When Are You Beating Your Sng Buy- In Level?

[tomvdw 0]

When would you say maybe expressed in ROI % that you are beating your current sng buy-in level and what should be the number of sng's played so that you know it isn't just variance or a lucky streak or something like that?

[Mr. Sparco 2]

When would you say maybe expressed in ROI % that you are beating your current sng buy-in level and what should be the number of sng's played so that you know it isn't just variance or a lucky streak or something like that?

The best thing to do is to calculate the standard deviation of your results so far. If you are more then, say, two standard deviations above zero, you can be fairly certain you are beating the game.If you're not a math whiz: I wrote an article explaining the necessary calculations in the 2+2 Internet Magazine a while ago. Unfortunately, they keep the articles up there for only three months, so it is no longer on-line. PM me with an e-mail address if you want me to send it to you.

[eYank 0]

Would u need to keep detailed statistics of ur finished in order to calculate this?

[Mr. Sparco 2]

Would u need to keep detailed statistics of ur finished in order to calculate this?

The more data the better of course, but if you are willing to make some reasonable approximations then the ROI and the number of SNGs played are enough to get an idea.(That sentence of course screams for more... Just let me scribble down a couple of formulas on the back of an envelope and I'll come back to you later with a simple way to calculate this number. )

[eYank 0]

yeah the only stats I have are from sharkscope, I was just curious

[Mr. Sparco 2]

OK, here we go. Mr. Sparco's formula for SNG succes...Assumptions:

• We have a 9-person SNG which pays 50%, 30% and 20% for the first three places
• The entrance fee is 10% of the money that goes into the prize pool
• The distribution of places that you have finished in is roughly linear. That is, for example: you end in 1st place 10 times more than in 2nd, 20 times more than in 3rd, 30 times more than in 4th, and so on.

The outcome is not very sensitive on the last assumption, so don't worry too much if this does not quite apply to you. A difference in the first two assumptions will of course affect the outcome a bit more, but these numbers are pretty standard for most online SNGs. (Yes, when I have time I will cook up a formula where these numbers can be entered as well.)Okay, so the number you want to calculate is:X = SQRT(N) / SQRT(-1 + 1.347/R + 2.131/R^2)HereN = number of SNGs playedR = ROI as a fraction (so R=0.2 for an ROI of 20%)X is then the number of standard deviations that your results are away from zero. A safe distance to be away from zero is for example X=2, corresponding to the usual "95% confidence interval".That is, if you get an X of 2 or more (and you have played enough so that you have ended in each place at least a few times), you can safely assume that you beat the game. If you're more of a gambler, you can try to move up when X>1, which corresponds roughly to the statistical "68% confidence interval".Note that the formula involves the square root of N. You can use this to calculate how much longer you have to keep up your current ROI to get to a safe X. For example, if your X=0.5 now, you want it to be four times bigger to get to X=2. That means you will have to maintain this ROI for 4*4=16 times as long to be sure you beat the game.Disclaimer: Though I believe this formula to be reliable and use it for my own bankroll management, I will take no responsibility for any financial consequences that its application may lead to...

[Mr. Sparco 2]

By the way, note that a reasonable approximation to the formula is to take only the quadratic term in R, in which case it is well approximated byX = 2/3 * R * SQRT(N)I wouldn't recommend using this formula to decide if you should move up in limits or not, but it might be a useful rule of thumb to see quickly if someone is beating a game or not.

[cdannons 0]

Like the math ideas, calculate varience is the way to go if you're that interested. If you are too lazy for such a thing, keep playing and see if you keep winning. After all, if you calculate the variance and it says you can't be sure you're a winning player, what are you going to do? Play more. So just keep playing more, after you have played a lot (and by a lot i mean A LOT), you can be sure. You can be sure you are a winning player if you are winning.