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Navybuttons Thoughts On Baseball


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#21 NickCave

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 10:19 PM

When it comes to game theory and baseball, there are other super interesting things to talk about, but most of them have been pounded already. Tango/Litchman have a book called The Book that addresses all the cool game theoretically-optimizing stuff. One of the cool ones is the frequency with which one should bunt, specifically in high leverage situations. Like, say it's GTO to bunt for a hit 1/88 plate appearances down by two, in the ninth inning, with your #5 hitter up, runner on 1st no out, just as a balance issue, in order for your bunting to be unexploitable via fielder positioning. Let's say you randomize perfectly, using an 88 sided die in the dugout.

Now let's say it's game 7 of the World Series. Do you still use the die? Or are you like, "fuck this, he's gotta swing away?"

#22 BigDMcGee

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 10:40 PM

navy, do you know about the Eephus pitch? Perhaps that would be a suitable alternative to the "no ball" in terms of head games.
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#23 NickCave

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 10:50 PM

View PostBigDMcGee, on 30 October 2013 - 10:40 PM, said:

navy, do you know about the Eephus pitch? Perhaps that would be a suitable alternative to the "no ball" in terms of head games.

Oh, man, you couldn't leave a space for AmScray to get his favorite nut in?

#24 BigDMcGee

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 10:53 PM

I can't wait around all day for scram to click on this thread. He's probably busy building a free shed while hedging Hendricks submission bets against GSP with his Dominican bookie
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#25 navybuttons

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 07:04 AM

I don't like the idea of the Eephus pitch. Psychologically it just seems super weak. If I'm gonna dare a batter I'd rather throw a change-up over some complete junk. Or maybe pitching-out with a 0-2 count or something.

NC, would the batter ever effect those numbers enough to change the situation? Take a hitter like Vladimir Guerrero who could smash balls way out of the zone. Silly? Yes! Easily dismissable? I wasn't sure.

Okay, let's say that every position is familiar enough with situations that the difference between having an ex-pitcher and an ex-first basemen as your manager is negligible. (which I don't believe, but we can discuss that later).

I think that there should be coordinators in a booth similar to football.

Thoughts?
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#26 navybuttons

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 08:35 AM

My intuition against a batter like guerrero may have been the exact opposite where he's the kind of batter it's terrible to give a free ball against.

my brain isn't working trying to solve this.
if you're not playing the notes in front of you it's not mozart.

#27 CobaltBlue

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 11:22 AM

I think I've brought it up before...but I always wondered if it'd be possible to pull a trick play that would basically be an intentional wild pitch. It may be impractical...but the idea being that if you had the right kind of backstop and had practiced it enough...you could intentionally get a rebound that allowed you to tag a out a runner at third that's going for the plate. It may just be too risky to try it, but I think if successful, it could dissuade runners a bit in the future.

#28 The Machine

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 11:30 AM

Ok, so I was looking for this gif regarding what Cobalt said:

Posted Image

when I came across this gif:

Posted Image

and now I need to know what happened on the next pitch.

#29 David_Sklansky

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 06:05 PM

Another thing that may or may not be worth mentioning is that catchers have been known to talk a lot of shit to batters, which I would imagine could be pretty disruptive. But I think it was in Baseball Between the Numbers where they did a pretty convincing job of demonstrating that catchers don't really have any ability to effect the pitcher/batter match up, and that their value is only variable in catching runners and stopping balls. I think the myth they were concerned with was a catcher's ability to "handle" pitchers, but unless I'm missing something it should also suggest that no one is meaningfully shit-talking anyone into a worse hitter.

To me, this is sort of more of a case for your thought, "I think shows that at the highest levels it's extremely difficult to rattle competitors."
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#30 NickCave

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 05:53 AM

NavyButtons was obviously revenge-trolling but I still want to talk about baseball theory. I AM SO TORN

#31 navybuttons

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 07:13 AM

oh, bumout.
if you're not playing the notes in front of you it's not mozart.

#32 The Machine

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 08:44 AM

View PostDavid_Sklansky, on 01 November 2013 - 06:05 PM, said:

But I think it was in Baseball Between the Numbers where they did a pretty convincing job of demonstrating that catchers don't really have any ability to effect the pitcher/batter match up, and that their value is only variable in catching runners and stopping balls. I think the myth they were concerned with was a catcher's ability to "handle" pitchers, but unless I'm missing something it should also suggest that no one is meaningfully shit-talking anyone into a worse hitter.

Pitch framing. Fan Graphs has done some good stuff about the effects of it and who does it well.

#33 NickCave

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:09 AM

View PostThe Machine, on 04 November 2013 - 08:44 AM, said:

Pitch framing. Fan Graphs has done some good stuff about the effects of it and who does it well.

Yeah, somehow it turns out maybe catchers are more important than pitchers. Bengie Molina is like Bonds.

#34 David_Sklansky

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 01:48 PM

Interesting. Link(s)?
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#35 The Machine

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 01:53 PM

http://www.fangraphs...ng-in-the-zone/

http://www.fangraphs...framing-update/

There's more if you search it out.

#36 David_Sklansky

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 02:07 PM

Thanks. I guess I shouldn't get my information from a ten-year-old article.
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#37 The Machine

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 02:14 PM

Posted Image

#38 David_Sklansky

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 04:48 PM

They really need to get rid of the officials and just track these things digitally. I don't know if I really think that, but baseball fans would lose their ****ing twats, so it's my new pet cause.
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#39 The Machine

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 04:52 PM

I do think the strike zone shouldn't be called by humans anymore. You would still have an umpire back there for hit batters, foul tips, stepping out of the batter's box, etc., so the union wouldn't complain about loss of jobs.

How quickly could the strike zone box relay a signal to the umpire to say if it's a strike? Like he wears a buzzer and it buzzes for every pitch in the strike zone. The umpire would still be back there giving the strike call and the emphatic strike three calls, but the only difference is that he isn't the one making the determination.

#40 NickCave

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 07:56 PM

View PostThe Machine, on 04 November 2013 - 04:52 PM, said:

I do think the strike zone shouldn't be called by humans anymore. You would still have an umpire back there for hit batters, foul tips, stepping out of the batter's box, etc., so the union wouldn't complain about loss of jobs.

How quickly could the strike zone box relay a signal to the umpire to say if it's a strike? Like he wears a buzzer and it buzzes for every pitch in the strike zone. The umpire would still be back there giving the strike call and the emphatic strike three calls, but the only difference is that he isn't the one making the determination.

100% this forever. Zero judgment. Perfection.




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