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1st Hand Of A Party $100 +9 Mtt


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#41 copernicus

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Posted 07 March 2006 - 05:29 PM

View Postmacphec, on Tuesday, March 7th, 2006, 4:14 PM, said:

very good points from you and Copernicus. I guess I fall in love with "charging them to draw". Just calling his flop raise would feel like giving him a free card to hit his flush though.Very interesting question about accidently seeing his cards. If I knew exactly what he had then a push is correct, no?The pot would be apprx $935 after his raise and I push for $2725 more obviously giving him $2150 (left in his stack) : $3660 (amt in pot after my push) or less than 2:1 odds. So a push is the only way to price him out if you will.Is this reasoning flawed?
It may "feel" like your giving him a free card, but you really arent. The order of the betting doesnt matter. There is no difference between you betting Pot/3 (to price out a 4.5/1 draw that would be breakeven at Pot/3.5) and him calling, or him betting Pot/3 and you calling. His money is still going in short of what he needs.It may be clearer if you look at yourself in the lead making a defensive bet. Lets say you are leading, and have a flush draw, 4.5:1 against. If you can bet say 1/4 of the pot (giving yourself 5:1 odds if he calls)and that stops him from betting 1/3 of the pot (which would only give you 4:1 odds if you call) then you have induced a +EV situation out of what would have been -EV or a fold.
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#42 mk

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Posted 08 March 2006 - 05:39 AM

Like Copernicus said, if you feel confident in your read of your opponent being on a flush draw, you can often wait for a safe turn and price them out more effectively.But even in this hand, you should be perfectly comfortable getting it all in on the flop. Your opponent is only 33% to win! Why are you saying you wish you'd have folded? Paul Phillips, DN, Matros, Bloch, and many other pros don't think they're good enough to pass up that kind of edge (or even much smaller ones) on the first hand; you probably shouldn't either.

#43 copernicus

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Posted 08 March 2006 - 07:13 AM

View Postmk, on Wednesday, March 8th, 2006, 8:39 AM, said:

Like Copernicus said, if you feel confident in your read of your opponent being on a flush draw, you can often wait for a safe turn and price them out more effectively.But even in this hand, you should be perfectly comfortable getting it all in on the flop.
Here are the equity numbers for pushing on the flop vs the turn:Get in all in on the flop: +1,246 +41%Wait till turn, he's guaranteed to call turn push if no heart +1,656 +55%Wait till turn, he's guaranteed to fold turn push if no heart + 865 +29%Break even probability he has to call a turn push with a blank: .543(IE if he will call a push after a blank turn card 54.3% of the time your equity is 1,246, same as getting it all in preflop, but your risk of busting out has dropped from 33% to 18%)Thats the TC equity. What about prize equity? We know that doubling up doesnt double your prize equity because of prize structure considerations. Lets say that any increase in chips is only 80% effective in increasing your prize equity (and a decrease of less than all of your chips is only 80% effective in reducing your prize equity). (80% is a SWAG, if anyone has a better number, which is really prize structure dependent, let me know). These are the increases in prize equity (its worse than 80% of the TC equity, because busting out still costs you 100% of your prize equity):All in on flop: 21.7%Wait till turn, he calls if a blank: 33.2%Wait till turn, he folds if a blank: 18.5%So the prize equity increase (11.5%) for waiting/calling is almost the same as the TC equity increase (14%), but the cost if he folds to a blank turn is only 3.2% in prize equity, vs 12% in TC equity.That makes it even clearer that waiting till the turn is the better option.
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#44 Footballguru

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Posted 09 March 2006 - 07:30 AM

did it not cross anyone's mind that the villian could have something like A10, A8, AJ, etc... and be trying to define his hand?

#45 copernicus

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Posted 09 March 2006 - 09:34 AM

View PostFootballguru, on Thursday, March 9th, 2006, 10:30 AM, said:

did it not cross anyone's mind that the villian could have something like A10, A8, AJ, etc... and be trying to define his hand?
If I thought he was trying to "define his hand" with a 750 bet into a 435 pot early in a tourney where that is probably 30% or more of his stack then I would instafold, because he'll donate his chips to me when I have the nuts.That would be a horrendous bet on his part. Once it was clarified that the Ah was not on board it was obvious he had the nut flush draw.
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#46 profxavier9

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Posted 09 March 2006 - 10:14 AM

View Postcopernicus, on Wednesday, March 8th, 2006, 7:13 AM, said:

Here are the equity numbers for pushing on the flop vs the turn:Get in all in on the flop: +1,246 +41%Wait till turn, he's guaranteed to call turn push if no heart +1,656 +55%Wait till turn, he's guaranteed to fold turn push if no heart + 865 +29%Break even probability he has to call a turn push with a blank: .543(IE if he will call a push after a blank turn card 54.3% of the time your equity is 1,246, same as getting it all in preflop, but your risk of busting out has dropped from 33% to 18%)Thats the TC equity. What about prize equity? We know that doubling up doesnt double your prize equity because of prize structure considerations. Lets say that any increase in chips is only 80% effective in increasing your prize equity (and a decrease of less than all of your chips is only 80% effective in reducing your prize equity). (80% is a SWAG, if anyone has a better number, which is really prize structure dependent, let me know). These are the increases in prize equity (its worse than 80% of the TC equity, because busting out still costs you 100% of your prize equity):All in on flop: 21.7%Wait till turn, he calls if a blank: 33.2%Wait till turn, he folds if a blank: 18.5%So the prize equity increase (11.5%) for waiting/calling is almost the same as the TC equity increase (14%), but the cost if he folds to a blank turn is only 3.2% in prize equity, vs 12% in TC equity.That makes it even clearer that waiting till the turn is the better option.
god is it me or do all you TAG players over think you hands take your read and go with it. You must not get much sleep at night condjuring up all these complicated quadratic equations. I probably would have mucked a9 from the get go. But i were to have had played them im moving in on the flop first hand people play like donkeys at any buy in online first few hands for that matter no one likes to lose there first hand and plsy like donks to win it. And that guy talking about doubling up bbeing a bad thing well your over tight if it were a deep stack tourny it would be foldable but anything less i doubt it unless i have some seriou notes on the guy.
..ok so what do i do now?..

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#47 mk

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Posted 09 March 2006 - 10:31 AM

View Postprofxavier9, on Thursday, March 9th, 2006, 12:14 PM, said:

god is it me or do all you TAG players over think you hands take your read and go with it. You must not get much sleep at night condjuring up all these complicated quadratic equations. I probably would have mucked a9 from the get go. But i were to have had played them im moving in on the flop first hand people play like donkeys at any buy in online first few hands for that matter no one likes to lose there first hand and plsy like donks to win it. And that guy talking about doubling up bbeing a bad thing well your over tight if it were a deep stack tourny it would be foldable but anything less i doubt it unless i have some seriou notes on the guy.
Lol.

#48 copernicus

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Posted 09 March 2006 - 11:30 AM

View Postprofxavier9, on Thursday, March 9th, 2006, 1:14 PM, said:

god is it me or do all you TAG players over think you hands take your read and go with it. You must not get much sleep at night condjuring up all these complicated quadratic equations. I probably would have mucked a9 from the get go. But i were to have had played them im moving in on the flop first hand people play like donkeys at any buy in online first few hands for that matter no one likes to lose there first hand and plsy like donks to win it. And that guy talking about doubling up bbeing a bad thing well your over tight if it were a deep stack tourny it would be foldable but anything less i doubt it unless i have some seriou notes on the guy.
Sounds like a professor, who doesnt have to take his academics out to the real world. It is thinking about situations like these off line that gives you an advantage when faced with a similar situation in real play.The result of all these "quadratic equations" was very significant imo (and actually not all that difficult to calculate, taking 10 mins with a phone call in between). There are frequent questions about whether its better to push on the flop or wait till a blank hits on the turn.The math here demonstrates a big advantage to waiting. OF course since anyone who isnt you is apparently a donk, Im not surprised you didnt bother thinking more about that and would still push on the flop.
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#49 shpaget

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Posted 09 March 2006 - 12:03 PM

View Postprofxavier9, on Thursday, March 9th, 2006, 11:14 AM, said:

god is it me or do all you TAG players over think you hands take your read and go with it. You must not get much sleep at night condjuring up all these complicated quadratic equations. I probably would have mucked a9 from the get go. But i were to have had played them im moving in on the flop first hand people play like donkeys at any buy in online first few hands for that matter no one likes to lose there first hand and plsy like donks to win it. And that guy talking about doubling up bbeing a bad thing well your over tight if it were a deep stack tourny it would be foldable but anything less i doubt it unless i have some seriou notes on the guy.
Try to understand basic English (and try to type in it too - one word...punctuation).No one on this thread has ever claimed that doubling up is a bad thing.
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."




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