mk, on Wednesday, March 8th, 2006, 8:39 AM, said:
Like Copernicus said, if you feel confident in your read of your opponent being on a flush draw, you can often wait for a safe turn and price them out more effectively.But even in this hand, you should be perfectly comfortable getting it all in on the flop.
Here are the equity numbers for pushing on the flop vs the turn:Get in all in on the flop: +1,246 +41%Wait till turn, he's guaranteed to call turn push if no heart +1,656 +55%Wait till turn, he's guaranteed to fold turn push if no heart + 865 +29%Break even probability he has to call a turn push with a blank: .543(IE if he will call a push after a blank turn card 54.3% of the time your equity is 1,246, same as getting it all in preflop, but your risk of busting out has dropped from 33% to 18%)Thats the TC equity. What about prize equity? We know that doubling up doesnt double your prize equity because of prize structure considerations. Lets say that any increase in chips is only 80% effective in increasing your prize equity (and a decrease of less than all of your chips is only 80% effective in reducing your prize equity). (80% is a SWAG, if anyone has a better number, which is really prize structure dependent, let me know). These are the increases in prize equity (its worse than 80% of the TC equity, because busting out still costs you 100% of your prize equity):All in on flop: 21.7%Wait till turn, he calls if a blank: 33.2%Wait till turn, he folds if a blank: 18.5%So the prize equity increase (11.5%) for waiting/calling is almost the same as the TC equity increase (14%), but the cost if he folds to a blank turn is only 3.2% in prize equity, vs 12% in TC equity.That makes it even clearer that waiting till the turn is the better option.