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Qdjd Flop Straight Fd Against Fish


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Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 playersThe Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History ConverterHero (CO): $61.15BTN: $123.80SB: $71.05BB: $55.65UTG: $8.25MP: $53.50Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Q :club: J :diamond:UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN calls $2.25, 3 foldsFlop: ($5.75) 9 :ts 2 :D T :D(2 players)Hero bets $3.75, BTN raises to $7.50, Hero raises to $20, BTN calls $12.50Turn: ($45.75) A :4h(2 players)Hero bets $38.90 all inVillain is extremely loose fish. 87/9/2 over 100 hands. Villain's fold to cb was only 38%, so he's peeling flop with pretty much anything. Villain also didn't fold a lot of turn bets, though I didn't double barrel him often. Wasn't sure how much fold equity I had against villain on the turn shove.

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As played the turn is certainly a shove and you really don't need any FE - though of course you'd be happy if he folded. I give you somewhere around 40% equity and you're getting better than 2:1 on a shove.Against this villain I think c/c the flop is probably better since I don't see him getting away from his hand if the flush or especially the str8 comes in. I also suspect that a Q or J are outs for you at least part of the time. An agg factor of 2 for a guy who plays 87% of pots is actually pretty high and I think he'd do this a lot with a T and maybe worse.

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Flop: ($5.75) 9 :club: 2 :D T :ts(2 players)Hero bets $3.75, BTN raises to $7.50, Hero raises to $20, BTN calls $12.50
If you're going to raise the flop, raise you like you ****ing mean it. What do you want to happen here? I'm pretty sure it's not get to the turn with the stack size you did.
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If you're going to raise the flop, raise you like you ****ing mean it. What do you want to happen here? I'm pretty sure it's not get to the turn with the stack size you did.
What's wrong with his stack size in relation to the pot on the turn? He had less than a pot bet left.
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If you're going to raise the flop, raise you like you ****ing mean it. What do you want to happen here? I'm pretty sure it's not get to the turn with the stack size you did.
I think the turn stack size is great in relation to the pot. And this turn card is probably not going to be great for villain, so it's a great shove card to maximize fold equity (though I'd probably shove just about any turn).
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I think the turn stack size is great in relation to the pot. And this turn card is probably not going to be great for villain, so it's a great shove card to maximize fold equity (though I'd probably shove just about any turn).
On what street do you think the hero made money?It's the same damn hand as the other thread, and it's pretty meaningless to deem a play a correct with no notion of how often he folds. It would stand to reason from the description that it's very seldom, in which case the hero loses money on the turn action. Against a player who can fold, it would be a good line.
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On what street do you think the hero made money?It's the same damn hand as the other thread, and it's pretty meaningless to deem a play a correct with no notion of how often he folds. It would stand to reason from the description that it's very seldom, in which case the hero loses money on the turn action. Against a player who can fold, it would be a good line.
Because a huge donk is going to have a one pair here a LOT, and a ton of them are going to fold the turn (or we're going to be getting it in with around 40% equity).It's a pretty simple concept. We currently have Q hi. We would prefer to win by making them fold. We're obviously not folding if we check and he shoves. Aggression is good. Passive is meh (usually you prefer being aggressive to being passive).I don't know how you don't understand this. You made a lot of retarded posts in the other threads, and you continue to fill this thread with your stupidity. Your bolded part makes me say "wat." In poker, we take perceived ranges and make educated guesses about the best line to take. In this case, I think 3betting flop and shoving turn is CLEARLY the correct play. Donks like this love to minraise flops with a ton of garbage, ESPECIALLY weak top pair hands. We have ridiculous equity vs his range on the flop, and still have a ton of equity vs his range on the turn. And to answer your first question, hero makes money on every street vs this kind of donk.
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Because a huge donk is going to have a one pair here a LOT, and a ton of them are going to fold the turn (or we're going to be getting it in with around 40% equity).It's a pretty simple concept. We currently have Q hi. We would prefer to win by making them fold. We're obviously not folding if we check and he shoves. Aggression is good. Passive is meh (usually you prefer being aggressive to being passive).I don't know how you don't understand this. You made a lot of retarded posts in the other threads, and you continue to fill this thread with your stupidity. Your bolded part makes me say "wat." In poker, we take perceived ranges and make educated guesses about the best line to take. In this case, I think 3betting flop and shoving turn is CLEARLY the correct play. Donks like this love to minraise flops with a ton of garbage, ESPECIALLY weak top pair hands. We have ridiculous equity vs his range on the flop, and still have a ton of equity vs his range on the turn. And to answer your first question, hero makes money on every street vs this kind of donk.
I just want to say this is beautiful, and well put.
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Because a huge donk is going to have a one pair here a LOT, and a ton of them are going to fold the turn (or we're going to be getting it in with around 40% equity).It's a pretty simple concept. We currently have Q hi. We would prefer to win by making them fold. We're obviously not folding if we check and he shoves. Aggression is good. Passive is meh (usually you prefer being aggressive to being passive).I don't know how you don't understand this. You made a lot of retarded posts in the other threads, and you continue to fill this thread with your stupidity. Your bolded part makes me say "wat." In poker, we take perceived ranges and make educated guesses about the best line to take. In this case, I think 3betting flop and shoving turn is CLEARLY the correct play. Donks like this love to minraise flops with a ton of garbage, ESPECIALLY weak top pair hands. We have ridiculous equity vs his range on the flop, and still have a ton of equity vs his range on the turn. And to answer your first question, hero makes money on every street vs this kind of donk.
What do you have against numbers? Did one kick your dog or something? How often do you think he folds the turn? It doesn't have to be a ton to break even, but can I put you down on record as saying more than 25%?There's no real value betting going on preflop. An unpaired hand isn't enough of a favorite to pay the rake.It's unlikely (but possible) that we're a significant favorite on the flop. *We're very likely a dog on the turn, so we're only making money on the folds. The whole key to understanding the profit in the hand is how often he folds the turn. Love the condescension. Keep it up.* I was thinking of two overs and a flush draw without the straight draw when I wrote this. We can certainly bet for value on the flop. I stand corrected.
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As played the turn is certainly a shove and you really don't need any FE -
Yes, yes you do. If he NEVER folds and once in a billion years he checks behind, then we should check the turn.Does everybody want to just ignore that for some reason?I don't want to get to the turn this way because I think he'll call the turn a lot. ("Oh crap, I'm pot committed. I guess I'll call. Whatever. Calling is fun.") I want to wager MORE on the flop so that I don't put money in as a dog on the turn or LESS on the flop so that my bet on the turn will be more likely to cause a fold.
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What do you have against numbers? Did one kick your dog or something? How often do you think he folds the turn? It doesn't have to be a ton to break even, but can I put you down on record as saying more than 25%?There's no real value betting going on preflop. An unpaired hand isn't enough of a favorite to pay the rake.It's unlikely (but possible) that we're a significant favorite on the flop.We're very likely a dog on the turn, so we're only making money on the folds. The whole key to understanding the profit in the hand is how often he folds the turn. Love the condescension. Keep it up.
equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	51.939%	  51.76% 	00.18% 			  7686 		   27.00   { QdJd }Hand 1: 	48.061%	  47.88% 	00.18% 			  7110 		   27.00   { QQ+ }	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	53.333%	  53.33% 	00.00% 			  3168 			0.00   { QdJd }Hand 1: 	46.667%	  46.67% 	00.00% 			  2772 			0.00   { T9o }	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	67.508%	  67.51% 	00.00% 			  6015 			0.00   { QdJd }Hand 1: 	32.492%	  32.49% 	00.00% 			  2895 			0.00   { ATo }	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	64.033%	  63.82% 	00.21% 			 24642 		   81.00   { QdJd }Hand 1: 	35.967%	  35.76% 	00.21% 			 13806 		   81.00   { ATo+ }	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	42.121%	  42.12% 	00.00% 			  1251 			0.00   { QdJd }Hand 1: 	57.879%	  57.88% 	00.00% 			  1719 			0.00   { 99 }

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Yes, yes you do. If he NEVER folds and once in a billion years he checks behind, then we should check the turn.Does everybody want to just ignore that for some reason?I don't want to get to the turn this way because I think he'll call the turn a lot. ("Oh crap, I'm pot committed. I guess I'll call. Whatever. Calling is fun.") I want to wager MORE on the flop so that I don't put money in as a dog on the turn or LESS on the flop so that my bet on the turn be more likely to cause a fold.
And you seem to be ignoring the fact that villain is running 87/9/2. He can literally show up with just K high here half the time, let alone the number of times he shows up with just one pair. This turn shove is so ridiculously standard I don't even know why we're discussing it.
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equity	 win	 tie		   pots won	 pots tied		 equity	 win	 tie		   pots won	 pots tied	 Hand 0:	 64.033%	  63.82%	 00.21%			  24642			81.00   { QdJd } Hand 1:	 35.967%	  35.76%	 00.21%			  13806			81.00   { ATo+ }

That's better than I thought. 3:2 against the whole range, let's say. Do you have any objection to a bigger bet on the flop?
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This turn shove is so ridiculously standard I don't even know why we're discussing it.
We weren't until the Panda gave a reason that I believe is demonstrably false. I questioned why we set up the turn play in the first place, but that's not really the same thing.
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Yes, yes you do. If he NEVER folds and once in a billion years he checks behind, then we should check the turn.Does everybody want to just ignore that for some reason?
People don't "NEVER fold." The whole point of being aggressive here and shoving the turn is because when we have a big hand like a set, we're never checking the turn. If we don't balance our range, any player with half a brain will know exactly where we are when we bet and when we check. Even when we're playing a moron like this who is playing nearly 90 percent of his hands, other people are at the table, and a few are watching you intently.That ace is a TERRIBLE card for the villain in this hand unless he holds a few exact hands (AT, A9, Set, NFD). It only adds to our fold equity, especially against an idiot who plays like this because their thought process for calling the flop with JT or KT is "Heh, he probably is trying to barrel me off top pair with AK, I'M NOT FOLDING THE TOPPEST PAIR IDIOT!" Then the turn comes and they puke in their mouths when we shove.
That's better than I thought. 3:2 against the whole range, let's say. Do you have any objection to a bigger bet on the flop?
Again, unless you're interested in trying to make it look like you're just trying to buy the pot, no, a bigger bet on the flop doesn't change anything. We put in half our money before the turn came, so unless we're shoving the flop, raising anything more than a few more dollars doesn't matter.
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People don't "NEVER fold." The whole point of being aggressive here and shoving the turn is because when we have a big hand like a set, we're never checking the turn. If we don't balance our range, any player with half a brain will know exactly where we are when we bet and when we check. Even when we're playing a moron like this who is playing nearly 90 percent of his hands, other people are at the table, and a few are watching you intently.
I think you're making sense here. It's just different than what I'm responding to. If you think the villain never folds, you shouldn't bet here. We would, in that case, have no "fold equity" and a shove would be a mistake. It's pure logic.The whole notion of balancing a range assumes that the villain is capable of folding.
That ace is a TERRIBLE card for the villain in this hand unless he holds a few exact hands (AT, A9, Set, NFD). It only adds to our fold equity, especially against an idiot who plays like this because their thought process for calling the flop with JT or KT is "Heh, he probably is trying to barrel me off top pair with AK, I'M NOT FOLDING THE TOPPEST PAIR IDIOT!" Then the turn comes and they puke in their mouths when we shove.
I like what you're saying here. We were, however, fortunate to receive an ace on the turn. If the turn bricks something else, he still loves his top pair against our phantom AK.
Again, unless you're interested in trying to make it look like you're just trying to buy the pot, no, a bigger bet on the flop doesn't change anything. We put in half our money before the turn came, so unless we're shoving the flop, raising anything more than a few more dollars doesn't matter.
Shoving the flop is exactly what I'm talking about. Bet the pot and raise twice the pot when he minraises.
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I think you're making sense here. It's just different than what I'm responding to. If you think the villain never folds, you shouldn't bet here. We would, in that case, have no "fold equity" and a shove would be a mistake. It's pure logic.The whole notion of balancing a range assumes that the villain is capable of folding.
That's just it, no one "never folds." We always have fold equity on the turn. Even people who never lay down top pair will fold on this turn because when we shove the turn (even if they're not giving us a range and are just playing their own cards) the only hands they beat are the K, Q and J high flush draws and the ace means they no longer have top pair. So unless they have a set, they literally lose to everything else.
I like what you're saying here. We were, however, fortunate to receive an ace on the turn. If the turn bricks something else, he still loves his top pair against our phantom AK.
We we're fortunate to get the ace, but a lot of the time we're improving on the turn (we have a billion outs on the flop). If you combine that with literally every other scare card that can come, we hit a good turn card to shove like 60-70% of the time so that we still have a lot of FE, and when we don't we're still like 3:2 dog only.
Shoving the flop is exactly what I'm talking about. Bet the pot and raise twice the pot when he minraises.
Then we have to be shoving our sets as well. Don't get me wrong, I love fast playing sets, but we get more value out of idiots with top pair if we make a smaller flop reraise and then shove the turn. It gets more money out of him on the flop while we basically always have an equity edge.
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What do you have against numbers? Did one kick your dog or something? How often do you think he folds the turn? It doesn't have to be a ton to break even, but can I put you down on record as saying more than 25%?
This entire post just reeks of stupidity. Either this is a level or you don't even have the beginnings of a clue here.On the turn villain doesn't need to fold in order for hero to profit. Yes even though we're almost certainly a dog. Hero likely has about 40% equity and is getting better than 2:1 on a shove. You understand this don't you?
There's no real value betting going on preflop. An unpaired hand isn't enough of a favorite to pay the rake.It's unlikely (but possible) that we're a significant favorite on the flop.
There's no value in unpaired hands pre-flop? What kinds of drugs are you taking? And we're very likely a significant favorite on this flop and never a big dog.
We're very likely a dog on the turn, so we're only making money on the folds. The whole key to understanding the profit in the hand is how often he folds the turn.
We're going to play a little game you and I. I'll write down four numbers between 1 and 10 in secret. You'll pick a number between 1 and 10. I'm only going to be correct 40% of the time so you'll make a killing. Oh, did I forget to mention that when you win I pay you $10 and when I win you pay me $20? But don't worry about that since you'll win much more often than I do. When can we start?
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This entire post just reeks of stupidity. Either this is a level or you don't even have the beginnings of a clue here.On the turn villain doesn't need to fold in order for hero to profit. Yes even though we're almost certainly a dog. Hero likely has about 40% equity and is getting better than 2:1 on a shove. You understand this don't you?
I understand how odds work. The problem here is that I want to analyze the marginal effects of the turn play and you want to give the hero credit for his equity in the pot, which I think is wrong.
We're going to play a little game you and I. I'll write down four numbers between 1 and 10 in secret. You'll pick a number between 1 and 10. I'm only going to be correct 40% of the time so you'll make a killing. Oh, did I forget to mention that when you win I pay you $10 and when I win you pay me $20? But don't worry about that since you'll win much more often than I do. When can we start?
Ahh, but this isn't what happens in this hand.Say we both put in $10 for a $20 total ante. You write down 4 numbers in secret. I pick a number in secret.You can bet up to $10 more. How much do you wish to wager that you have correctly guessed the number? 0, right? It's only the existence of the option to fold that can make a turn shove profitable.
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Ahh, but this isn't what happens in this hand.Say we both put in $10 for a $20 total ante. You write down 4 numbers in secret. I pick a number in secret.You can bet up to $10 more. How much do you wish to wager that you have correctly guessed the number? 0, right? It's only the existence of the option to fold that can make a turn shove profitable.
But that's not equivalent to our situation. If you setup those rules at the beginning of the hand it'd take a fool to agree. When we put in the money on the flop we're a favorite. On the turn we have zero chance to win by folding and 40% chance to win > 2x our bet by betting.Once we get to the turn the only smart move is to shove. (Ok, I'll grant that if you have a sworn affidavit from villain that he'll check behind if you check and call 100% of the time if you bet AND he'll payoff any river bet you chose to make then you can check but in reality you never have that).Now you can argue that the flop 3-bet which puts us in the position is not good. If villain folds almost never on the the flop AND will stack off if we hit our draw then it makes sense to not 3-bet. In reality even the worst villain can fold to a shove when a flush draw (the most obvious of all draws) comes in at least some of the time. Interestingly enough if villain promises that he'll never under any circumstances fold on the flop but he will fold if a 3rd diamond comes up then our best play is to shove the flop.
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But that's not equivalent to our situation. If you setup those rules at the beginning of the hand it'd take a fool to agree.
It doesn't matter how we got there. When we analyze the turn play, we analyze the turn play.
When we put in the money on the flop we're a favorite. On the turn we have zero chance to win by folding and 40% chance to win > 2x our bet by betting.
Folding=bad. Yep.
Once we get to the turn the only smart move is to shove. (Ok, I'll grant that if you have a sworn affidavit from villain that he'll check behind if you check and call 100% of the time if you bet AND he'll payoff any river bet you chose to make then you can check but in reality you never have that).
It doesn't take all that. If he folds about 15% of the time and never pays off, pushing is the same EV as checking through.
Now you can argue that the flop 3-bet which puts us in the position is not good. If villain folds almost never on the the flop AND will stack off if we hit our draw then it makes sense to not 3-bet. In reality even the worst villain can fold to a shove when a flush draw (the most obvious of all draws) comes in at least some of the time. Interestingly enough if villain promises that he'll never under any circumstances fold on the flop but he will fold if a 3rd diamond comes up then our best play is to shove the flop.
We'd prefer to hit the straight, I suspect.
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