8 replies to this topic

[DonkSlayer]

.50c/.50c NL HE on FCPHero is LP1 with AsJs.UTG +1 limps, MP1 limps, MP2 minraises, Hero calls, UTG + 1 calls, MP1 calls.Flop: 9c9s8d rainbow.UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $1, Hero raises to $3, UTG +1 calls after short pause, MP1 mucks, MP2 calls.Turn Qc.UTG+1 checks. MP2 checks. Hero bets $8. UTG+1 insta-calls. MP2 folds.River 2d.UTG+1 checks. Hero bets $20.Comments please. I decided to bluff after the minraiser bet into the flop so I don't care about whether you like the idea or not.

[KowboyKoop]

I'm not sure I like the bluff on the river after the Q on the turn and him insta-calling. It smells like he may have 10-J for the straight and he might be a little scared to raise with it on a paired board, but at the same time, doesn't want to let it go "because it's a straight." I see a lot of donks play straights/flushes on paired boards like this...just instacall any bet, but never raise themselves. Unless you have certain reads on the player...I might just give up the bluff on the river....but maybe that's just me. If I only put him on two pair..like KQ or something, I might try and bluff the river..as I think you could get him to lay TP down there..

[CobaltBlue]

I think there's very little chance of him laying down on this river (unless you've got a specific read that he regularly folds in this situation). He's not going anywhere with a big pair, Q, 9, or straight. He might fold an 8 or underpair in this spot, but I'm not confident about that. The only hands that he could have that wouldn't beat you are T7 and 76, and you'd win a showdown if you checked.When villains call two bullets, they're extremely likely to call the third.

[AlphaOmega]

-EV everywhere.

[iggymcfly]

I don't mind the river bluff. A lot of times the insta-call means a draw, and I'm kind of thinking that UTG+1 might have a weak pair that picked up a flush draw on the turn. Trying this bluff in the first place seems to be a terrible idea though as you have no appreciable draw and the field you're trying to get to fold is huge. There's way too many things that could go wrong for this bluff to be +EV.

[CobaltBlue]

iggymcfly, on Thursday, March 9th, 2006, 2:55 PM, said:

I don't mind the river bluff. A lot of times the insta-call means a draw, and I'm kind of thinking that UTG+1 might have a weak pair that picked up a flush draw on the turn.

What weak pair with a draw does UTG+1 have? I just can't see it on this board. If he's got a non-pair draw that missed, we should check since we can beat that.Here's the thing...the river is the 2d. That's one of the most harmless cards possible. If he had a hand on the turn, he's calling on the river, because the river changed absolutely nothing.

[DonkSlayer]

CobaltBlue, on Thursday, March 9th, 2006, 4:35 PM, said:

What weak pair with a draw does UTG+1 have? I just can't see it on this board. If he's got a non-pair draw that missed, we should check since we can beat that.Here's the thing...the river is the 2d. That's one of the most harmless cards possible. If he had a hand on the turn, he's calling on the river, because the river changed absolutely nothing.

I put him on A8c on the turn...iggy had it right. We can entertain the idea that UTG +1 is a donk and will call a raise with A8.Although I do understand your points, gents.

[lucky_charmz]

I agree with Cobalt on this one. If he called on the turn he's gonna call on the river. And the 2d makes a bluff on the river almost impossible because it makes for such an awkward bet.

[MasterLJ]

AlphaOmega, on Thursday, March 9th, 2006, 11:27 AM, said:

-EV everywhere.