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Is Poker All Luck?


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Hi there maybe someone can answer this... i'd like to know how others feel.I've been playing poker for about a year now, and generally play live 1-2 NL. Anyhow, I used to think poker was about patience and good play... I won several tournaments and was making a regular cash in flow at the local casino at cash games playing a tight aggressive game.Over the last month I was able to make a healthy 6 000 dollar profit. There were days I would leave down 200 which was my limit for losses. Most days I left up... that is until this week.I had a horrendous 4 days of live poker playing. on day 1, I went down 800 dollars getting rivered and turned each time in all in situations to complete donkey calls. That day I managed to make it all back and then up a 100 making some incredible reads... only to lose it all in 3 hands to a very large loose and crazy maniac big stacked player when I table changed. I chalked it up to bad luck and went back next day. day 2, This day didn't start off too bad, I was up 450. My table got broken, a new player came in. Preflop was raised 10, then 30 by 2 people ahead of me. With AA I raised to 100 dollars. Then the 30 dollar raiser reraised me all in. It was an insta call, but unfortunately his QQ hit a Q and my AA were dead. my very next hand was an AA when I rebought, I played the "i am on tilt" bullshlt and went all in on a raiser who happened to have KK. Amazingly he hit a flush and I didn't! I was pretty pissed off at this point and definitely on tilt.Incredibly my next hand when I came back was KK. Another guy who had 22 called my 40 dollar raise and actually hit a QUAD on the flop. Unfortunately I had flopped full house with the flop being 22K. I thought I was slow playing him, and able to milk him. On the river, I got a bit supicious and let him act and he put me all in. After a few minutes of thinking it over there was no way I was going to fold my Ks full house. so I paid him off. The worst thing was at the casino I play at there is no bad beat jack pot unless it's at least As full of 10s. EVEN more incredible, was that when I had JJ I got called by KK. I have several people who also witnessed this night that my poket AA was cracked 3 more times later on in the night!!! is this fcking possible?!?! all preflopDay 3,I played 15 hours straight of very tight poker and won 150 bucks after going down 800 again. I refused to believe I had bad luck even when I got rivered and made bad lay downs.I was admittedly shaken after taking the horrendous losses for the past two days.At 3 am, I lose my entire bank roll to a guy who seemed to be hitting every single turn and river card. I had two pair A 9, and I bet very aggressively. The guy who ended up beating me hit his poket Js on the river. I mean, what kind of donkey keeps paying to see another card when he knows he beat! I left down again about another 1 grand or so.Day 4,These two guys at the table, I just could not win a hand against them. One in fact even said, with your bad luck i am definitely playing against you. AND SURE ENOUGH, he would hit his runner runner straight and flushes. At this point, everyone thinks I suck at poker and the entire casino thinks I am some big moron. I made all the right plays. A few of the fellow players just told me to go home that day before losing all my money... I did end up going home, only to come back an hour later (thinking I had cleared my head) to lose again.I just could not make any pair on the board, no matter what! Admittedly on day 4 I was playing VERY bad, hoping to hit on the flop calling almost every hand. But even in instances where I hit 2 pair or even in one case a Flush, I would get beat with Full house or a higher 2 pair.Is this possible!!?!?!?After this horrendous week just before christmas, I am in huge doubt about whether skill makes any difference in poker when you can do everything right and still be beaten down by horrible luck and donkey calls. day 5I play a literal family game against my cousins, one of whom is trying to be a pro and another who only plays house games. I couldn't even hit anything on the board against my amateur cousin who won 7 out of 9 friendly tournaments we had (approx 9-10 people). I mean if my "noob" cousin who only plays house games can out play serious players like myself and my other relative I seriously doubt that skill really exists in poker. I ended up financing my cousin's vacation plans today (I only won 1 tournament in the house tournies).OR is it the case I have completely run out of luck. I don't know, I am really wondering if it's worth it to continue playing poker. then again I think most of the pros have even gone bankrupt at one point or another...

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If you really believe poker is all luck...well....you better start getting lucky.....Obviously there is luck involved, but christ,,I;ve seen people sit down and go thru buy in after buy in cause they keep getting cracked(bad luck)...same situations you were in and I keep thinking,,,just change seats or call it a night before you totally implode...cut your losses and come back with a clearer mind another day.

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Sounds more like a bad beat story........Either way, the day you stop using your brain to play poker is the day you turn into the fish that all the others pray on.It seriously comes down to "you can't let this shit get to you"Pick up this book and read it... you need itpoker-mindset.jpgPoker Mindset.. look it up on amazon

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As they say, easy come, easy go. You won 30 buyins in a month, that is some savagely good variance right there.Remember that it's a long run game. It's easy to get on a rush and think you are the best ever and able to leave up a buyin or two every night. But you're also bound to have the terrible nights, it's just the flip side of the good variance that you just experienced.

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At this point, everyone thinks I suck at poker and the entire casino thinks I am some big moron. I made all the right plays. A few of the fellow players just told me to go home that day before losing all my money... I did end up going home, only to come back an hour later (thinking I had cleared my head) to lose again.
This is an inncorrect statement, no matter who you are.
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Dont let that shit get to you man. I have been up a good amount in 1/2 no limit play at the casino. i came to the conclusion that if i dont have atleast 1500 bankroll; i'm not going back. I have mad fishes a my casino too. Hard Rock Hollywood,Florida -Fish Paradise

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Dont let that shit get to you man. I have been up a good amount in 1/2 no limit play at the casino. i came to the conclusion that if i dont have atleast 1500 bankroll; i'm not going back. I have mad fishes a my casino too. Hard Rock Hollywood,Florida -Fish Paradise
1500 seems a little short for 1/2. If the max buy in is $100, you only have 15 BI, which is a little tight, but doable. If the max buy in is more, you're real short. Especially if you plan to buy in for the max, which you should always do when "mad fishes" are at the table.
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I tend to think it's a bit of both, and when you short stacked, the less luck you have...

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Hi there maybe someone can answer this... i'd like to know how others feel.I've been playing poker for about a year now, and generally play live 1-2 NL. Anyhow, I used to think poker was about patience and good play... I won several tournaments and was making a regular cash in flow at the local casino at cash games playing a tight aggressive game.Over the last month I was able to make a healthy 6 000 dollar profit. There were days I would leave down 200 which was my limit for losses. Most days I left up... that is until this week.I had a horrendous 4 days of live poker playing. on day 1, I went down 800 dollars getting rivered and turned each time in all in situations to complete donkey calls. That day I managed to make it all back and then up a 100 making some incredible reads... only to lose it all in 3 hands to a very large loose and crazy maniac big stacked player when I table changed. I chalked it up to bad luck and went back next day. day 2, This day didn't start off too bad, I was up 450. My table got broken, a new player came in. Preflop was raised 10, then 30 by 2 people ahead of me. With AA I raised to 100 dollars. Then the 30 dollar raiser reraised me all in. It was an insta call, but unfortunately his QQ hit a Q and my AA were dead. my very next hand was an AA when I rebought, I played the "i am on tilt" bullshlt and went all in on a raiser who happened to have KK. Amazingly he hit a flush and I didn't! I was pretty pissed off at this point and definitely on tilt.Incredibly my next hand when I came back was KK. Another guy who had 22 called my 40 dollar raise and actually hit a QUAD on the flop. Unfortunately I had flopped full house with the flop being 22K. I thought I was slow playing him, and able to milk him. On the river, I got a bit supicious and let him act and he put me all in. After a few minutes of thinking it over there was no way I was going to fold my Ks full house. so I paid him off. The worst thing was at the casino I play at there is no bad beat jack pot unless it's at least As full of 10s. EVEN more incredible, was that when I had JJ I got called by KK. I have several people who also witnessed this night that my poket AA was cracked 3 more times later on in the night!!! is this fcking possible?!?! all preflopDay 3,I played 15 hours straight of very tight poker and won 150 bucks after going down 800 again. I refused to believe I had bad luck even when I got rivered and made bad lay downs.I was admittedly shaken after taking the horrendous losses for the past two days.At 3 am, I lose my entire bank roll to a guy who seemed to be hitting every single turn and river card. I had two pair A 9, and I bet very aggressively. The guy who ended up beating me hit his poket Js on the river. I mean, what kind of donkey keeps paying to see another card when he knows he beat! I left down again about another 1 grand or so.Day 4,These two guys at the table, I just could not win a hand against them. One in fact even said, with your bad luck i am definitely playing against you. AND SURE ENOUGH, he would hit his runner runner straight and flushes. At this point, everyone thinks I suck at poker and the entire casino thinks I am some big moron. I made all the right plays. A few of the fellow players just told me to go home that day before losing all my money... I did end up going home, only to come back an hour later (thinking I had cleared my head) to lose again.I just could not make any pair on the board, no matter what! Admittedly on day 4 I was playing VERY bad, hoping to hit on the flop calling almost every hand. But even in instances where I hit 2 pair or even in one case a Flush, I would get beat with Full house or a higher 2 pair.Is this possible!!?!?!?After this horrendous week just before christmas, I am in huge doubt about whether skill makes any difference in poker when you can do everything right and still be beaten down by horrible luck and donkey calls. day 5I play a literal family game against my cousins, one of whom is trying to be a pro and another who only plays house games. I couldn't even hit anything on the board against my amateur cousin who won 7 out of 9 friendly tournaments we had (approx 9-10 people). I mean if my "noob" cousin who only plays house games can out play serious players like myself and my other relative I seriously doubt that skill really exists in poker. I ended up financing my cousin's vacation plans today (I only won 1 tournament in the house tournies).OR is it the case I have completely run out of luck. I don't know, I am really wondering if it's worth it to continue playing poker. then again I think most of the pros have even gone bankrupt at one point or another...
your name is LUCKBOXenough said
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well it appears my "variance" is still going the wrong way. I took a breather for 3 days, thought it might be time to test the waters again.I had one guy at a 2-5 table, with a stack about 4 thousand dollars. first hand I had against him, I flopped a straight, he called me all in with 2 pair. Apparently this guy was calling every hand. He paid me off and I was 600 at this point. From that point on, no matter how much I raised it, he was determined to get his money back. I find myself sitting with AA one hand and raise $75. The fcking guy calls me with 88 and hits an 8. flop was actually KK8. I raised 100, and he called. Turn comes K again. He puts me all in. So at this point he's got Ks full of 8s and I've got Ks full of As. So I call. River card = 8. I lost everything. The worst part is for a "bad beat" jackpot at the casino it has to be at least As full of 10s to get the bad beat...I rebuy for 500. This time I get 88. He of course calls with K 7 OS on a 25 dollar raise. Flop comes 9 8 10. I make a healthy 100 dollar raise. HE calls the open ender, misses on the turn. I raise him ALL IN with trip 8s and HE FCKING CALLS and HITS the 6 on the river. WTF IS THIS!!I donnow, I am not liking this "variance." How long does this shltty "variance" last?!?!I think I'll take a break from poker until I am out of debt and play on vacation in Vegas or free rolls for the time being.

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the longrun can be very very long. I believe now for online poker, playing 50,000 hands is considered a small/decent sample size. For me, the hottest I've run was probably over 20,000 hands @ 5/10lhe 6max.Live you see what, 25 hands an hour? Basically, it is possible for a live player to be on a pretty long downswing.However, these are things I just keep in mind. What it all comes down to is can you keep playing your A game while you go through this? If you can, you know that in the long run, all the moves you make that are correct/have positive expectation will make money for you.oh and btw, I don't know how the guy called $75 w/88 unless it went raise reraise etc but on the KK8 hand, i actually check to induce a bluff from him because most of the time, you really won't get much value from worse hands.gluck

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I notice you didn't ask if poker was all luck when you were winning.

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I think I'll take a break from poker until I am out of debt and play on vacation in Vegas or free rolls for the time being.
Dude. Seriously. You are way too emotionally invested and way underrolled if you reached this point. Did I read correctly you bought into a 2/5 table with $300? You are going to get called a lot by people who are overrolled (like the $4k guy) and don't care about a couple hundred bucks here and there if they know they are going to get all your chips when they hit. I learned this lesson the hard way, too.Figure out your bankroll and don't play where you have less than 20 full BIs.
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Figure out your bankroll and don't play where you have less than 20 full BIs.
I agree. The 1/2 is probably where you should stay. You get frustrated getting called by people with open ended but believe it or not some guys can make some sick reads on you the higher you go in stakes, and depending on the money they stand to make if they hit, they will call. You have to adjust to this, keep your bets low. I notice you did a LOT of "ALL IN" action.....maybe that's not the answer. Let them control your game in those moments and practice your reading skills. Nobody will put YOU all in on a draw, just remember. Let them call small bets and not get there. If they hit it, you can still fold and it's not a "bad beat" as much. Don't overvalue your hands before it's a made hand, etc. Some of the best players I konw at the Commerce Casino have a motto "check call". They make a lot of money off fish cause a lot of guys bet like crazy like yourself with top pair, etc.. Don't be that guy. Maybe check fold, maybe check call, don't raise too much, you will probably lose then. Check call is POWERFUL. The point I am making is, play your draws, and also, let people draw to cards (not for free of course). Don't fear them, use them to your advantage and duck out when you know you are beat. Too many times I see guys make huge flop bets when there's a 4 card flush draw out. When flush draw calls (cause the odds are probably there with 2:1 and 50% chance of hitting eh?) the original better gets angry "I was trying to bet you off that".....lol. Well, then check, let the drawer define the value and bet (or check), see a card, when they don't make their flush now raise the ante a bit and make a pot size bet maybe. Only a donkey would call at this point with only 1 card to peel still.....Usually, when I have this type of trouble I start playing tournaments - limits my losses as i can cool down and get my head together, make sure I am still in the game etc. As an amateur, I just expect to make some money or break even. As I lose, I question whether I should be wasting my time with this hobby - it costs me a lot of time, it shouldn't cost money on top of it. Anyway, sorry for your bad luck. Sad to say, poker is mostly luck :-) You just try to keep your feet on the advantage side and hopefully over time you win. I do believe you can make all the right decisions and constantly lose, because that's life. Poker is still gambling. So for you, maybe just a break is the best thing you can do. More than 3 days too =). I have taken 30-60 day breaks before and come back healthy. You gain a new perspective after a break.
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