NWNewell

Ok, now who is being difficult? Using good shape as a relative term, meaning good enough shape to continue. And where did I get that idea from... oh, I don't know... You guys feel you are in good enough shape to call the turn. I don't.You continue to say "we are ahead at least some percentage of the time" so it is worth it to call with 4 outs. If we go with your plans, calling a non-heart river / folding a heart river, do you realize you need to be ahead at least 15% of the time? I don't think we are ahead of the villain more than 15% of the time.Our EV looks like this:- Heart Riv

In one breath you say that the turn donk is often a lone heart and he is not folding it to the turn raise. So, you are saying that we are usually behind, and our raise does not have much value. But in a previous post you say it is an easy value/bluff raise. Which is it?I'll concede that we might be in better shape on the turn than the river. But my point is I don't think we are in good shape on the turn either. I don't think we are ahead as often as others seem to think. So, it may cost us some eve because now we can only spit it best. But I think we were already behind to a heart too o

That's where we disagree....At this level, you really think someone is bet/folding the turn with a heart very often. I say no.Do you really think you're too pair was ahead often enough to make any significant difference between the turn and river? I say no.But you probably know your typical opponents better than I do at the sites/stakes you play. Which leads me to my final question: Where are you guys playing? If you are ahead as often as you say you are, I want in!

Follow up question: Do you think you were in better or worse shape on the turn than the river?

Question: What changed on the river?

haha... heads-up preflop... absolutely.8-way preflop not so unthinkable.

For the most part, I agree with this post.They way you originally posted it... I would say you need to fold preflop, fold the flop, and fold the turn. Bluffing that turn is not very convincing in my mind. We don't have the odds to call preflop.And calling a preflop raise, check/calling a queen high flop, then donking out on the turn when a second queen falls just doesn't add up. How often do you really think he has the queen. And is he really going to donk the turn for twice the price with a Jack if he wouldn't do it on the flop? Not very often.I'll r/f and taking the free showdown most o

Depends on how much you think he would push a draw or set. Totally read dependent.If I go straight by the numbers:He either has a set a flush, or the nut flush draw. Unless you think he is a complete and absolute moron that is going to battle with a straight draw or two pair. a Set gives him 7 outs. Nut flush draw gives him 8 outs. A flush gives you only one out.Out of these three possibilities, he is going to have the flush about 46% of the time. But the other 55% of the time he is going to have approximately 7.5 outs, or 30% chance to draw out. This You pot odds to show down will be so

I hate raising the turn.What is he leading the flop with after calling a preflop raise from the BB? He probably either has a Queen or a good flush draw.After our flop raise, what would he be donking into us with on the turn? I doubt he has AQ. What else makes sense? A heart!If he has a heart it is not going to have a lone smallish heart. If he has small heart, then he's got two harts and we were beat on the flop (Axs, 78s, etc).If that Ace helped him, he probably doesn't have a heart and has to be worried about the 4-heart board. He is probably not donkin the turn.I say he has solid hea

Sure it will... most questions are not "Should I jump off a bridge?" Where someone should know why you are telling them "No". And even if they didn't know, maybe you should get off your arrogent, high horse and shed some light on the subject. If they are asking, they are hoping somemore knowledgeable people will help them out and explain, not just use the question to try and prove their superiority (as was obviously the case with your previous two "no value added" posts)Most questions are more like "Why is the sky blue?" If you say, "Because of the sunlight makes it appear blue" You may b

************************On a lighter note... I'm starting to think I was a little too results oreinted with making this conclusion. I looked at some of my hand histories and noticed that three of these such instances that made me question the c/r line were as follows (all three ended up only calling down AK after my c/r):#1 ($3/$6) Hero: AQ Flop: AJTThis first one is pretty scary for the villan, and he could be pretty easilly afraid of two pair of a flopped straight. #2 ($1/$2 SH) Hero: AJ Flop: AQ7The second the villian could easily be very affraid of two pair.#3 ($3/$6) Hero: AQ Flop:

I see (I think). So your thought is that you would rather try to gain some more relaible information about the button, than try to gain less relaible information about UTG+2?If that is your intent, I can see this being a viable option. Only because I don't want to scare UGT+2 way from giving me the info I'm looking for. I want to tell him I have a good hand, but don't want him to be worried about his AK. He won't fold it (if I thought he would lay down TPTK, then it would be great, but it isn't happening often enough for that to be a goal), but may only call it down instead of raising me te

Proud to make your list.....

I don't understand this at all!UGT+2 is the 3-better. If we check the flop, I fully expect him to bet. Just because the button does not raise it, that does not mean UTG+2 doesn't have AK. That doesn't really tell you anything about his hand.How the hell do you know that if you check, and UTG+2 bets, that the button does not raise AJ. I would if I were the button (of course, I wouldn't be coldcalling 3bets so I wouldn't ever be in the buttons position, but anyway). The button sees you check... you could easily have raised TT before the flop and called one more bet and given up to the Ace

I think your BDSD estimate is a bit low. I'm counting it as at least one out.With the KQJ bdsd, you've got a chance to hit a runner, runner striaght 4 different ways. AT, TA, T9, 9T. 4/47 * 4/46 = 0.74% => 0.74% * (4 ways) = 2.9% => ~1.35 outsI can see 3.5-4 outs instead if 4-4.5... but even at ~3.75 outs, I'm going to call if I think that there is even a 25% chance that the turn will not be raised. Becuase our implied odds will go up a lot too, since many people will call that big of a pot on weak draws for one bet.As everyone said, it is kind of up to your read, but if I'm not pret