62 replies to this topic

[mtdesmoines]

CobaltBlue, on Sunday, June 5th, 2011, 3:14 PM, said:

I actually think that donking the flop is the best way to go, though I'm torn between a donk/call and donk/3bet. That said, in the hand, I just called and then started regretting it based on stacks. The turn was the : and checked through (button took a really long time to check), I bet SB's $230 remaining on the : river (with plans to fold to a button raise). Both villains thought for a while and folded.

This is why we raise the flop? There was no KK JJ out there and we could have made mad $.

[CobaltBlue]

mtdesmoines, on Sunday, June 5th, 2011, 9:57 PM, said:

This is why we raise the flop? There was no KK JJ out there and we could have made mad $.

If they're both folding the river, I'm not sure what we would've made a lot of money from.

[BaseJester]

CobaltBlue, on Friday, May 27th, 2011, 4:28 PM, said:

Just for the sake of argument...I think this is the range of hands that button will give us decent action with facing raises...equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 41.671% 41.48% 00.19% 31249459 145877.00 { 8c8h }Hand 1: 58.329% 58.14% 00.19% 43800163 145877.00 { AcAd, AdAh, AdAs, KK, JJ, AdKd, AdQd, AdTd, KdQd, KJs, KdTd, QdTd, Td9d, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd, KJo }

I don't see what you're doing with this range. You're doing a preflop analysis with no board, but limiting the villain to hands with a diamond. When all the money goes in on the flop, the hero is a 2:1 favorite.Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 29,700 games 0.005 secs 5,940,000 games/secBoard: Ks 8d JdDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 64.485% 64.48% 00.00% 19152 0.00 { 8c8h }Hand 1: 35.515% 35.52% 00.00% 10548 0.00 { AcAd, AdAh, AdAs, KK, JJ, AdKd, AdQd, AdTd, KdQd, KJs, KdTd, QdTd, Td9d, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd, KJo }--- 75,341,376 games 0.156 secs 482,957,538 games/secBoard: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 41.671% 41.48% 00.19% 31249459 145877.00 { 8c8h }Hand 1: 58.329% 58.14% 00.19% 43800163 145877.00 { AcAd, AdAh, AdAs, KK, JJ, AdKd, AdQd, AdTd, KdQd, KJs, KdTd, QdTd, Td9d, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd, KJo }---

[trystero]

CobaltBlue, on Monday, June 6th, 2011, 2:22 AM, said:

If they're both folding the river, I'm not sure what we would've made a lot of money from.

Exactly...they would've both folded

[mtdesmoines]

CobaltBlue, on Monday, June 6th, 2011, 1:22 AM, said:

If they're both folding the river, I'm not sure what we would've made a lot of money from.

All the AK hands. All the OESD hands. All the AA hands.QKFlush drawsI mean ... the hands we made money from heavily outnumber the hands we paid off.

[CobaltBlue]

BaseJester, on Monday, June 6th, 2011, 8:05 AM, said:

I don't see what you're doing with this range. You're doing a preflop analysis with no board, but limiting the villain to hands with a diamond.

Edit: Whoa. Did I really run that range pre? Bleh. You're correct.

[KingJames]

mtdesmoines, on Monday, June 6th, 2011, 12:19 PM, said:

All the AK hands. All the OESD hands. All the AA hands.QKFlush drawsI mean ... the hands we made money from heavily outnumber the hands we paid off.

250bb deep severely caps the range in which villain will get all the money in. I believe we're in a -ev spot if all the money goes in on the flopI do think leading the flop is best. Then once we c.c the flop, a turn lead would be awkward, but I might lean toward it some % bc once he gets called in two spots, he's likely giving up with his air and some of his draws.It's an interesting, tough hand, but I don't think c.r or donk/3betting and getting all the money in on the flop is good unless we know he will stack 250bb with AA. Only one way to find out though, right?

[mtdesmoines]

KingJames, on Monday, June 6th, 2011, 2:33 PM, said:

250bb deep severely caps the range in which villain will get all the money in. I believe we're in a -ev spot if all the money goes in on the flopI do think leading the flop is best. Then once we c.c the flop, a turn lead would be awkward, but I might lean toward it some % bc once he gets called in two spots, he's likely giving up with his air and some of his draws.It's an interesting, tough hand, but I don't think c.r or donk/3betting and getting all the money in on the flop is good unless we know he will stack 250bb with AA. Only one way to find out though, right?

"I believe we're in a -ev spot if all the money goes in on the flop" -- yeah, but we are trying to get THEM to make the mistake; trying to make THEM make the -EV move, and the range of hands that will do that is much . Our hand has tremendous value and is only behind a very small percentage of existing hands. I've seen so many players go broke with AK on this board, because they want the money and absolutely convince themselves that every raise here is a flush draw. Pumping this pot on the flop also avoids the "awkward" decisions we face on the turn. I'm just saying ... I don't know that I'm advocating getting it all in on the flop because the bet sizes are so awkward to do it. But I think we profit handsomely long-term by raising the flop bet.

[Ninja Ace]

If they seriously only ever get it in with JJ or KK here thena) you make money in this spot anywayb) LOLIHAS2CARDZALLING

[KingJames]

Ninja Ace, on Monday, June 6th, 2011, 10:35 PM, said:

If they seriously only ever get it in with JJ or KK here thena) you make money in this spot anywayb) LOLIHAS2CARDZALLING

I do believe that a lot of online regs don't get anything in but KK JJ and maybe a royal draw if they don't mind the variance.Yes, we can c.r almost any two and put immense pressure on them bc of the depth. So in this case, we just need to be able to make the fold if we c.r and get 3b, right?Which is why leading is better than c.rIf we lead 3 streets, he can call down with AA, AK and the parts of his range that aren't KK and JJ.

[BaseJester]

KingJames, on Tuesday, June 7th, 2011, 1:11 AM, said:

I do believe that a lot of online regs don't get anything in but KK JJ and maybe a royal draw if they don't mind the variance.Yes, we can c.r almost any two and put immense pressure on them bc of the depth.

The stack-to-pot ratio is about 10:1. Thinking of this as a deep-stack situation is a mistake, IMHO.

[BaseJester]

If we can't get the money in on a draw heavy board and a flopped set and be happy about it, why the **** are we playing this hand?We're not deep enough to quad-mine.

[KingJames]

BaseJester, on Tuesday, June 7th, 2011, 5:38 AM, said:

If we can't get the money in on a draw heavy board and a flopped set and be happy about it, why the **** are we playing this hand?We're not deep enough to quad-mine.

We called preflop bc we were closing action, IP vs a fish and oop vs a player we are deep with and the 3b size was very small. A different board texture gives us a great situation to get it in on. Or if you really believe that the villain will stack a ton of AXdd hands and other combo draws, then yeah, get it in. I personally believe that most of the time we get it in on the flop in a check/raise/3bet/call spot we're going to be against KK and JJ. Maybe a few AKdd and QTdd, and AA if the guy isn't solid, but based on the 3b stat that marchant provided, I don't think he 3bets small with QTdd and T9dd too often. Especially with a "super donk" in the bb, he should almost never 3b light, and look to play pots IP with deeper stacks and with the bb.Deep nl can be pretty nitty. Sometimes a cooler isn't a cooler and being able to correctly analyze your opponents range and get away from a hand where the 2p2 crowd says, get it in no doubt, can add to a winrate. Thinking we have to stack 250bb with bottom set when most villain aren't putting their stack in unless they have us crushed is far more of a mistake than considering this a deep stack spot.

[KingJames]

The disagreement of getting it in is meh.I think the most important thing is that checking the flop was a mistake. We run the risk of it checking through.Donking flop and turn to get value from the draws and two streets from tp hands > c.r and getting it in way behind, flipping vs a combo draws and occasionally crushing AA. Not to mention we really want to play the hand IP vs the bb. Donking put the btn in a spot where he kinda has to play straight forward, which is good for us.I could be way wrong about all of this, but it's just my opinion. /nit

[CobaltBlue]

BaseJester, on Tuesday, June 7th, 2011, 7:38 AM, said:

If we can't get the money in on a draw heavy board and a flopped set and be happy about it, why the **** are we playing this hand?We're not deep enough to quad-mine.

Because we'd be absolutely thrilled if the flop came T8x. This just happened to be one of the textures where I wasn't quite as thrilled to flop a set. I mean, I might even be happier if it was AK8 (since he'd almost always stack off with AK).And yeah, KJ...donking the flop is the way to go. I posted this as a reminder that I need to slow down my actions sometimes and not auto-pilot.

[KingJames]

CobaltBlue, on Tuesday, June 7th, 2011, 9:25 AM, said:

Because we'd be absolutely thrilled if the flop came T8x. This just happened to be one of the textures where I wasn't quite as thrilled to flop a set. I mean, I might even be happier if it was AK8 (since he'd almost always stack off with AK).And yeah, KJ...donking the flop is the way to go. I posted this as a reminder that I need to slow down my actions sometimes and not auto-pilot.

Agreed this is huge, flop texture is so important.On a board where he can have more over pairs and over-cards + fd, we're much happier.

[trystero]

A 25nl reg isn't going ai otf with one pair with these stacks. A 400nl reg most certainly won't

[Stupidhead]

I didn't want to post in this thread because I didn't want to troll and start an e-fight (and Cobalt already knows my thoughts on this hand) but some of the posts in here are rly ridiculous and I don't want inexperienced players following them.To not think about this hand as a deep stack hand is a huge mistake. The 3bet preflop reduces everyones ranges and are not going to be the same as a single raised pot 100 bb's deep. Cobalt said Villain only had a 3bet of 3.3 (keeping in mind AA/KK/AK makes up 2.1%). That doesn't necessarily mean that this guy is only 3betting the top 3.3% of his range, and it might not be super accurate given the sample size, but it's enough to know he's not a 3bet monkey. So to say that there's a ton of hands we can get value from is just wrong. His 3bet polarizes his range to stronger hands. It's so unlikely that he'll ever show up with KJo or J9dd. It's hard to say what his range is tho because his 3bet is so small and he could easily mix in some mediocre hands in position. In terms of what I'd do, I agree with pretty much everything james has said. I also agree with Trystero that reads are so so so important in these types of spots. Because while there are a bunch of players who will only get in KK/JJ there are also a bunch that won't be able to fold AA/AK because they hate folding pairs. But in a vacuum, someone who's playing TAG will generally not want to get in AA/AK on that board.

[KingJames]

I read your and Jesse's thoughts and plagiarized.

[BaseJester]

KingJames, on Thursday, May 26th, 2011, 6:32 PM, said:

And then we can turn a set into a bluff when the Qd hits, and make him fold KK

I'm not sure if you're serious here or not, but this seems like a big risk. You'd have to bet big enough to dissuade the villain from drawing to a full house, but more often than not his hand contains the Kd, and the villain will be willing to put his money in even if he's convinced that he is behind.