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Okay-- I am going to a wedding (San Fran) on Thursday so I have to make bets on Wednesday. I do not like this but no other options. I am passsing on NCAA this week since I will not be able to watch the games. Here are the games I like --- feedback is welcomed big time--- as I have to bet tommorrow---UGH! Cincinnati Bengals -1½ -- Rookie Flacco making first start-- Johnson has a lot to prove ---4 units New York Jets -3 (-115) -- Favre debut and the Jets know Pennington's tendencies --- 4 units Pittsburgh Steelers -6½ -- the texans oline can not pass block against the steelers d --- 2 units Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) -- I do not believe Young can handle their defense --- 2 units Arizona Cardinals -2½ -- I like Warner starting and expect Boldin and Fitz to put up a lot of points --- 2 units Denver Broncos -3 -- Oak has spent millions on Walker and safety Wilson??? Cutler will break out this year! - 4 unitslet me know what you think---

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Okay-- I am going to a wedding (San Fran) on Thursday so I have to make bets on Wednesday. I do not like this but no other options. I am passsing on NCAA this week since I will not be able to watch the games. Here are the games I like --- feedback is welcomed big time--- as I have to bet tommorrow---UGH!Cincinnati Bengals -1½ -- Rookie Flacco making first start-- Johnson has a lot to prove ---4 unitsNew York Jets -3 (-115) -- Favre debut and the Jets know Pennington's tendencies --- 4 unitsPittsburgh Steelers -6½ -- the texans oline can not pass block against the steelers d --- 2 unitsJacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) -- I do not believe Young can handle their defense --- 2 unitsArizona Cardinals -2½ -- I like Warner starting and expect Boldin and Fitz to put up a lot of points --- 2 unitsDenver Broncos -3 -- Oak has spent millions on Walker and safety Wilson??? Cutler will break out this year! - 4 unitslet me know what you think---
Save yourself some money and just book with me, because I will be on the other side of almost all of those games.I learn Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Pennington very hard. Those are going to be doubles, probably, assuming my offshores aren't completely unfunded come Sunday.
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Okay-- I am going to a wedding (San Fran) on Thursday so I have to make bets on Wednesday. I do not like this but no other options. I am passsing on NCAA this week since I will not be able to watch the games. Here are the games I like --- feedback is welcomed big time--- as I have to bet tommorrow---UGH! Cincinnati Bengals -1½ -- Rookie Flacco making first start-- Johnson has a lot to prove ---4 units New York Jets -3 (-115) -- Favre debut and the Jets know Pennington's tendencies --- 4 units Pittsburgh Steelers -6½ -- the texans oline can not pass block against the steelers d --- 2 units Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) -- I do not believe Young can handle their defense --- 2 units Arizona Cardinals -2½ -- I like Warner starting and expect Boldin and Fitz to put up a lot of points --- 2 units Denver Broncos -3 -- Oak has spent millions on Walker and safety Wilson??? Cutler will break out this year! - 4 unitslet me know what you think---
Good bets... bet 'em all !
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This is awesome because everything OP says makes sense. So Wang has to bet against all those bets because that's what most people think... It's so crazy to me.Wang - do you ever bet with what you think is going to happen even if it aligns with what the public thinks? Or do you try so heavily to take that thought process away? Like do you actively not think about how you think the game should unfold and instead just think about how you think most people are betting? It's so confusing to me.God that's a confusing sentence and I don't know how to express it more clearly. Sorry.

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Okay-- I am going to a wedding (San Fran) on Thursday so I have to make bets on Wednesday. I do not like this but no other options. I am passsing on NCAA this week since I will not be able to watch the games. Here are the games I like --- feedback is welcomed big time--- as I have to bet tommorrow---UGH! Cincinnati Bengals -1½ -- Rookie Flacco making first start-- Johnson has a lot to prove ---4 units New York Jets -3 (-115) -- Favre debut and the Jets know Pennington's tendencies --- 4 units Pittsburgh Steelers -6½ -- the texans oline can not pass block against the steelers d --- 2 units Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) -- I do not believe Young can handle their defense --- 2 units Arizona Cardinals -2½ -- I like Warner starting and expect Boldin and Fitz to put up a lot of points --- 2 units Denver Broncos -3 -- Oak has spent millions on Walker and safety Wilson??? Cutler will break out this year! - 4 unitslet me know what you think---
Looks like someone needs to read the Sports Gambling 201 thread.Apparently so does Ginobili.
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Apparently so does Ginobili.
I read the thread...I don't understand the whole Contrarian thought process on every issue. Care to answer my questions, or just declare that I haven't read a thread in which you responded to me within said thread?
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I read the thread...I don't understand the whole Contrarian thought process on every issue. Care to answer my questions, or just declare that I haven't read a thread in which you responded to me within said thread?
I was just joshin. I'm not the expert in Contrarianism, just a follower.
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Okay-- I am going to a wedding (San Fran) on Thursday so I have to make bets on Wednesday. I do not like this but no other options. I am passsing on NCAA this week since I will not be able to watch the games. Here are the games I like --- feedback is welcomed big time--- as I have to bet tommorrow---UGH! Cincinnati Bengals -1½ -- Rookie Flacco making first start-- Johnson has a lot to prove ---4 units New York Jets -3 (-115) -- Favre debut and the Jets know Pennington's tendencies --- 4 units Pittsburgh Steelers -6½ -- the texans oline can not pass block against the steelers d --- 2 units Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) -- I do not believe Young can handle their defense --- 2 units Arizona Cardinals -2½ -- I like Warner starting and expect Boldin and Fitz to put up a lot of points --- 2 units Denver Broncos -3 -- Oak has spent millions on Walker and safety Wilson??? Cutler will break out this year! - 4 unitslet me know what you think---
This is awesome because everything OP says makes sense. So Wang has to bet against all those bets because that's what most people think... It's so crazy to me.Wang - do you ever bet with what you think is going to happen even if it aligns with what the public thinks? Or do you try so heavily to take that thought process away? Like do you actively not think about how you think the game should unfold and instead just think about how you think most people are betting? It's so confusing to me.God that's a confusing sentence and I don't know how to express it more clearly. Sorry.
1) Even if everything the OP says makes sense (an assumption I'm wholly unwilling to grant), it still doesn't function as rationale for his selections. It's sneaky because it's totally irrelevant, yet it appears relevant because it is about football. Bookmaker 1: "Hey, who is starting at the tackles for the Texans?"Bookmaker 2: "I don't know. I think Orlando Pace circa 2002 on the left, and Jonathon Ogden circa 2003?"Bookmaker 1: "Sounds good to me. Steelers by a TD."The OP's "insight" is built into the line, people. You think the bookmakers are going to be taken unawares by the relative strengths of the Texans offensive line? Yeesh. The only football insights that are relevant are ones you think are NOT built into the line, or are underaccounted for by the public. If Team A blows Team B out by 4 TDs, but Team B had 4 red zone turnovers, and Team A scored 2 special teams TDs and two TDs from fluky blown coverages, the public is probably going to overvalue Team A, and undervalue Team B if they play again. 2) Tskillz, I definitely think about how the game will play out, but I ignore it when trying to find a play. I couldn't see how o Crimson Tide were going to keep the game with Clemson close. That line seemed really, really short to me. But it seemed short to everyone, and everyone was calling Clemson the lock of the week. Which side do you think I was on? I bet on lines I think look short, but I take the side that looks like it's getting too few points. The books are manipulative, and I trust them. (I actually passed this game, because I wasn't sure if the short line was a function of rampant SEC homerism and hype, and possibly an overreaction to Saban the Great, but I leaned 'Bama before passing.)
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This whole approach is made easier if you assume that the bookmakers have perfect knowledge about the true odds of the outcome of any game, so say a game is going to take place 100,000 times under the exact same conditions, they know the exact average outcome of that game. I know this isn't true (or even possible), but it's close enough to the truth that it makes contrarianism a very valid strategy for sports betting. So if the bookmakers have perfect knowledge, absolutely none of the information you gain with your research is going to be knowledge outside of what they already know. All of the things that you know are already considered when the line for the game is made. They also have a very accurate prediction on what the public majority will bet on each side, making their knowledge all the more useful. So the books have a few options on what to do with their "perfect knowledge." They can set a perfect unexploitable line and just win the juice every week with high variance due to unbalanced betting on each side. (I doubt very much that this is often, if ever, their approach.) They can set a line which equally and perfectly balances the public betting on each side of that line, which would net them the juice every single week with little to no variance. (These two approaches yield the same profits fwiw.) Orrrrr they can find exploitable public tendencies and set a line that will put the majority of the betting on the short side of any given line. This would bring on a bit of variance, but could also substantially raise their profit margin. Now looking at these three logical approaches, one could easily deduce that option one is the least desirable for us (the bettors). If we assume both perfect knowledge and an unexploitable line, sports betting is unbeatable. However, this also would seem to be the least desirable for the books, so we will rule it out. With that said, either of the other two approaches is beatable by betting with the books and their perfect knowledge, and the way to do that is by betting against the public (i.e. contrarianism.) I know that it pains you all to consider the possibility that none of your hours of watching sportscenter or reading sappy sports articles about sports will give you knowledge that the bookmakers don't have, but just think it about it logically. Do you really think that bookmakers who make their living in this mulitbillion dollar industry have less information at their disposal than you do?/rant

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Well tactical Bear you probably know more about this than me but oh well! I made these bets and we will see. I decided not to book with you. I decided not to save you money. I apreciate the time in responding although I do not feel enlightened at all. I am not saying I do not wish future correspondence but to respond to my reasons are wrong because the sportsbook has already factored this in is laughable. That means the sportsbook is never wrong. LOL! They make plenty of mistakes. They are just creating lines to try and I repeat try to get even action. Why do you think the lines constantly change. It has nothing to do with them having any idea of how the game will actually play. If they did the moneline would be never used. I am a novice gambler who would never advise anyone to use my advice but atleast I try to use my understanding of the teams. I do not try to just go against the grain. You system is probably quite profitable ( excluding week one) but to dismiss anyones ideas that are not yours seems foolish. I mean you do not even follow your own system. You should have made a big bet on Alabama but you pass??? The against the grain system says bet Alabama and you pass. It seems like you do not even trust your own system. That should have been an easy win. I will be making these bets. I will probably go 0-6 but will be okay with that. I look forward to your comments afterward I go 0-6. I am sure they will be as constructive as you past oberservations.

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Well tactical Bear you probably know more about this than me but oh well! I made these bets and we will see. I decided not to book with you. I decided not to save you money. I apreciate the time in responding although I do not feel enlightened at all. I am not saying I do not wish future correspondence but to respond to my reasons are wrong because the sportsbook has already factored this in is laughable. That means the sportsbook is never wrong. LOL! They make plenty of mistakes. They are just creating lines to try and I repeat try to get even action. Why do you think the lines constantly change. It has nothing to do with them having any idea of how the game will actually play. If they did the moneline would be never used. I am a novice gambler who would never advise anyone to use my advice but atleast I try to use my understanding of the teams. I do not try to just go against the grain. You system is probably quite profitable ( excluding week one) but to dismiss anyones ideas that are not yours seems foolish. I mean you do not even follow your own system. You should have made a big bet on Alabama but you pass??? The against the grain system says bet Alabama and you pass. It seems like you do not even trust your own system. That should have been an easy win. I will be making these bets. I will probably go 0-6 but will be okay with that. I look forward to your comments afterward I go 0-6. I am sure they will be as constructive as you past oberservations.
I feel bad for criticizing the L-Train's picks earlier. His analysis was pretty good for a Croatian third-grader.EDIT- I don't think I can post in this thread anymore, since looking at "L-Train" posts makes my head hurt. If I decide what kind of moves I'm making this Sunday, will just be immature and open my own competing week-1 NFL thread. I might even have a few plays on teams laying points, you know, so those of you that hate betting underdogs won't feel left out. Green Bay -3 at home vs. the Vikings, anyone?
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I feel bad for criticizing the L-Train's picks earlier. His analysis was pretty good for a Croatian third-grader.EDIT- I don't think I can post in this thread anymore, since looking at "L-Train" posts makes my head hurt. If I decide what kind of moves I'm making this Sunday, will just be immature and open my own competing week-1 NFL thread. I might even have a few plays on teams laying points, you know, so those of you that hate betting underdogs won't feel left out. Green Bay -3 at home vs. the Vikings, anyone?
Wow what an ego! I do not have a problem with you disagreeing with me. I have stated several times I am probably wrong. If 0-6 happens it happens. My point is you just say your wrong! Atleast a third grader from Croatia would be constructive. You just confirmed my original thought. Your ego is hurt that you didn't start the thread. You seem to think your "more intelligent opinion" is correct. I have looked at your previous post and all you do is disagree with people. There is nothing wrong with disgreeing with people but you never state why. Okay I give in!!! I will use your system and use you as public opinion! That means Vikings +3 --- book it I guess it is 0-7 nowPlease feed your ego and start your thread. Don't worry i will not be trespassing on your domain-
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Wow what an ego! I do not have a problem with you disagreeing with me. I have stated several times I am probably wrong. If 0-6 happens it happens. My point is you just say your wrong! Atleast a third grader from Croatia would be constructive. You just confirmed my original thought. Your ego is hurt that you didn't start the thread. You seem to think your "more intelligent opinion" is correct. I have looked at your previous post and all you do is disagree with people. There is nothing wrong with disgreeing with people but you never state why. Okay I give in!!! I will use your system and use you as public opinion! That means Vikings +3 --- book it I guess it is 0-7 nowPlease feed your ego and start your thread. Don't worry i will not be trespassing on your domain-
I am sorry I hurt your feelings. You asked for feedback in the OP, and I gave mine. I think your approach to sports-wagering is flawed, and I told you so. I even gave reasons, like "all that stuff you're saying is already built into the line." I don't know what other kind of analysis you're looking for. I've explained my basic approach here so many times that it would be redundant giving another "contrarianism 101" speech every time somebody fills out his card with super-public favorites. (shrug) I don't know what to tell you. I don't CARE you who pick. It doesn't make me angry or ashamed that you like the Jags or the Steelers or whatever. But if you are going to ask for feeback, and then go on a weird, commaless rant when I offer whatever insight I have, then you're not looking for feedback at all. You're looking for clinking beer-glass and 4-leaf clover emoticons. You can get those over at the Covers forums. That last, bolded line is just weird. I am not public opinion. Everyone is public opinion, and I make up a small, dissenting minority. I can't tell if you're making a joke, or making a bad argument, or what. Anyway, I was just trying to add some levity with the "I am an immature idiot and will start my own thread so fuck YOU" edit.Best of luck with your picks this weekend. That goes for everyone except, I dunno, maybe Hollywood AFD? He seems like the kind of guy I wouldn't like, so fuck him, right?
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I would not bet on the Jets giving up points in Miami. Miami is going to be super pumped to get win #1 out of the way early this year......and everyone knows Pennington's tendency.....he tends to throw the ball as hard as 10 year old girl. somehow it still gets there.

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Save yourself some money and just book with me, because I will be on the other side of almost all of those games.I learn Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Pennington very hard. Those are going to be doubles, probably, assuming my offshores aren't completely unfunded come Sunday.
well I need the luck--- that is why I honestly asked for feedback. your above response is my point. You are basically saying good luck with those and i would be glad to take your money. I tried to respond look for constructive feedback bt you did not ever offer any. I do not see why you have would make such a broad statement without any reasioning. I posted because someone would know more about certain games then me. After such information I would possibly reconsider. You just say wrong, book with me! My games only have one game in line with public opinion-- Jets -3 -115. Your system seems to only work closer to saturday. So how can you be sure the public agrees with me. I would truly be interested in this. I am sure I am wrong on some games so my post was to correct my initial thoughts. As I stated I can not wait till Saturday for lack of internet access. And I was purely joking about Minnesota +3 but of course that will/would be the only game i would have gotten-- lol
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I would not bet on the Jets giving up points in Miami. Miami is going to be super pumped to get win #1 out of the way early this year......and everyone knows Pennington's tendency.....he tends to throw the ball as hard as 10 year old girl. somehow it still gets there.
tatical bear -- that was the feedback i was looking for--- Thanks CraneBrainunfortunately, bets have already been made--- will have to just keep fingers crossed fortunately, it will not break me to lose but all losing hurts ---
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well I need the luck--- that is why I honestly asked for feedback. your above response is my point. You are basically saying good luck with those and i would be glad to take your money. I tried to respond look for constructive feedback bt you did not ever offer any. I do not see why you have would make such a broad statement without any reasioning. I posted because someone would know more about certain games then me. After such information I would possibly reconsider. You just say wrong, book with me! My games only have one game in line with public opinion-- Jets +3 -115. Your system seems to only work closer to saturday. So how can you be sure the public agrees with me. I would truly be interested in this. I am sure I am wrong on some games so my post was to correct my initial thoughts. As I stated I can not wait till Saturday for lack of internet access. And I was purely joking about Minnesota +3 but of course that will/would be the only game i would have gotten-- lol
I was making a joke about saving money on the juice. If we like the opposite sides of games, why would we bother paying -110 or -115 or -105 or whatever when we could just bet with each other. That was the sentiment. I ended up giving all the analysis you're going to get from me. Bengals, Jags, Jets, Steelers, and Broncos are all super-duper-public according to every source I use. Cardinals are only getting about 55% of the action at wagerline, and that's by far the least public favorite you've backed. There. That is how I know the public agrees with you. www.wagerline.com (consensus picks, NFL, etc.)Wang
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tatical bear -- that was the feedback i was looking for--- Thanks CraneBrainunfortunately, bets have already been made--- will have to just keep fingers crossed fortunately, it will not break me to lose but all losing hurts ---
I didnt really give you lots of hard analysis....but I will say I am always wary of road favorites week one. We dont have a great read on the teams yet and week one often has some fluky results. (remember when the bills beat the Patriots like 30 to nothing? the bills went on to do nothing that year and the Pats won the Super Bowl)plus, the home crowd is usually super pumped for week one and that can carry a team. I wouldnt worry too much though.....it is not like you made a horrific bet. The Jets should be favored given the Dolphins performance last year.
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I was making a joke about saving money on the juice. If we like the opposite sides of games, why would we bother paying -110 or -115 or -105 or whatever when we could just bet with each other. That was the sentiment. I ended up giving all the analysis you're going to get from me. Bengals, Jags, Jets, Steelers, and Broncos are all super-duper-public according to every source I use. Cardinals are only getting about 55% of the action at wagerline, and that's by far the least public favorite you've backed. There. That is how I know the public agrees with you. www.wagerline.com (consensus picks, NFL, etc.)Wang
That is an excellent post--- if that could have only been your original response I would have very much appreciated the info. I would have succeeded in getting your opinion while understanding how your system can work so early in the week. I hope your system works this week but only on the "other" games! As for the Jets--- I think CraneBrain is right about pennington. I was kinda blindsided with thinking the jets can exploit him. Hopefully the rookie tackle Long will play like a rookie and Pennington won't have a chance!
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God damn it. I wrote like my longest post in my FCP career and it got buried in comma-less, blocky, ranting, pseudo-English. I am so tilted.Look Ltrain- with every single one of your picks you are betting against the books. You are betting with the public opinion. If that public side wins, the books lose. Like I asked before- Do you really think that whatever analysis and research you are doing is giving you some information that the bookmakers did not have?

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God damn it. I wrote like my longest post in my FCP career and it got buried in comma-less, blocky, ranting, pseudo-English. I am so tilted.Look Ltrain- with every single one of your picks you are betting against the books. You are betting with the public opinion. If that public side wins, the books lose. Like I asked before- Do you really think that whatever analysis and research you are doing is giving you some information that the bookmakers did not have?
no I don't--- look I am not a big time gambler! I only made this thread because I had to make the bets early. I will not have internet access after today. ( only on shared computer ) I see that I am on the wrong end. This was to get a survey for other opinions. Hopefully I can get a few lucky breaks--
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God damn it. I wrote like my longest post in my FCP career and it got buried in comma-less, blocky, ranting, pseudo-English. I am so tilted.Look Ltrain- with every single one of your picks you are betting against the books. You are betting with the public opinion. If that public side wins, the books lose. Like I asked before- Do you really think that whatever analysis and research you are doing is giving you some information that the bookmakers did not have?
You're preaching to the choir. Your analysis was perfectly rational. GrandfatherContrarian gives you his blessings.
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