35 replies to this topic

[TheCinciKid]

I don't have time to play a ton of tournament volume, but I do think I'm +EV most of the time. However, I feel like I finish at the next to last table an inordinate amount of the time. I wonder if I might have problems with my late tournament strategy. Here's an example from tonight.It's the Pokerstars Midnight $22, 740 players started and 90 places payed out. A little over $3k for first. There are 13 players left and I'm somewhere around 5th in chips with about 88k or so. Villain is MP and has me covered by less than 10k, he's been opening a lot of pots lately, but hasn't been called so I don't know what he's opening with. We're currently 6-handed and I'm on the button. Blinds 2k/4k, 200 ante.Villain is MP and raises to 12k, I call on the button with K Q Flop (pot = 31k) Q 7 3 Villain checks, I bet 16k, he check/raises to 44k, I shove, he calls. Does anyone play this hand differently and if so how. I'll reserve comment until after some people have responded.

[rogerwilco]

You're at least 30% to win, either your flush is good (if you hit it) or your pair of Qs is. I don't think he's bluffing with air, but if you put him on a set or KK/AA, can you really fold a turn that doesn't help you with half your stack in the pot already? I think a call would be terrible and a fold would be weak (but possible I guess, villain does look strong here imo). Without knowing any equity numbers I think you played that hand well. You can't be really comfortable with your stack with an effective M of 8, so this looks like an excellent opportunity to get a good shot at the final table.

[simo_8ball]

You played it fine.

[krup24]

std, preflop and flopyou play to win the game

[copernicus]

I play it the way you did against a small stack, but not against a stack that busts me.First, I may very well fold it pre-flop unless I have reason to believe hes very loose. Im probably on a coinflip or a 3:2 dog against an Ace, maybe dominated. With a solid stack you need a good reason to go to war against a covering stack.If I do call, then I would never bet the flop. Ive only got TPSK and a draw, and I want to give the draw a chance to come in. Assuming the turn missed, if he leads with anything 1/2 pot or more I fold it. As played I fold to his check raise. Yes, youre playing to win. That doesnt make suicide any less painless.

[navybuttons]

copernicus, on Wednesday, January 10th, 2007, 8:57 AM, said:

I play it the way you did against a small stack, but not against a stack that busts me.First, I may very well fold it pre-flop unless I have reason to believe hes very loose. Im probably on a coinflip or a 3:2 dog against an Ace, maybe dominated. With a solid stack you need a good reason to go to war against a covering stack.If I do call, then I would never bet the flop. Ive only got TPSK and a draw, and I want to give the draw a chance to come in. Assuming the turn missed, if he leads with anything 1/2 pot or more I fold it. As played I fold to his check raise. Yes, youre playing to win. That doesnt make suicide any less painless.

i like you.i think in this spot i'd much rather call p/f with a hand like 55 or 89s. this is definately the spot in a tournament where i'm trying my best not to get stacked off coming in light. i think it's a pretty easy fold pf.cinci- i don't track my tourney stats but i'm pretty sure that when i get to the final 2 tables i have a high chance of making the final 5. my suggestion is opening a lot of pots against the blinds of the tightest players at the table with any two if i need chips. for me it's time to gamble. what most don't realize is that this type of gambling is way safer than the hand you played. chipping up w/o showdowns is what you want to be doing.if i'm a leader i look to stack off middle stacks w/ mosters in position.

[Highlow16]

I dont mind the call preflop at all. Hes been raising alot of pots so we cant give him credit for a hand everytime. You have position which can hardly be over stated, its huge. Plus we are nearing the FT bubble which most people are afraid to bust. When he checks that flop theres nothing wrong with getting it all in here. He may even muck when you shove over the top on the flop with your three bet. If he has AQ we have 12 outs to beat him, if he has AA we have 14, KK we have 11, QQ or any other set youve got 9. Folding is not an option IMO.

[gobears]

Preflop, I could see folding this or making a call with position. It would depend on my read of the blinds (their stacks, aggressiveness etc.). Basically, I'd be worried about a push that would result in my fold after I've put 12K into the pot.Postflop, I would have to bet that flop after a check by villain. With an M of 10 after your preflop call, I would be more aggressive especially with TPSK and second NFD as backup. Once villain reraises, I'm shoving like you did.

[navybuttons]

Highlow16, on Wednesday, January 10th, 2007, 11:30 AM, said:

I dont mind the call preflop at all. Hes been raising alot of pots so we cant give him credit for a hand everytime. You have position which can hardly be over stated, its huge. Plus we are nearing the FT bubble which most people are afraid to bust. When he checks that flop theres nothing wrong with getting it all in here. He may even muck when you shove over the top on the flop with your three bet. If he has AQ we have 12 outs to beat him, if he has AA we have 14, KK we have 11, QQ or any other set youve got 9. Folding is not an option IMO.

when he check raises what can we beat? at this point i'm not looking to get my money in bad for my tournament life.

[gobears]

navybuttons, on Wednesday, January 10th, 2007, 11:38 AM, said:

when he check raises what can we beat? at this point i'm not looking to get my money in bad for my tournament life.

Pot odds are 1.8-1 since all our chips will go into the middle (we can't just call obviously). We have nine clean flush outs and the three kings are probably good too so assuming 4xouts, we would only need about 1.1-1 to push.At this stage of the tourney, you need to win hands like these to take the top spots. We of course gave ourselves the odds to push by betting the flop but I don't like checking behind since the flop did hit us so well.

[navybuttons]

gobears, on Wednesday, January 10th, 2007, 11:49 AM, said:

Pot odds are 1.8-1 since all our chips will go into the middle (we can't just call obviously). We have nine clean flush outs and the three kings are probably good too so assuming 4xouts, we would only need about 1.1-1 to push.At this stage of the tourney, you need to win hands like these to take the top spots. We of course gave ourselves the odds to push by betting the flop but I don't like checking behind since the flop did hit us so well.

the more i think about it the more i think it's a flip. i still don't like the preflop call, but oh well. one of the things that would drastically affect my decision is the three stacks to my left. if 2/3 is big i'd be more inclined to believe that a shove is okay. if 2/3 are small to medium the shove is worse. in the latter scenario i get us back to 88k in 2 orbits, 3 at the most.and although it's probably moot we have an entire orbit before the blinds so our M is techinically around 9.7 but i think it's slightly better than that from the metagame perspective.

[BWToth]

At first, I thought your play was pretty good, but after thinking about it for a few minutes I decided I had an issue with your bet on the flop. When I first read the hand, and knowing my own play at this stage in a tournament I was thinking, yes, be aggressive with this potentially big hand and bet out after he checks to you. I'm sure with only 15 seconds to think I probably would have done the same.Now though, I feel checking behind on the flop might be a better play for a few reasons. If you do have the best hand right now, there are very few possible scare cards that could come on the turn, (basically one of the 3 aces that isn't a diamond). Even if no diamond comes, or Ace you can confidently call a half the pot sized bet, and see all 5 streets without risking your stack. In addition you can use these two more streets to force your opponent to make decisions/actions and in turn gather more information that will allow you to determine the strength of his hand. Obviously you're hoping for the flush and don't want to put yourself in a situtation where you have to risk all your chips with TPSK.I don't think folding preflop is a profitable move in this situation.

[navybuttons]

BWToth, on Wednesday, January 10th, 2007, 12:48 PM, said:

I don't think folding preflop is a profitable move in this situation.

what about AJ?

[BWToth]

What about it?

[navybuttons]

BWToth, on Wednesday, January 10th, 2007, 2:50 PM, said:

What about it?

do you fold it here?

[copernicus]

I fold AJ to the big stack also, but its a lot closer. AJ isnt dominated as easily as KQ, and given the propensity to play Aces, dominates more hands than KQ.

[simo_8ball]

copernicus, on Wednesday, January 10th, 2007, 4:57 PM, said:

I play it the way you did against a small stack, but not against a stack that busts me.First, I may very well fold it pre-flop unless I have reason to believe hes very loose. Im probably on a coinflip or a 3:2 dog against an Ace, maybe dominated. With a solid stack you need a good reason to go to war against a covering stack.

Read on villain is that he is loose. He has been opening a lot of pots. I think calling with position is the best play here.

copernicus, on Wednesday, January 10th, 2007, 4:57 PM, said:

If I do call, then I would never bet the flop. Ive only got TPSK and a draw, and I want to give the draw a chance to come in.

I don't mind the idea of checking behind on the flop, but betting here is standard. Checking is probably better to gain more from hands we beat.

copernicus, on Wednesday, January 10th, 2007, 4:57 PM, said:

Assuming the turn missed, if he leads with anything 1/2 pot or more I fold it.

That is far too weak tight. If he checks the flop and then bets the turn he could have absolutely anything. Folding TPSK and the K high flush draw there would be very poor.

copernicus, on Wednesday, January 10th, 2007, 4:57 PM, said:

As played I fold to his check raise. Yes, youre playing to win. That doesnt make suicide any less painless.

When he checkraises we are either ahead (he could have Adxd or even the same hand) or we have at least 8 outs (vs. AdAx) and anything up to 14 to win if we are behind. We have $60k left, the pot is $91k (potentially $123k if we assume he never folds when if we hit the turn) and we have to call $28k. We are getting 3.25/1 pot odds and 4.4/1 with implied odds to see the turn (although we wouldn't be able to fold if we missed then anyway, so we may as well shove now). If we shove here with no FE we are getting 2.05/1. We have more than 33% equity against his range. Hell, even against a range of just [ QQ,77,33,AQs ] we have correct odds.Folding to the checkraise is bad.

[copernicus]

All of your responses ignore the fact that you are up against a stack that knocks you out. If you dont avoid confrontations with dominating stacks late in a tourney when all you have is small +EV draws you are killing yourself.

[Willing 2 Die]

how about a freaking update on what the other guy actually had. My guess is a set of queens.I also agree to folding AJ and A10 in this spot.

[simo_8ball]

copernicus, on Thursday, January 11th, 2007, 12:56 AM, said:

All of your responses ignore the fact that you are up against a stack that knocks you out. If you dont avoid confrontations with dominating stacks late in a tourney when all you have is small +EV draws you are killing yourself.

I seriously disagree with this. Almost any +EV situation is worth taking, regardless of tournament life. Here we could even have the best hand. Change KdQd to AdQd and does your opinion change?