navybuttons, on Wednesday, June 7th, 2006, 4:22 PM, said:
i think most of you play too much online and don't know how fast some players can play in B&M casinos. you shouldn't over look that, or over look the fact that a lot of the players in the big game play some really tricky ways.
Exactly - especially given the reads that DN has provided us with on the O8 play in that game.Easy Cap IMO....You have the button, use it.A raise and 3 calls pre-flop suggests that BB was probably reraising with a premium low hand, and the lack of RR preflop suggests that UTG does not have AA. The one hand I am afraid of here is KK.Post flop: BB continues, UTG raises his 2 pair or weak flush draw, next 2 reraise their JT, nut flush draw or possibly KK (or bluff with JJ).When you cap, BB is facing 4 bets cold for a low only draw (or non-nut flush) and probably folds, UTG realises his 2 pair are no good and the other 2 will call. so you likely have a pot of about 33.5 small bets going into the turn with 3 players. Assuming all the aces are dead, you have 4 outs twice and another 3 outs once to scoop if you are against a str8 and a flush draw. So, at worst you are about 3:1 against. When you are faced with the flop situation, capping is offering you about 5.5:1; assume a BB goes in on turn and river and the final odds will be 9:36.5 or about 4:1.The 2 things that can screw this up is if one of the players have KK, or if they both have JT and it is bet and raised before it gets to you on the turn. However, this is offset at least partially by the chance that neither have the str8 and so they will check the turn to the capper, in which case you can bet and represent the str8. You also have the (likely) split outs of 3 J's.In O8 games like these, betting is often more about getting rid of players than it is about having the current best hand.