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1st Hand Of A Party $100 +9 Mtt


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#1 macphec

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Posted 01 March 2006 - 03:31 PM

Folded to me in the CO.Blinds $20 $40I raise w A9s to $100Only Button calls.Flop is A9Q (2 hearts)I lead for $175.Button raises to $750WTF is my play?
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#2 Actuary

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Posted 01 March 2006 - 03:38 PM

push.but I'm no tourney expert.

#3 copernicus

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Posted 01 March 2006 - 06:18 PM

Probably Fold. Yes you may have best hand to an AK or AQ, but you may well be behind also. WI might change my mind if the Ah is not one of the hearts on board. Then he may well be betting on Axh and you are ahead and he killed his own odds with the semi-bluff. In that case I would just call and look to shut him out on a blank turn card.
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#4 macphec

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Posted 01 March 2006 - 06:47 PM

View Postcopernicus, on Wednesday, March 1st, 2006, 6:18 PM, said:

Probably Fold. Yes you may have best hand to an AK or AQ, but you may well be behind also. WI might change my mind if the Ah is not one of the hearts on board. Then he may well be betting on Axh and you are ahead and he killed his own odds with the semi-bluff. In that case I would just call and look to shut him out on a blank turn card.
Ah was not on board
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#5 tightass

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Posted 05 March 2006 - 08:56 AM

I don't think I could fold here. Push all in. Tough decision though considering your buy in! But what do I know.. :club:

#6 GrinderMJ

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Posted 05 March 2006 - 09:30 AM

Copernicus, you really think folding is an option here, the only hand that scares me on this board is 99(unlikely since we have a nine) and aq. I believe a majority of the time both of these hands smooth call this flop and look to check raise the turn to commit the hero to the pot. I would advocate pushing in this spot, and can't really see an argument for folding.

#7 copernicus

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Posted 05 March 2006 - 10:09 AM

View PostGrinderMJ, on Sunday, March 5th, 2006, 12:30 PM, said:

Copernicus, you really think folding is an option here, the only hand that scares me on this board is 99(unlikely since we have a nine) and aq. I believe a majority of the time both of these hands smooth call this flop and look to check raise the turn to commit the hero to the pot. I would advocate pushing in this spot, and can't really see an argument for folding.
I agree its weak/tight play with the Ah on board, and at the table I might not be able to fold.But there are other hands that scare me besides 99 and AQ. He has to have some value to raise into that board, including those hands, AK, QQ. If the Ah were on board there is no reason for me not to believe him, and theres a lot of play ahead with only t100 invested in the pot.However, with the Ah not on board, Aces with the flush draw add too many hands that we are ahead of, and I like pushing.
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#8 astros11ss

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Posted 05 March 2006 - 10:17 AM

i think you have to fold here. this is the first hand of a tournament, you still have a ton of hands to see, and there are a lot of hands he does this with that have you beat while only a few that you can beat. destroying you: aa qq 99 aq others: ak AhJh Jh10h i don't see someone doing this with many other hands than those, although if he was a maniac maybe he had Ah-xh. with this range of hands, i think you have to fold and wait for a better spot, for the most part either you're losing badly or with his flush draw/open ended straight draw, it's a virtual coinflip. if someone is doing this to me with only the nut flush draw, odds are i'm going to take his chips pretty quickly anyway, why not wait for a better read and situation? to me, this is an easy fold, i'd love to hear someone argue for why you would push.

#9 tallytownFSU

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Posted 05 March 2006 - 01:02 PM

Yes. I have to agree with everyone else...You definately should fold here. With quite a bit of play left in this tournament, you don't need to be putting your life on the line on marginal hands. The only way you are ahead here is if he made a marginal button call with AJ. He doesn't have AK because if he did, he most likely would've re-raised on the button. So the only way you are ahead is if he had AJ. But he most likely would flat call with AQo or 99. In which case you are dominated. So, the best possible play? fold.
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#10 GrinderMJ

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Posted 05 March 2006 - 02:37 PM

I don't mind folding but I think you guys are strongly underestimating the times that villian has ax no heart qx no heart or a bluff

#11 astros11ss

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Posted 05 March 2006 - 02:51 PM

View PostGrinderMJ, on Sunday, March 5th, 2006, 2:37 PM, said:

I don't mind folding but I think you guys are strongly underestimating the times that villian has ax no heart qx no heart or a bluff
i think you're probably right (at least for me), but grinder, do you think that the villian will have one of those hands often enough to make this play profitable?

#12 GrinderMJ

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Posted 05 March 2006 - 03:45 PM

View Postastros11ss, on Monday, March 6th, 2006, 3:51 AM, said:

i think you're probably right (at least for me), but grinder, do you think that the villian will have one of those hands often enough to make this play profitable?
Another thing to take into consideration here, I think people are looking at the 100 dollar buy in and thinking, there is no way this is a bluff, this guy has something. Granted a majority of the time he does have something here, there are a TON of bad players in the 100's on party. I've played quite a few since the start of their new structure, and I'm never folding this. The only hands that scare me are aq and 99. AA reraises preflop majority of the time plus there are 2 aces gone so this is very unlikely. QQ reraises almost every time in this spot, I'd say 90% of the time. The biggest hands to fear are obviously aq and 99 which would both most likely smooth call this button. What makes me advocate pushing is his raise is so big in relation to the size of your bet, and although a set is likely, I see this play all the time with any ace, q9 or even pure bluff. For those that said it's the first hand, that should never matter, if you think you have the best of it, push. If you lose the first hand, is it any different than if you lose on the bubble?

#13 astros11ss

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Posted 05 March 2006 - 04:08 PM

View PostGrinderMJ, on Sunday, March 5th, 2006, 3:45 PM, said:

Another thing to take into consideration here, I think people are looking at the 100 dollar buy in and thinking, there is no way this is a bluff, this guy has something. Granted a majority of the time he does have something here, there are a TON of bad players in the 100's on party. I've played quite a few since the start of their new structure, and I'm never folding this. The only hands that scare me are aq and 99. AA reraises preflop majority of the time plus there are 2 aces gone so this is very unlikely. QQ reraises almost every time in this spot, I'd say 90% of the time. The biggest hands to fear are obviously aq and 99 which would both most likely smooth call this button. What makes me advocate pushing is his raise is so big in relation to the size of your bet, and although a set is likely, I see this play all the time with any ace, q9 or even pure bluff. For those that said it's the first hand, that should never matter, if you think you have the best of it, push. If you lose the first hand, is it any different than if you lose on the bubble?
i think you're right about aa and qq being highly unlikely, the three hands that i think are most likely are 99, aq, and Jh10h, in that order. we're destroyed by two and a coinflip with the third, and all three are the kind of hand the villain would make this reraise with. as far as the $100 buy-in, that wasn't a factor in anything i said; there are terrible players all over party and i'm fully aware of how many fish enter even $100 tournaments. lastly, i only brought up it being the first hand to point out that you have no read on your opponent and thus have no clue whether he's bluffing or has it. i would rather not be guessing like this for all my stack on the first hand.

#14 iggymcfly

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Posted 06 March 2006 - 01:08 AM

The thing about it being the first hand is that a lot of people will think the early players are all shit and will therefore not give you credit for much of a hand, thinking they can get paid off with AK or AQ. Really, I can't imagine how this is a fold; I think you're probably up against a draw if anything. I can't remember exactly how many chips would be in a MTT at this level, (3000? 5000?), but I'd probably be reraising the flop and then pushing a safe turn.
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#15 mk

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Posted 06 March 2006 - 06:33 AM

View Postastros11ss, on Sunday, March 5th, 2006, 6:08 PM, said:

i think you're right about aa and qq being highly unlikely, the three hands that i think are most likely are 99, aq, and Jh10h, in that order. we're destroyed by two and a coinflip with the third, and all three are the kind of hand the villain would make this reraise with. as far as the $100 buy-in, that wasn't a factor in anything i said; there are terrible players all over party and i'm fully aware of how many fish enter even $100 tournaments. lastly, i only brought up it being the first hand to point out that you have no read on your opponent and thus have no clue whether he's bluffing or has it. i would rather not be guessing like this for all my stack on the first hand.
It's important to not assign villain a tiny range that connects perfectly with the board! Lol!Honestly, you'll see people make this play with a lot of Q's, Ax, 88-22. Villain's range definitely includes AJ-A2. I wouldn't be surprised at all to jam and see villain call with Ax.I'm getting it all in 1000% of the time in this situation. If he's brave enough to flat call preflop with QQ or AA, then I tip my hat to him and move on to the next tourney.For those of us who've worked out a lot of math in regard to combinations and ranges, we know inherently how unlikely it is that he has a hand that beats us. There are only 6 ways to make AQ, 1 way to make AA, 3 ways to make QQ, 1 way to make 99. That's 11 combinations we're behind. Yes, we're a slight dog to a pair and a flush draw or an open ended straight flush draw, but those holding are also improbable. By comparison, there are 8 ways each to make AJ, AT, A8-A2. That's 72 combinations.Edit: I forgot we have a 9 as well, so that lowers the number of combinations we're way behind to 11 from 13.

#16 astros11ss

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Posted 06 March 2006 - 09:23 AM

View Postmk, on Monday, March 6th, 2006, 6:33 AM, said:

It's important to not assign villain a tiny range that connects perfectly with the board! Lol!Honestly, you'll see people make this play with a lot of Q's, Ax, 88-22. Villain's range definitely includes AJ-A2. I wouldn't be surprised at all to jam and see villain call with Ax.I'm getting it all in 1000% of the time in this situation. If he's brave enough to flat call preflop with QQ or AA, then I tip my hat to him and move on to the next tourney.For those of us who've worked out a lot of math in regard to combinations and ranges, we know inherently how unlikely it is that he has a hand that beats us. There are only 6 ways to make AQ, 1 way to make AA, 3 ways to make QQ, 3 ways to make 99. That's 13 combinations we're behind. Yes, we're a slight dog to a pair and a flush draw or an open ended straight flush draw, but those holding are also improbable. By comparison, there are 8 ways each to make AJ, AT, A8-A2. That's 72 combinations.
since this is the first hand of the tournament, you have absolutely no read on your opponent. i don't go into tournaments thinking "all my opponents are donks, i'm not going to respect their raises." when someone raises like this, my immediate reaction is not to look them up because they're a donk and their range is wide. rather, i'll fold and wait for a better hand and read. if you look at online mtts as "well, i can take chances early and if i bust, whatever i'll just join the next one" then i can see this as being a pretty easy call. however, to me, tournaments are all about survival, and my idea of surviving isn't playing a guessing game on whether my opponent is solid or a donk. also, for what its worth, i think assigning someone the range of "a lot of Q's, Ax, 88-22. Villain's range definitely includes AJ-A2. I wouldn't be surprised at all to jam and see villain call with Ax" is somewhat suicidal when you haven't seen the villain play a hand yet. however, with all that said, you made some very good points and really made me think... maybe my tournament game is too tight and i need to rethink some of it. i would love more responses on this subject.

#17 Mercury69

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Posted 06 March 2006 - 10:08 AM

While folding is an option, it's a pussy option. you have two pair and the other guy is drawing to a flush, most likey. It's extremely unlikey he has pocket 9's or A's.I say push it real good.
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#18 gobears

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Posted 06 March 2006 - 10:21 AM

I would have to push here; especially with the A not being a heart.Preflop, AA should raise and QQ should also. Since two of the 9's are out, I would discount 99.Only AQ kills us otherwise. Smooth call and then overbet reads like a semi-bluff to me on that board - I put him on sort of straight/flush draw with Jh10h beig optimal for villain. There are way more hands that we are ahead of then behind; in the long run if you pushed everytime, you'd be way ahead in tournament equity IMHO.
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#19 shpaget

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Posted 06 March 2006 - 10:21 AM

Only an idiot goes broke with anything other than AA on the first hand of a tournament.There's no value...no point.MOST people are playing tight and MOST people are raising big on strength.There is nothing wrong with folding here at all...if he's bluffing, good for him...he'll bluff again.AQ, 99 and QQ (yes, I give QQ a lot more credit here than most) are too likely.What is the starting chipstack here? 3000? 5000? If it's 1500 you definitely fold.5000+...you may reraise and see what he does.3000 - a call could be argued, but being out of position I don't see the point...unless a 9 hits the turn you're no further ahead as far as gathering information on his hand. You check and he bets, what have you learned? You bet half your remaining chips, why didn't you just reraise the flop? Yes, a turn will determine if AhJh or AhTh or JhTh are ahead yet, but you have no way of knowing if those are his holdings if a blank turn comes without a significant turn bet the practically commits you anyway.His raise should be enough information and you have to decide if you believe him or not...there's no point in assuming he's lying...contrary to popular belief, doubling up on the first hand of a tournament is not nearly as much of an advantage as people think. He's either kicking your ass or has a huge draw.Going broke on the first hand of the tournament is the same as going broke on the bubble.
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#20 mk

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Posted 06 March 2006 - 10:34 AM

View Postastros11ss, on Monday, March 6th, 2006, 11:23 AM, said:

also, for what its worth, i think assigning someone the range of "a lot of Q's, Ax, 88-22. Villain's range definitely includes AJ-A2. I wouldn't be surprised at all to jam and see villain call with Ax" is somewhat suicidal when you haven't seen the villain play a hand yet.
I don't think it's suicidal because I've played a few hundred thousand tournament hands, and I know what people in general are willing to flat call preflop raises with. You can make an awful lot of reasonable assumptions based on the preflop play alone.Something else to note in this hand is that it's an excellent board for villain to try a semi bluff due to the ace. He knows that unless you hold an ace, a set, or a four flush, you aren't gonna be too thrilled with your hand. If I held something like 88 in his spot, I might raise here as well, knowing that I could easily move you off a hand like JJ, TT, or maybe even KK.

View Postshpaget, on Monday, March 6th, 2006, 12:21 PM, said:

Only an idiot goes broke with anything other than AA on the first hand of a tournament.There's no value...no point.
Are you high? No value, aside from the fact that you can double your equity before almost ANYONE else has, making you a huge favorite to double up again.But yeah, there's probably no value in that. What???You realize that you're saying if you held KK and flopped a set on the first hand, you wouldn't be willing to go broke. You been hittin the T.J. pipe?




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