I'm not sure Alvarez should be a dog, however slight. But I do think it's a tossup.
I give Alvarez the edge because he might just be able to wrestle-fuck Connor for 5 rounds. But, I don't know, I kind of agree with, I think it was Kavanagh, in that McGregor's speed and power down below 170 is insane for the first round and a half, and that Diaz's godlike chin allowed him to survive both of those fights early rounds, and that anyone else taking those shots would have fallen.
I think if Alvarez doesn't wrestle-fuck (without catching one) for the first 2 rounds he might get put down. His chin is not anything like Diaz, or even Aldo who got one-shot.
I'm kind of rambling, but I agree that I'd give odds to Alvarez, but I don't see him as a big favorite.