15 replies to this topic

[DanielNegreanu]

Just wrote this up and lost connection and didn't save it DOH! Here it is again: 9 handed I have close to 900k blinds 8k-16k 2k ante and raise UTG with KT clubs to 35k. Middle position player calls on a short stack of 350k which surprised me and had me a bit worried he was trapping with AA. The big blind called. Flop is Js 7c 4c and the BB bets 82k. If he checked my plan was to bet 62k then call the shove from the short stack. Instead, I now call and the short stack folds. Turn is a 5s and my plan was to bet 120k when checked to. I felt like he didn't have a set at all and that he would almost never check raise me. If he check raises, I would have vomited and fold but I didn't see it happening at all. Instead, he bets 182k leaving himself 450k behind, and me 600k behind if I call. I decide to call with the intention of bluffing some straight cards (3, 6, or 8) if he checked, and also felt like my King Hi actually might be the best hand, and also that if I caught a K or a T I'd also win the pot. His hand screamed of some kind of combo draw to me, or maybe even a hand like a pair and a flush draw. The river was the 9s completing a backdoor flush and I actually hated that card because it would now be hard for me to genuinely represent anything all that strong. Since the Jack on the flop was a spade, there just isn't many combinations of hands I could call the flop with that ended up backdooring a flush. If a blank hits the river and I'm checked to, I could surely represent an overpair, playing it slow to the river and then looking for value. However, with that scare card, and my table image being one who checks back in spots like that, I worried that he might call me with as little as a pair if I bet. Players have seen me check strong hands in these types of situations when the pots get so big that they represent more than my stack- survival over value is a tournament strategy I definitely subscribe to, so if I bet this river I feared that I'd be so polarized, either an overpair or a missed flush draw, that my opponent was good enough to make the hero call. When he tanked and checked the river I felt like he was giving up. It wasn't an Jack I didn't think. There was a hand I could beat in a showdown: Qc 8c but I couldn't beat a hand like Ac 5c or 8c 5c. I decided to give up and check. I still had 30 big blinds at the next level which is plenty in these things and has me 4/8 at the final table with a fighting chance. He showed 5c 8c so I was pretty unlucky in the hand as he needed a 5, 6, or 8 to win and if a club hits I stack him for sure. I've been doing well and running lucky in high roller events, but will need to win some coinflips at the crucial stages tomorrow at the final table, where I haven't had much luck in these so I'm "due" as they say :-) Anyway, good night all and feel free to discuss my play on the hand and I'll chime on tomorrow.

[Adam Junglen]

I don't think you're getting the implied odds to call the turn. I would also check the river as now all straight draws have turn into one pair and likely won't fold to a bet since tt really looks like you have a flopped fd

[rouliroul]

Hard to tell what's best with 0 info on the BB. Both calling and raising flop is fine I think, but I like shoving turn a lot more than calling, you fold out all the dominating Ax flush draws, most pairs under a J and maybe some of his worst Js.

[evan_]

I liked it a lot but i let the pros discuss strategy . Although imo u cant know for sure if are ahead , (most times you arent) but as always your read was great . I like the check and i dont believe you can extract value on the river .

[Willy Gee]

you had lots of opportunities to lose a lot more. well played imo.

[Adogrich]

That line he took is strong, you haven't shown strength. I check call most rivers with this line and a pair. I think the river check by you was perfect. We stack a lot of chips from poor river bets in this spot, like you said its too polarized. Great hand. Gl!

[DanielNegreanu]

Adam Junglen, on Monday, April 30th, 2012, 5:03 PM, said:

I don't think you're getting the implied odds to call the turn. I would also check the river as now all straight draws have turn into one pair and likely won't fold to a bet since tt really looks like you have a flopped fd

Hmmm I don't think that's true, and being results oriented, obviously since he had a smaller flush draw I'd obviously stack him with a river club. Also the King is a win almost always was my read, and a Ten too. Also, I was going to bluff some other rivers like a Q or an Ace sometimes. I really felt he had what he had. Pretty gross turn! Agreed about the 9s river being a crap card to bluff at. My gut when it hit was like "Don't do it"

[charder30]

I say go for it on the river. His hand looks really weak but almost always better then yours. You can rep a ton of value hands, as Id assume you shove AJ OTR (and also likely have no, or at least very small, raising range on the flop with the shortie behind) . And he has to put you on exactly busted clubs to call.

[DanielNegreanu]

Thanks for posting Charder. I was just too worried about the fact that I'm repping busted flush draw OR a one pair hand. Since he can rule out me having a 7 or a 9, ANY pair he has is the same as a Jack in that spot IMO and I felt like he was good enough to figure out that I'm more likely to have a busted flush draw myself than to be value betting one pair in an already substantial pot.

[charder30]

DanielNegreanu, on Monday, April 30th, 2012, 5:02 PM, said:

Thanks for posting Charder. I was just too worried about the fact that I'm repping busted flush draw OR a one pair hand. Since he can rule out me having a 7 or a 9, ANY pair he has is the same as a Jack in that spot IMO and I felt like he was good enough to figure out that I'm more likely to have a busted flush draw myself than to be value betting one pair in an already substantial pot.

I mean its hard to make sets and two pair, but they are all in your range, as theres no way you should raise the flop with 77 or AJ etc with the short stack behind. And if you think he has a flush draw he has to consider there are less combos of FDs you can have.

[Holdenper]

It's a shame, that you told us what he had...now it's hard, to be objective:)Without any information I guess he could donk the flop with Jx, sets, cdraws, FDs. Idk, if he would fold any of this vs a raise...probablay fold his weaker FDs, and the Jx type hands. But I don't think that raising is better than calling, because you can't force him to fold many stronger hands. (If I think that he can donkbet with 88-TT, 7x, and he would bet-fold, then I raising for sure:) )But I would fold after his turn bet, because I don't think that with this size he would ever bet-fold any Jx (ofc he wouldn't fold any sets). And imo he can't have many combodraw without a pair, because you have the Tc blocker (so he can't have Tc9c, Tc8c, only 9c8c). So best case scenario, that he fold an Acxc.If you can stackoff any rivered smaller flush (9c8c, 8c5c, 5c6c, Qc9c, Qc8c, QcJc, Jc9c, Jc8c), and sets then, maybe you have enough implied odds to call. But sometimes he'll win with highes flushes (AcQc, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac8c), and he can simply fold Jx type hands, if a club hits. He may even herofold a set on a scary river. So I'd say it's pretty close...You need to bluff plenty of the rivers to make the turn call +EV.But I'm not sure, that you can rep much on that river, if you tend to x-back thin value hands like AJ, QQ+

[DerKardinal]

I basicly think that the key problem in this hand is the short stack involved on the flop. I think the only way to change the result is by raising the flop, but that could be a lot of gambling in this spot, because there is the possiblilty that the shortstack could overshove your raise. On the otherside you considered calling his potential shove to your c-bet, so its basically a calculated risk. I don't see the big blind so often do this playwith a really strong hand, because the most really strong hands would either try to squeeze preflop (JJ, 77, 44, AJ (propably) maybe KJ) or are going for the checkraise, in the hope that the shortstack will shove the cbet. The donkbet looks usually weak in this spot. I think the main problem is that you can't really raise in order to keep the pot controlled, but the further problem is that by calling you are giving up the initiative in this pot. With two other players involved on the flop it is hard to rep a very strong hand slowplaying, because hand types like overpaires or sets or a good jack have to protect themselves against a possibly flush or straightdraw (or even an unlcky twopair or those kinds) which is not unlikely against two opponents. By losing the initiative it is really hard to shove the turn, i think. On the river... I can't see a way you can bluff the river, because there is no real hand you can represent. i don't know your opponent if he is capible to make a call for all his chips with just a pair of 5s. But if he is, you're crippled, so checking the river is the safer way.On the bottom line, I think you had no real choice to play the hand any different if you aren't willing to risk a huge amount of your stack in this spot.(sorry for my bad english)

[gdp13]

DanielNegreanu, on Tuesday, May 1st, 2012, 2:02 AM, said:

Thanks for posting Charder. I was just too worried about the fact that I'm repping busted flush draw OR a one pair hand. Since he can rule out me having a 7 or a 9, ANY pair he has is the same as a Jack in that spot IMO and I felt like he was good enough to figure out that I'm more likely to have a busted flush draw myself than to be value betting one pair in an already substantial pot.

This is my first post on here. I've been a member for a while now, but this is the first time I've decided to put my 2 cents in. But I really enjoy talking strategy and am hoping I'll learn a lot by getting more involved.If the player is good enough as you say Daniel, I think any bet on the river is getting called with that 9 falling off. After the river comes you're not representing anything really and he could easily put you on KQ/AK clubs. Plus he's more likely to talk himself into you having that considering how much is in the pot, you have to pretty much shove to get him to fold which looks so fishy in that spot (like you're repping the back door flush). Otherwise the bet is going too small and he'll have to call considering the price. So I think there's no size bet that can get him to fold if he's ANY good. Any AJ or KJ type hands you are probably going to jam the turn as the only thing you are worried about is an unlikely set, but with 2 flush draws on board you are going to protect what you think is the best hand. I think your implied value assessment is almost always correct in that spot, as he's not that likely to have an A high flush draw and lead out. I think he's more likely to check-raise to get it in or check-call the flop rather than lead out. He may hit a straight draw and not put you on the flush (thought unlikely you stack him for that, you can probably still get some extra value as he will keep leading out). As you say I think the combo draw is most likely with the lead out and he's hoping to get it in on the flop, his bets back this up. The only other option you have is shoving the turn and repping a hand like AJ. That's a bit spew though as he's just as likely to lead out with a J7 suited or even 68/36 suited are possible calls before the flop and then you're dead to your flush, but that's just more down to your read. Plus considering what's in the pot plus his pair, straight and flush draw he may even decide to gamble as he has plenty of outs in his opinion (especially if you're sometimes bluffing in that spot). I think the only thing you could do is nit up and fold the turn, but that's not how you win these things and I think that's too "Hellmuth". Left yourself a good stack and if you're patient and get a double up you're perfectly placed, well played Daniel and unlucky.Greg

[holecardsarewild]

DanielNegreanu, on Monday, April 30th, 2012, 4:56 PM, said:

... His hand screamed of some kind of combo draw to me, or maybe even a hand like a pair and a flush draw....

DanielNegreanu, on Monday, April 30th, 2012, 5:40 PM, said:

Hmmm I don't think that's true, and being results oriented, obviously since he had a smaller flush draw I'd obviously stack him with a river club. Also the King is a win almost always was my read, and a Ten too. Also, I was going to bluff some other rivers like a Q or an Ace sometimes. I really felt he had what he had. Pretty gross turn! Agreed about the 9s river being a crap card to bluff at. My gut when it hit was like "Don't do it"

It sounds like, based on your read, you were putting him on exactly the type of hand that's going to call/4-bet-shove on the flop, and then often be crushed by your bigger draw. Is there a reason why you didn't raise the flop and look for that situation? I ask that without breaking down the ranges, with the intent to instead figure out what your thought process was on the hand. Based on your assessment, isn't the best action to get more chips in the pot?

[DanielNegreanu]

holecardsarewild, on Tuesday, May 1st, 2012, 12:04 PM, said:

It sounds like, based on your read, you were putting him on exactly the type of hand that's going to call/4-bet-shove on the flop, and then often be crushed by your bigger draw. Is there a reason why you didn't raise the flop and look for that situation? I ask that without breaking down the ranges, with the intent to instead figure out what your thought process was on the hand. Based on your assessment, isn't the best action to get more chips in the pot?

Essentially because I try to avoid playing huge pots post flop in marginal spots like that...

[Fadyen]

Well when the BB donk bets on the flop I'm confused, what kind of hands can just flat pre-flop in that spot on bet out with that board? Some kind of Jack maybe or exactly what he had, a combo draw. I'm not thinking set as why not check raise that. That makes it too dangerous to raise because a lot of the time you're crushed if he has KJ, AJ etc. but with what's almost always the best flush draw you can't fold so a flat here is the best option. When the turn comes a non-club 5 and he bets out again (just over half the pot I think?) I'm worried. I'm thinking maybe a straight draw came in (although not too likely) or maybe he actually has pocket 6's or 8's or still a decent Jack. There's too much in his range beating me and unless I can get a read on him to tell me otherwise I'm folding here.Having said that it's very easy to say what I would've done sitting at my computer after reading the whole hand. I don't think it's a bad play, just not a great one as you're sitting there hoping for a club or something you can bluff at which can put you in a bad spot. You're the one making descisions here, not him, well played by your opponent I say.