnnyCache

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 54 posts
  • Interests:Poker

Posted 13 March 2005 - 09:14 AM

My thought was at those blinds, it was better to go now then later - there's a very good chance of going broke before you get another hand as playable. Easy for me to say now tho.
--The Man In #000000

#4 packattack

packattack

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 22 posts
  • Location:Lake Geneva, Wisconsin
  • Interests:Poker, Fantasy Football

Posted 13 March 2005 - 03:51 PM

I'm curious though Daniel...when did you end up making your move, and did you get your money in with the best hand?
"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies." -The Shawshank Redemption-

#5 KDawgCometh

KDawgCometh

    old skool

  • Members
  • 15,174 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:the bebop
  • Interests:poker(duh), soccer, football, rugby, music, and film

Posted 13 March 2005 - 05:48 PM

I'm surprised that Antonio had that good of a hand considering that his range could even put you in a favorite situation. The stack is so short that you are getting good odds on your $$$ considering the opponent
Wine Notes for those that care about such pretentious things

#6 dEv~

dEv~

    In Shero We Trust...oops

  • Members
  • 8,766 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hockeytawn, PA

Posted 13 March 2005 - 09:11 PM

I voted call but I'm sad to say it wasn't for any of those reasons. Thats quite a chip desperity and with a nice suited connector I can't let it go. You're going to have to get lucky as it is...so why not try it out with a pretty hand like that.
Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

#7 KingAustin

KingAustin

    I love Corvettes

  • Members
  • 1,907 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Iowa
  • Interests:Poker, Computers, Corvettes
  • Favorite Poker Game:Limit Holdem

Posted 14 March 2005 - 08:17 AM

Holy crap, after I read the situation I easily decided to call and then told myself he might have A6 or something. Now I read that he did have A6, wow!!! I can't believe I called that. Probably just lucky guess.Quick question, why are you an underdog to 8 :D 6 :) ?
"You know that feeling when you take a huge dump...awesome" -Cartman

#8 Jubba

Jubba

    Poker Forum Nut

  • Members
  • 255 posts
  • Location:The rail...

Posted 14 March 2005 - 08:30 AM

He's not an underdog. He's a 61.7% favorite. Those percentages are his chance of winning. You're just reading it backwards. :)I voted call because suited connectors are about a coinflip to any two random cards. And this is probably your best chance to double up and get back in the race.

#9 KingAustin

KingAustin

    I love Corvettes

  • Members
  • 1,907 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Iowa
  • Interests:Poker, Computers, Corvettes
  • Favorite Poker Game:Limit Holdem

Posted 14 March 2005 - 08:33 AM

Jubba said:

He's not an underdog. He's a 61.7% favorite. Those percentages are his chance of winning. You're just reading it backwards. :D
Wow, do I feel smart >.< :oops: :oops: This just goes to prove that my call of Antonio's cards was lucky.
"You know that feeling when you take a huge dump...awesome" -Cartman

#10 maddog2030

maddog2030

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 2 posts

Posted 14 March 2005 - 05:26 PM

DanielNegreanu said:

I later talked to Gus Hansen about the hand and he thought my laydown was absolutely horrible.  It was the wrong play for sure, but I wouldn't go as far as horrible.
I'm always interested in hearing Gus' reasoning for things. Did he explain why he thought the fold was absolutely horrible?

#11 jogsxyz

jogsxyz

    Poker Forum Regular

  • Members
  • 213 posts

Posted 14 March 2005 - 08:51 PM

Horrible? The fold can't be that bad.Assume Antonio is playing any ace, any pair.87s needs 1.48 from the pot to call. Danielis getting 1.4 on this pot. That's a marginaldon't call. Gus decided that Antonio has atempo tell. Gus called Antonio with T8 ofdiamonds when Antonio took too long to raiseall in. Say Antonio gave away that he didn'thold a high pair, AK, or AQs. Now the 87sneeds only 1.34 from the pot. This time it'smarginally right to call. Big deal. 87s isonly 47.76% against a set of random hands.Whatever Daniel did on this deal, it wouldn'thave improved his chances of winning the matchmuch. What about the hand that crippledDaniel? That's the hand I'm interested inseeing.

#12 Wlleiotl

Wlleiotl

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 90 posts
  • Location:Keele Uni

Posted 15 March 2005 - 06:55 AM

gus says to call because he has to make a stand, even if he steals next hand hes back to this same situation and theres no way to avoid having to win some races to get back from this situationthats what i think anyway

#13 Wlleiotl

Wlleiotl

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 90 posts
  • Location:Keele Uni

Posted 15 March 2005 - 06:57 AM

Short-stacked from the earlier hand, Daniel goes all in with J-10 suited against Antonio Esfandiari's K-9. The flop comes K-9-3, giving Antonio two pair, but leaving Daniel with a gut-shot straight draw. A meaningless 4 falls on the turn, and a king on the river gives Antonio a full house and eliminates Daniel Negreanu from the tournament.

#14 Marcstar

Marcstar

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 92 posts
  • Location:Texas
  • Interests:Video Games, Movies, good food, and obviously poker.

Posted 15 March 2005 - 09:09 AM

I skipped the replys but I'm not sure the fold is so horrible. Surely you can pick a better spot in a hand or two where you think you might be better than a coinflip. Sure in this place we now know you are a coin flip but you are going to be a dog against a larger pair or two bigger cards. A coin flip is really about the best you could hope for. If you think half the time you are going to be a dog and half the time you might be a coin flip to me I don't want to risk my entire stack in this situation.I'm not sure if I got any of the other quiz quetions wrong but in this case I guess I got it wrong but I do disagree. It's a close one either way but I actually like how you played it in the first place. Fold. But what do I know.

#15 Jubba

Jubba

    Poker Forum Nut

  • Members
  • 255 posts
  • Location:The rail...

Posted 15 March 2005 - 02:56 PM

The problem with folding is that even if you get AA on the next hand and double up, your stack will still be insignificant. Doubling up and having a stack of 14,400 would be better than 12,000. That extra 2,400 is another 1.5 rounds of the blinds to find another strong hand.And suited connecters are about a coin-flip to any two random cards (except an overpair).

#16

  • Guests

Posted 16 March 2005 - 03:14 AM

87s isnt good at a full table, but not too bad. Its definantly above averageHeads up 87s is a bad hand. Maybe somewhere in between marginal and bad at best. Its definantly below average. 8J unsuited, for exampe is considerably better heads up. Too many people dont adjust for heads up play properly. Remember, 27 isnt the worst hand heads up, 23 is. All odds are different, implied and implicit.I'll fold this hand here, and still think even after what I've heard from Daniel and Gus (however much i respect them) its the right thing to do. As someone mentioned, assuming he'll do this with any two picture cards (my addition), any ace, or any pocket pair, Poker Stove says your not getting odds to call. I know you need to double up, but chances are you'll get a better hand NEXT hand.

#17 nitrolife

nitrolife

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 26 posts

Posted 16 March 2005 - 04:22 AM

But NEXT hand pays 2400 less........and you ain't gotta no chippies. The fact remains, even Gus or DN are highly HIGHLY unlikely to come back from 10 to 1....luv'm, but it ain't happening.
You are wrong everytime, I am right everytime. That does not mean I am saying I am perfect....I'm much too humble to admit the obvious.

#18 Jubba

Jubba

    Poker Forum Nut

  • Members
  • 255 posts
  • Location:The rail...

Posted 16 March 2005 - 09:39 AM

Yeah, thats why I say call and then have AE buy you a drink...

#19 AceOfSpades

AceOfSpades

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 51 posts

Posted 16 March 2005 - 04:46 PM

I voted call. Its a pretty easy decision if you think about it. Your sitting with 78 suited. He went all in. You only have enough chips to play 5 more hands if you fold. And if you win you double up making yourself alot more of a threat to your opponent. If lets say he was sitting with Pocket Aces Or Pockey Kings...and he revealed his cards by an accident, I would've still called him. You need to make a move at some point. He went all in, giving you a chance to double up, not many chances when the chip leaders gonna do that.

#20 Shorty

Shorty

    Poker Forum Newbie

  • Members
  • 17 posts

Posted 16 March 2005 - 06:16 PM

vs A :D 8 :) 34.35%Hey Daniel Are we playing with 2 8 of diamonds in this tourney? :PEDIT: ahhh methinks you probly mean A :) 8 :)




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users