Postflop Bullet Play

[Acid_Knight 2]

5/10 NL, 9 handedStacks:Hero: 1KSolid Player on button: 3KGood LAG player in MP: $1600Hero is in CO with A A LAG open limps from MP1, Hero raises to $60, button smooth calls, blinds fold and LAG calls.Flop (3 players) $195T 9 5 LAG checks, Hero checks, button bets $200, LAG raises to $500, Hero?Reads: The Hero in the hand has a fairly solid image and has played few hands. The button shares a similar image, but hasn't been at the table with the hero that long yet. The LAG player in EP has shown a willingness to push draws and raise with air, but it is often hard to distinguish when he is pushing a draw or a made hand.

[mtdesmoines 3]

5/10 NL, 9 handedStacks:Hero: 1KSolid Player on button: 3KGood LAG player in MP: $1600Hero is in CO with A A LAG open limps from MP1, Hero raises to $60, button smooth calls, blinds fold and LAG calls.Flop (3 players) $195T 9 5 LAG checks, Hero checks, button bets $200, LAG raises to $500, Hero?Reads: The Hero in the hand has a fairly solid image and has played few hands. The button shares a similar image, but hasn't been at the table with the hero that long yet. The LAG player in EP has shown a willingness to push draws and raise with air, but it is often hard to distinguish when he is pushing a draw or a made hand.

I think I'm willing to lose my money here vs. a potential triple up. Push. gg if one of these clowns has a set.EDIT: I really don't think anyone has a set. LAG might have hit a suited connector ... QJ or hearts or something. We have one of his outs. I think LAG may be drawing and button got cute with QQ. Reads matter here. But I still push. I play AA to the death because I got them a month ago, and won't get them again until September. I already know I'll play them to the death then, too. LAGs do this with JhJx, too.

[AaronHoward 0]

i think this is a fold, but i do think one of them is on a king high flush draw with maybe kq of hearts or something, id say ur up against flush draw and set of 99's

[Acid_Knight 2]

I think I'm willing to lose my money here vs. a potential triple up. Push. gg if one of these clowns has a set.

What are you putting people on if you're pushing here? You have two opponents who have shown a lot of interest in this flop. Also, neither opponent seems to be stupid, they are just good players with differing styles.

[mtdesmoines 3]

What are you putting people on if you're pushing here? You have two opponents who have shown a lot of interest in this flop. Also, neither opponent seems to be stupid, they are just good players with differing styles.

Edited my original. (knew you'd ask).

[David_Nicoson 1]

Wait for a safe turn? If I'm the button, I think I reraise preflop with QQ or JJ. Hmmm.I'm often willing to take one pair all the way against a draw-heavy board, but because there are two players getting aggressive here I suspect one pair is no good against one of them.I'll fold quietly.

[dgostate8 0]

Why did the hero check that flop? If the hero had tossed out a bet of say...150, he'd have a better idea of where he's at in this hand. That being said, I suppose it's pretty easy for MP to have 55 and the button to have OhJh or KhQh. If that's the case, fold and curse at both of them for flopping so big.

[David_Nicoson 1]

The A in the hero's hand is interesting here. We have the backdoor redraw, but more importantly we know we're not up against a hand like A Q with the mistaken impression that he has the flush draw and two live overs. The most likely flush draws are therefore hands with straight outs as well.

[tskillz187 0]

Are you hero? I think checking that flop kind of sucks. We have no idea how strong they are and our hand strength is disguised. I think hero checked to try and get a C/R in and Sklansky says you can't fold if you get action when you were trying to induce action, or something along those lines. I think Sklansky is wrong though.Having the Ah is bad here IMO. It makes it less likely that someone is drawing at the flush and more likely that somebody has a made hand, because of this I reluctantly fold. Lags small raise is so weak it's scary to me, putting him on a hand here is tough, maybe something like 55 or 8Jhh. Other hands would seem to be raisers PF being the first one to enter and all.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Why did the hero check that flop?

The flop was checked because I'm not the Hero here. I'd never check this flop.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Are you hero? I think checking that flop kind of sucks. We have no idea how strong they are and our hand strength is disguised. I think hero checked to try and get a C/R in and Sklansky says you can't fold if you get action when you were trying to induce action, or something along those lines. I think Sklansky is wrong though.Having the Ah is bad here IMO. It makes it less likely that someone is drawing at the flush and more likely that somebody has a made hand, because of this I reluctantly fold. Lags small raise is so weak it's scary to me, putting him on a hand here is tough, maybe something like 55 or 8Jhh. Other hands would seem to be raisers PF being the first one to enter and all.

I really believe that Sklansky is very wrong too in that regard. Just becuase you were going for a check/raise and tried to get tricky, doesn't mean that you can't inadvertantly back into A LOT of information that leads you to believe that your hand is no good.Very good assessment by you and David (Nicoson, not Sklansky ) about the significance of us holding the A and knowing that neither opponent is betting the NFD.

[David_Nicoson 1]

The flop was checked because I'm not the Hero here. I'd never check this flop.

It would make sense if the LAG acted behind him and he was going for a check-raise.

[mtdesmoines 3]

Wait for a safe turn? If I'm the button, I think I reraise preflop with QQ or JJ. Hmmm.I'm often willing to take one pair all the way against a draw-heavy board, but because there are two players getting aggressive here I suspect one pair is no good against one of them.I'll fold quietly.

We can't put the LAG on a set; I think he'd raise UTG with a pair, trying to thin the herd and play heads up with a legit -MIDDLE PAIR - hand. He limps with his drawing hand, trying to trap the field with a gin flop, or, heads up with a raiser that he can close PF action on. Further, I think LAG would smooth call a set, trying to trap a raiser with overs. Lag can't really put you on hearts, raising $60. You've got overs, and he knows it. So I think LAG is drawing. A TAG button probably would dump almost any hand that directly connects with this flop after you raised. A TAG button might smooth call with QQ, hoping to push you out with a non-ace flop and going head to head with the LAG. That's my thinking, but it's (like) Monday.EDIT, oh, and I also thought about the implications of the heart in our hand. I think the interest in this flop tells us that a lot of hearts may lie in hands and we're relatively safe from LAG's heart-connected draw.

[Mercury69 3]

Well, I don't play this high, but...I'm thinking your opps have hit at least a pairLAG = KQh QJh, or Q8h (!)...hey, he's laggy...Rock = JTo, with the J probably being a heartI'd advocate a shove to isolate the lagtard regardless of his range. If the rock wants to play his (most likely) top pair, fine so be it.Worst case scenario: The lagtard has T9o for 2 pair. I doubt either villain has a set, as the betting has been too straight-forward.

[Acid_Knight 2]

We can't put the LAG on a set; I think he'd raise UTG with a pair, trying to thin the herd and play heads up with a legit -MIDDLE PAIR - hand. He limps with his drawing hand, trying to trap the field with a gin flop, or, heads up with a raiser that he can close PF action on. Further, I think LAG would smooth call a set, trying to trap a raiser with overs. Lag can't really put you on hearts, raising $60. You've got overs, and he knows it. So I think LAG is drawing. A TAG button probably would dump almost any hand that directly connects with this flop after you raised. A TAG button might smooth call with QQ, hoping to push you out with a non-ace flop and going head to head with the LAG. That's my thinking, but it's (like) Monday.EDIT, oh, and I also thought about the implications of the heart in our hand. I think the interest in this flop tells us that a lot of hearts may lie in hands and we're relatively safe from LAG's heart-connected draw.

LAG can't have 55 here? That would fit really well. He's not gonna slowplay a set on that board becuase it's so dangerous and he wouldn't want to let 3 people see a turn card. This isn't a limit game and it's really uncommon for anyone to "take one off" in a raised pot with overcards, especially when it'd be unlikely that either overcard is good enough to win you the hand.The TAG button's range is largely made up of middle pairs, like JJ, TT and 99.You also keep talking about the LAG having suited connectors. What about 78hh, QJhh, T9xx. We are in terrible shape against these ranges.If I'm reading correctly, your edit basically says that they both have heart draws and are therefore blocking each other? That seems waaay too optimistic if you ask me.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I doubt either villain has a set, as the betting has been too straight-forward.

I don't understand the reasoning behind this.

[dgostate8 0]

AK, have I ever told you that you're my hero?

[tskillz187 0]

Are you the good LAG player? Cuz I don't like his small C/R much either. And you call yourself LAG so the button doesn't seem like you either. Who pays attention to pots they aren't in? Lame.

[David_Nicoson 1]

We can't put the LAG on a set; I think he'd raise UTG with a pair, trying to thin the herd and play heads up with a legit -MIDDLE PAIR - hand. He limps with his drawing hand, trying to trap the field with a gin flop, or, heads up with a raiser that he can close PF action on. Further, I think LAG would smooth call a set, trying to trap a raiser with overs. Lag can't really put you on hearts, raising $60. You've got overs, and he knows it. So I think LAG is drawing.

That seems logical enough. I'm not inferring as many details about the LAG's tendencies. I expect him to bet and raise often, with either a draw or a big hand. Even when we know he's drawing, almost anything he can have here is going to win 40% of the time.

A TAG button probably would dump almost any hand that directly connects with this flop after you raised. A TAG button might smooth call with QQ, hoping to push you out with a non-ace flop and going head to head with the LAG.

If I'm the button, I'm calling with 55, 99, TT, T9s, JQs, and maybe smaller suited connectors like 56s, 67s, and 78s.

[dgostate8 0]

Are you the good LAG player? Cuz I don't like his small C/R much either.

If LAG has 55, I love that CR. The button is probably not getting away from his hand and if a scare card comes, LAG can fold and not have to worry about having invested everything, but if a card that is likely to have missed the button comes, then he can fire big and take down the pot that he worked so hard to build.

[Acid_Knight 2]

FWIW, I am the LAG player in the pot.

[mtdesmoines 3]

LAG can't have 55 here? That would fit really well. He's not gonna slowplay a set on that board becuase it's so dangerous and he wouldn't want to let 3 people see a turn card. This isn't a limit game and it's really uncommon for anyone to "take one off" in a raised pot with overcards, especially when it'd be unlikely that either overcard is good enough to win you the hand. You're right ... that is the one possible hand I completely disregarded, but don't you think he'd shove any set if this is the way we're thinking about 555? The TAG button's range is largely made up of middle pairs, like JJ, TT and 99. it's QQ ... I believe it. I think we're seeing monsters in the closet here. If TAG has top or middle set, he's going to check and let the LAG do his dirty work for him. That's why we enjoy LAGs at the table. We can use their tendencies. You also keep talking about the LAG having suited connectors. What about 78hh, QJhh, T9xx. We are in terrible shape against these ranges. QJhh is one possibility I already mentioned. But we're ahead, and we have to wonder why the button fired - looks a lot like a TAG-style blocker bet. What's our read on button's reaction to the raise? If I'm reading correctly, your edit basically says that they both have heart draws and are therefore blocking each other? That seems waaay too optimistic if you ask me. Thinking someone hit a set is way too pessimistic. Worst case here is suited connector to the JT or JT for 2 pair. I still ike a push. If we push we might get called by QQ and a draw and hold. And if we hold/are ahead/catch up, we get to collect a nice pot.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Desmoines, I don't mean to be ragging on you so much here, but there are just too many holes in your reasoning IMO.There is no reason to ever shove a set here from the LAG's persepctive. He's almost always way ahead and doesn't want to scare everyone off.Any good TAG player on the button is going to bet a set (or overpair) here becuase the board is so draw heavy. If he checks, the turn card comes off and there are A LOT of turn cards that kill his hand or kill his action if he held a set or an overpair (if it was good). As for letting the LAG do his dirty work, you infer far too much about what LAG means here. LAG means that the player is betting and raising with a wide range of hands. It doesn't mean that he's constantly buffling in spots where he shouldn't and it doesn't mean he's an idiot.The button makes a VERY solid bet at this flop and it is in no way a blocker bet. I think it's a good assertive bet to find out if there might be a better hand out there, or a good assertive bet with a set charging people to draw to straights and flushes.If the LAG's most likely range includes hands that crush us and monster draws (and few other types of hands) then we should be folding becuase we're either way behind or he's got a draw that will likely win >40% of the time on average.Thinking someone hit a set is not pessimistic. It's very realistic based on how the action goes down. Just becuase you get AA, doesn't mean you have to go down with the ship when many signs point to the fact that you're in trouble.

[mtdesmoines 3]

FWIW, I am the LAG player in the pot.

I'm not sure I like your min+-raise. Did we get it all in and see set-set-AA and watch AA catch up on the river?

[sabes99 0]

i just think based on your read, you push right here...if he's going to be trying to push his draws and bluff his money often, there's no way to get away from aces i don't think...if one of them has you beat then they just do