PaulFisher

While this is good enough for estimating when playing poker, I should point out that the math here is wrong.Your way: 18/46.5 = 0.38709677The right way: 9/47 + 9/46 = 0.38714154The difference is easy to explain. To keep with the 9-out example, if you have a function like 9/x (where x=number of cards left in the deck), we notice that the first derivative is negative (-9/x^2) and the second derivative is positive (18/x^3), which means that this function is asymptotically approaching its limit (zero).In simple terms this means that as you decrease x (as there are fewer cards left in the deck

You're assuming that calling on the flop means that you will for sure see the river. When you call a bet on the river, you're paying to see one more card, not two, unless it's an all-in call or bet.If you were getting what you just described as the correct odds to call on a flush draw on the flop and the turn didn't help you, you might have to call another bet to see the river. And if you're playing limit, the turn bet is going to cost you more.In short, I agree with the anonymous poster that you quoted: you're paying too much to hit your flushes.And, it looks like in the time that I took to