UncleHoot 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 Stacks (starting with SB=you)SB 8500BB 6000UTG 2000BTN 350010-player SnGYou have 8500 chips and are on SB(100) with Kc 4cFolded to you.You callBB calls (Pot 400)Flop Kd 4d 9sYou bet 200BB raises to 400You bet 1,000 more (Pot now 2,000)BB pushes4,600 for you to call, blinds go to 400 on next hand.Folding would still leave you with 7,100 chips.Calling and winning will give you a very good chance of winning the tourney outright (14,500 chips).BB has been moderately aggressive throughout the tournament, so he could certainly be on a flush draw, but you believe it is unlikely that he has made a set, as he would have likely raised or pushed preflop. K9 seems like your worst possibility, if you call. Link to post Share on other sites
Royal_Tour 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 raise preflop with your stack size and situationIf still in this situattion i push him all in Link to post Share on other sites
UncleHoot 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 raise preflop with your stack size and situationIf still in this situattion i push him all inWell, it's not like I had K3... But I suppose a suited King could be worth raising PF when folded to. But there had been a lot of stealing going on that the table, so it seemed like an opportunity to slow things down. Oh well, that's hindisight.Anyway, did you mean that you would have pushed after his bet of 400? Or did you mean call (his push)? Link to post Share on other sites
Jdr999 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 Easy call with two pair.I'm guessing you called, and they had a flush draw and hit it. Link to post Share on other sites
UncleHoot 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 Easy call with two pair.I'm guessing you called, and they had a flush draw and hit it.It's quite possible that this is a 60/40 situation. I am most likely a favorite, but is it worth taking that risk on the bubble with one shortstack about to get even shorter? It's also possible (though more remote) that I am beat on the flop.I would say that it is worth risking. I just want to be certain of why. I would say that I probably had a 50% chance of winning the tournament with that hand, and perhaps a 30% chance of going out on the bubble, but that's just my guessing. If I folded, I would probably give myself a 30-35% chance of winning, with a smaller, perhaps 15-20%, chance of bubbling, but I'd probably be 80% to be somewhere in the money.But those numbers are just pulled out of my rear, after having a feel for the other players. I can't say that I thought of all of that before deciding to fold/call.Now, assuming that those percentages actually mean something, (c'mon just make the assumption), couldn't we then break this down into an actual table of probabilities and pay-outs? Let's see (10+1 buy-in):if I call (and it's a 60/40):50% X (50) = 25 (1st)35% X (20+30) = 17.5 (2nd or 3rd)15% X 0 = 0.00 (bubble)--------implied avg pay-off, if I call = 42.50if I fold:30% X (50) = 15.00 (1st)50% X (20+30) = 25.00 (2nd or 3rd)20% X 0 = 0.00 (bubble)--------implied avg pay-off if I fold = 35.00I'm not Actuary, and I'm not an actuary, either. But this seems like a decent way to view the situation. If not, please explain why. Perhaps I'm over-valuing or undervaluing some percentages, but it seems fairly reasonable to make the fold. If anyone has a better idea what those percentages might actually be, feel free to make suggestions. Yes, my biggest mistake may have been not taking the pot sooner, but that's hindsight.(There's your 7 paragraphs)EDIT: Changed "call" percentage to 15% for bubbling from 30% (i.e. call and lose then bubble = 30%, whereas it's probably very small if I win the hand)EDIT 2: I suck. I was subtracting the buy-in from every potential place, which was also wrong. Perhaps the buy-in is not relavent at all.EDIT 3: Buy-in should not be subracted until the end, or not at all. Groan. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 If BB is me, fold.I'm never pushing in there afer your raise to 1000 with a range you are good against.*****************against most dummies that gamble too much here, you can call. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 I agree with RT, raise preflop. Kx is a good hand BvB, but not one that is likely to make a lot of money, so take down the blinds, or at least know hes got some value.I have a lot of trouble figuring out what he could be playing like this that doesnt beat you, unless he is way overplaying top pair. If you call and lose you are giving up a good shot at first, and probably 2d and 3rd as well. Win and 1st becomes extremely likely. Those are pretty good odds!It comes down to reads and a coin flip, given the hands that a decent player would be playing this way. A preflop raise that was called would give you a lot more comfort here. Link to post Share on other sites
gadjet 11 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 Easy call with two pair.I'm guessing you called, and they had a flush draw and hit it.QFT on both... Link to post Share on other sites
UncleHoot 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 EDIT: Removed post and restated: Folding may be not be a bad play. Overall, I'm perhaps likely to get about 20% more money by calling, if he is on some type of 60/40 draw. QFT on both...It was YOU! Link to post Share on other sites
Gallo 1 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 Stacks (starting with SB=you)SB 8500BB 6000UTG 2000BTN 350010-player SnGYou have 8500 chips and are on SB(100) with Kc 4cFolded to you.You callBB calls (Pot 400)Flop Kd 4d 9sYou bet 200BB raises to 400You bet 1,000 more (Pot now 2,000)BB pushes4,600 for you to call, blinds go to 400 on next hand.Folding would still leave you with 7,100 chips.Calling and winning will give you a very good chance of winning the tourney outright (14,500 chips).BB has been moderately aggressive throughout the tournament, so he could certainly be on a flush draw, but you believe it is unlikely that he has made a set, as he would have likely raised or pushed preflop. K9 seems like your worst possibility, if you call.I probably make the call here, I don't think he's pushing a flush draw here. It almsot smells as if he has like AA as much as he pushed. Or he could really be overplaying top pair here. Either way, even if you lose here you would still have2500 left, which I don't think it's that bad at this stage. If you win then you have a dominant chip lead and should be able to at least take 2nd. I think the good far outweighs the bad here. I'd call. Link to post Share on other sites
gadjet 11 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 It was YOU! What was me? Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 Raise pre-flop. What was the Buy-in? This is an easy call, though. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 Raise pre-flop. What was the Buy-in? This is an easy call, though.no it's not.not at all.not against me in BB.BB has to suck pretty bad for this to be an easy call, imo Link to post Share on other sites
UncleHoot 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 What was me?You were the dumbass that pushed me into this decision! How else would you know if he never showed?It was a joke. Link to post Share on other sites
gadjet 11 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 You were the dumbass that pushed me into this decision! How else would you know if he never showed?It was a joke.If you folded it was me...If you called and I won it was me...If you called and won it definately wasn't me... just kidding, it wasn't me because I don't play 10 person SnG's...EDIT: oh you were joking that it was me... I thought you meant the whole thread was one big joke... Link to post Share on other sites
Gallo 1 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 no it's not.not at all.not against me in BB.BB has to suck pretty bad for this to be an easy call, imoI agree that BB has to suck pretty bad for this to be an easy call. There are a lot of possible holdings that BB could have that has us beat here. I doubt that BB has a draw, that would be just stupid to push on a draw right now on the bubble. What was the buy-in anyway? If it's low stakes, I'd probably call. Like I said, even if we lose this hand I think we're still in good shape compared to everyone else. Besides, there aren't going to be many times that you hit a flop this hard. I still think that BB has like AA or overplaying top pair.What info do we have on BB anyway? Has he shown down alot of hands? Have they been solid hands? Does he play top pair this hard? Link to post Share on other sites
UncleHoot 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 no it's not.not at all.not against me in BB.BB has to suck pretty bad for this to be an easy call, imoLikewise, not against me. Plus, I would be more likely to play something tricky pre-flop. As stupid as some may think it, I might even check K9, KK, 99, or 44 as BB in this situation, just so that you have absolutely no read on my hand, then if I hit trips, I may break you. Likewise, I may have something like Qd/10d, and I may be assuming that you have only top-pair, meaning if you call, it's about a coin-flip.But I couldn't see this guy doing that. I hadn't seen him slow-play anyone, but perhaps he just didn't want ME to hit MY flush (which I didn't have, but he doesn't know that). Link to post Share on other sites
reedmcneal 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 This is almost completely read dependant. Obvious (but important) factors.If you are up against someone who overplays TP or a flush draw then call.If you think this table is pretty tough, and aren't sure that you can outplay others, call.If you are up against someone who's more rocky, fold.If you are confident you can outplay opponents, fold.If he's tricky and it's hard for you to put him on a hand, shoot yourself for not raising preflop.For those saying it's an easy call, I think you are wrong. When viewing our situations if we call/win (14,500), call/lose (2,500), and simply fold (7,100), I personally might fold, knowing I still easily make the money and have a very good shot at winning. Then again I'm pretty confident in my short-handed play.So how tough do you think the table was, and how well do you play short-handed? Link to post Share on other sites
gadjet 11 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 This is a ridiculous way to play any flopped set, the only hand that I can see the villain playing this way and actually being ahead is K9... and if you fold because you're scared of K9 then play me heads up... you want all the chips in on the flop. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 If you think this table is pretty tough, and aren't sure that you can outplay others, call.I agree with all but this.If we can't outplay table on average, we should fold here and have 7k.This is a ridiculous way to play any flopped set,why?no more ridiculous than jamming with less than K9.Maybe FD +pairAgain, I'll bust you if I'm BB here.well, almost Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 8 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 no it's not.not at all.not against me in BB.BB has to suck pretty bad for this to be an easy call, imoI've never played a S&G in my life where bb was anywhere close to smart enough to make this tough. Link to post Share on other sites
UncleHoot 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 EDIT: oh you were joking that it was me... I thought you meant the whole thread was one big joke...Perhaps it is one big joke, but not for any reasons that were intentional. I just like analyzing plays and getting to the bottom of why I do what I do. Right now, a lot of what I do is probably based on instinct and reads, more than anything else. Yes, it is possible to get reads from online opponents, even though you can't see them twitching. But anyway, there are solid mathematical reasons for making certain decisions, and sometimes it's nice to know the penalty for making a certain decision, even if your gut tells you to do it anyway. In this case, the penalty for folding (after my 3rd edit) is probably not more than $7.50. The pay-off/penalty for calling depends on what your opponent has. It's unknown. Link to post Share on other sites
gadjet 11 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 This is almost completely read dependant. Obvious (but important) factors.If you are up against someone who overplays TP or a flush draw then call.If you think this table is pretty tough, and aren't sure that you can outplay others, call.If you are up against someone who's more rocky, fold.If you are confident you can outplay opponents, fold.If he's tricky and it's hard for you to put him on a hand, shoot yourself for not raising preflop.For those saying it's an easy call, I think you are wrong. When viewing our situations if we call/win (14,500), call/lose (2,500), and simply fold (7,100), I personally might fold, knowing I still easily make the money and have a very good shot at winning. Then again I'm pretty confident in my short-handed play.So how tough do you think the table was, and how well do you play short-handed?RE your fold situations...What hand are you putting a rock on exactly? KK? 99? with no preflop raise when he knows it's heads up? If you are confident you can outplay your opponents you should be able to recognize that you are being outplayed if you fold and you should check your confidence levels and call ... I'm a firm believer in picking better spots... but they don't get much better than this...EDIT: THIS IS A SMALL STAKES SnG... As for your chip counts... the blinds are still low enough that you're far from out of it with 2500 left if you call and lose...Again, I'll bust you if I'm BB here.well, almost No you wouldn't you'd raise preflop... Link to post Share on other sites
Royal_Tour 0 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 Well, it's not like I had K3... But I suppose a suited King could be worth raising PF when folded to. But there had been a lot of stealing going on that the table, so it seemed like an opportunity to slow things down. Oh well, that's hindisight.Anyway, did you mean that you would have pushed after his bet of 400? Or did you mean call (his push)?No dude,but the blinds are worth 400.I'm stealing these, thats why i raise.P.s. Dont slow things down. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 No you wouldn't you'd raise preflop... not necessarily44, K9, Ad9dno, I'd likely check.I'd check 99 a lot.Keep pot small, in pos, no need to tangle with leader.I play very much to cash. Link to post Share on other sites
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