Donk Bluffing A Draw The Whole Way

[CoranMoran 0]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comHero (BB) ($201.60)UTG ($257.50)MP ($115.30)CO ($410.35)Button ($100.10)SB ($404.55)Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, 71 fold, MP bets $3, 2 folds, SB calls $2.50, Hero calls $2Flop: ($10.20) 10, 2, 9(3 players)SB checks, Hero bets $4.80, MP raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero calls $5.20Turn: ($30.20) 10(2 players)Hero bets $12, MP calls $12River: ($54.20) A(2 players)Hero bets $22.30........Logic:I'm pleased with the flop and will be seeing the turn.I could check in hopes of keeping everyone around for a bigger payout if I hit.But I choose to play more aggressively to eliminate better hands.I feel Ace Highs and underpairs may have to fold to my funky flop bet.If I give him the benefit of the doubt, Villain's raise means an overpair.Though it's possible he could just have a couple of overs on a draw.I like the turn card a lot.It may take my out count from 8 to 15.But it is also almost surely a card that will slow down my opponent.My funky flop bet probably represented the T.So now even an overpair must be worried.I think I have two options here.I can check hoping for a scared check behind.In which case I can get away from my hand if I miss the river without spending any more dimes.But I decide to bet again.My reasoning is that I really don't think I get raised here by the overpair, so I'm setting my own price to play on.And with the board now paired, I may have some more fold equity against the overcard draws.Sadly, I miss the river.But it's not all bad news.My flop and turn presumably eliminated missed Ace-High hands (AK, AQ, AJ).And none of the Villains's overcard draws connected.My read is that Villain must have disliked both the turn and the river cards.I put him on one of the following hands: KK, QQ, JJ, KQ, KJ.While I hope he hasn't been playing with a T or the nut spade draw.Knowing I lose to everything at showdown, and hoping that my constant aggression and scary board could scare away a better hand, I bluff once more.How do you assess my reasoning here?Do my bets make any sense? Am i just spewing?Based on Villain's actions, what are my chances of getting a river fold?Please advise.As always, with strong player reads everything becomes simple.So to keep things interesting, please assume no reads going into the hand.--CM

[Mills 0]

I dont mind semi bluffing into wet board on the flop, but I think the turn is a c/f. If he does indeed have an overpair hes never folding it when you bet, and if he does has JJ, you have dirty outs..The Ace may get you a fold in this spot sometimes, but unless you have something like ace high spades, its a little hard to give you credit given your line.

[rrumsey 0]

why did you call a raise on the flop? and what kinda range are you putting him on the turn?i actually like the river bluff a lot tbh, bc if he can peel at all somewhat light-ish then its a great spot to bluff bc the turn improves the lower parts of his flop peeling range a little bit, aka he could have picked up a club draw a decent amount or have spade draws, therefor his range on the river is a lot weaker. so i like it. and it is a good scare card.

[CoranMoran 0]

why did you call a raise on the flop? and what kinda range are you putting him on the turn?

Are you suggesting bet-folding to the min-raise?That seems like the worst of all options.

but I think the turn is a c/f

you don't think we have enough outs to see the river?--cm

[BaseJester 1]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comHero (BB) ($201.60)UTG ($257.50)MP ($115.30)CO ($410.35)Button ($100.10)SB ($404.55)Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, 71 fold, MP bets $3, 2 folds, SB calls $2.50, Hero calls $2Flop: ($10.20) 10, 2, 9(3 players)SB checks, Hero bets $4.80, MP raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero calls $5.20Turn: ($30.20) 10(2 players)Hero bets $12, MP calls $12

On the turn be sure that your action asserts, "I have a 10. Pay up, bitch" not "I can haz rivers 4 cheap?" I like your logic of putting pressure on an overpair. I think its even more convincing with a larger turn bet or a check/raise.

[fighter 4]

Whenever I see bet sizing less then 1/2 pot and it is not a super dry board like AAx rainbow or K72 rainbow, I raise it close to 100%. I seen a lot of regs who do the same thing too as it is usually a bad player with a hand that isn't strong enough to c/c a normal bet but wouldn't mind paying that much. This sort of flop gets donk bet on alot since heaps of draws are out there and as such it doesn't get cbet on often(since people don't fold often). So if you have a hand leading ensures that a bad card like Jack of spades don't come for free. However there is next to no chance that you would lead a set on this flop for less then half pot. With so many draws giving the villain immediate odds to suck out on you just wouldn't happen, so you have most often a draw and occasionally 9x,88-33,T7,TJ,Q without reads to the alternative and leveling. The fact he basically min raised flop says to me that he is more likely to be pure bluffing or weak draws then JJ-AA or other value hands. On turn, your hand still looks weak as hell, but you are giving the immediate odds for someone to draw to their flush. Since you b/c the flop, some regs get gun shy since they don't have a hand yet and even though your most likely holding is a weak hand like 9x, and flush draws, they don't know if you will fold it since only fish really take this sort of path and fish don't fold. Just look at this hand With an unknown amount of fold equity, some people would just take the awesome odds instead of getting themselves into an awkward river situation like above. You also can't have Ten X in this spot because with 2 flush draws and a straight draw, no way you would lead that weak now that you have trips. So on the river, you bet half pot. I think in this situation you are representing Axcc or Axss and nothing else really. If you were weak value betting before with 9x why wouldn't you keep doing that on the river. So you have a missed flush or an improved hand. If he had a hand like Kx then he might have stumbled upon a really cool bluff catching spot. If the villain knew that you were a semi thinking though, you have telegraphed the perfect river bluff shove. The strongest hand you can have on the river is Ax and with two Tens on the board, it is a very hard call to make that you have to a % of the time because of your capped range. Even if you did call with all your Ax hands, that is only AQ,AJ, you might not have enough combos to make up for all the missed flush draws you are doing this with. Summery. I don't like you bet sizing on flop turn, makes balancing range way too hard or handreading for your villain too easyI like the idea of donking flop and turn.

[KingJames 11]

tl;dr but it looks interesting so I will read this thread when I'm not so hungrytime for pancakes imo

[rrumsey 0]

Are you suggesting bet-folding to the min-raise?That seems like the worst of all options.you don't think we have enough outs to see the river?--cm

at flop play you still havent answered a question: what kinda range are you putting him on? more so given the small sizing. what do you think he wants to happen when he makes that size a raise IP?at turn, im still trying to work a range out otf. i mean if he has outs blocked we may be assuming too many outs. if they are still clean outs then maybe.

[Solar 0]

His line doesn't at all feel like an overpair to me. No way an overpair just min raises that flop bet, which is so often a draw. My two biggest fears on the river are firstly that villain has Axss and is just going to snap the river because we could have a draw or a 9 or JJ or something, and secondly that villain has a set, and just flatted the turn because he now wants you to make that draw or bluff the river. Or maybe he has QT and is worried about AT/KT/Boats, but cant fold trips.I don't like it for a number of reasons. Pre-flop is marginal. Along with many regs I would raise the flop donk to ~$20 with most anything, at which point you pretty much have to give up. Villains don't fold hands to <1/2 pot bets all that often. Lastly if I am to assume no reads then I am 1000% certain that I never fire 3 barrels at the villain OOP with a weak draw.

[fighter 4]

Lastly if I am to assume no reads then I am 1000% certain that I never fire 3 barrels at the villain OOP with a weak draw.

I don't like this. One because it is a mistake to close your mind off to options and Two because there are definitely profitable spots for firing 3barrels read less.