MAXIMA 0 Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 I am hoping someone can help me with the math of poker. This maybe a bit long but rather then asking one or two questions I am going to ask many.A senario:You are in middle position and hold 6 7 . There is one person in front of you and one behind you in late position. The big blind is $40.00. The pot is $380.00The flop:6 Q 8 Would my outs be?Any diamond = 10 outsAny 5 or 9 = 8 outsThe two 6's = 2 outsThe three 7's = 3 outsTotal of 23 outs.The question I have here is am I correct in calculating these outs? Would you consider these two scenarios when calculating outs.I currently have a backdoor flush draw on the flop and another diamond will give me a flush draw.I am working towards a straight draw but need a runner runner to achomplish it.Next, calculating the call.The person in early position bets $190.00.So the math goes like this:$380.00 / $190.00 = 2 to 1There are 47 cards left in the deck of which 23 can help your hand, so the math would go like this.47 card - 23 that can help your hand = 24 unhelpfull cards.24/23 = 1 to 1. However if you multiply your outs by 4 you would have a 96% chance of improving your hand.My understanding of the math is that if the pot odds are greater then the chances of hitting your hand it would be a bad call. So you should fold.By the way if you are wondering where I got my understanding of the math it is from Jennifer Harmond's section in SS2.I have yet to find any articles or any information that can explain the math in a understandable way. At this point you guys are my only hope. If you know of any links that can help me with the math from pre-flop to the river it would be much appreciated.By the way I did try the search function but it was not working for me.Thanks way in advanceMaxima Link to post Share on other sites
Vogelb5 0 Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Your getting ahead of yourself. You can do the math to find out the chances of hitting runner-runner flush and/or straight, but you can't count them as realistic outs yet. Say you put them on AQ for top pair, A kicker. You have 5 outs w/ the remaining 6's and 7's. Approximently 20% to catch by the end of the hand. Then you do the math based on how much he bets. $190 he bets into $380 pot. $190 to pull in a $760 pot. 25% of the pot, 20% to win. Priced out of the hand. I think you add in your bet to the pot then do it.. Link to post Share on other sites
aim786 0 Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 I'll suggest:http://www.tightpoker.com/realistic_odds.htmlhttp://www.tightpoker.com/poker_odds.htmlFirst of all, when you calculate pot odds, you consider the size of the pot (current pot + bets OTHERS have put in)/(the bet you have to call). Therefore, in your example, the pot odds would be:(380+190)/190 = 3 to 1where 380 was the size of the current pot, and 190 was the bet the SB put in, and therefore you have to call 190.To see the odds of improving your hand, you have to count your outs PROPERLY (I'm not flaming you, I just want to emphasize that you are overvaluing your hand like crazy). For simplicity's sake, lets say the only way you win this hand is if you catch a 6 or a 7 on the turn only. There are 5 cards that will help your hand, and 42 that won't. Therefore we get:42/5 = 8.4 to 1The pot is only laying you 3 to 1 to call, so clearly you should fold.A backdoor flush is usually worth 1.5 outs (although in no limit, chasing a BD flush/straight draw can be very costly) and a backdoor straight draw is worth anywhere from 1.5 to .5 outs (or it might be 1 to .5 outs, not sure). We'll estimate that your BD flush draw is worth 1.5 outs, and your BD straight draw is worth about 1 out (again, I'm not sure of this BD straight draw number, but I'm 100% sure it's 1.5 outs or less). We get:(47-7.5)/7.5 = 5.27 to 1Again, the pot is not laying you the proper odds to call, therefore you should fold on the flop.Hope that helped, good luck. Link to post Share on other sites
aim786 0 Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Your getting ahead of yourself. You can do the math to find out the chances of hitting runner-runner flush and/or straight, but you can't count them as realistic outs yet. Say you put them on AQ for top pair, A kicker. You have 5 outs w/ the remaining 6's and 7's. Approximently 20% to catch by the end of the hand. Then you do the math based on how much he bets. $190 he bets into $380 pot. $190 to pull in a $760 pot. 25% of the pot, 20% to win. Priced out of the hand. I think you add in your bet to the pot then do it.. You don't add your bet into the pot and then calculate the odds. Link to post Share on other sites
MAXIMA 0 Posted February 3, 2006 Author Share Posted February 3, 2006 Am I right in understanding if the pot odds are less then the odds of hitting your hand you should fold.For example:47 cards in the deck, six that can help you would give you.(47-6)/6 = 6.8 to 1The post odds are 5 to 1 You should fold. vs.6.8 to 1 to hit your hand and pot odds are 8 to 1 you should call. Link to post Share on other sites
aim786 0 Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Yes, that is correct. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 by the title, i thought you were offering a tutoring service or something. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted February 4, 2006 Share Posted February 4, 2006 if all in pot odds are it, for cash games, but implied odds count too if not all in..and reverse odds and tilt odds.become an Actuary, best way to get this stuff down. Link to post Share on other sites
finztotheleft 0 Posted February 5, 2006 Share Posted February 5, 2006 if all in pot odds are it, for cash games, but implied odds count too if not all in..and reverse odds and tilt odds.become an Actuary, best way to get this stuff down.LOL. I think that would be a LOT of advanced mathmatical work to get some simple concepts Link to post Share on other sites
quadaces 0 Posted February 5, 2006 Share Posted February 5, 2006 How is getting a 4th on the turn an out? An out completes your hand. It doesnt get you closer to your hand. Once you get the on the turn THEN you get more outs! Link to post Share on other sites
rog 0 Posted February 6, 2006 Share Posted February 6, 2006 You are in middle position and hold 6 7 . There is one person in front of you and one behind you in late position. The big blind is $40.00. The pot is $380.00The flop:6 Q 8 Would my outs be?Any diamond = 10 outsAny 5 or 9 = 8 outsThe two 6's = 2 outsThe three 7's = 3 outsTotal of 23 outs.An out improves your hand to a potential winner. Outs to pick up a draw dont count. Runner-runner flush draws are worth about 1.5 outs. Runner-runner straight draws are worth slightly less than an out. Your 2 sixes are probably good clean outs, but your sevens might need to be discounted slightly as hitting one puts a straight on the board, and 2-pair wont always win. Likely worth 2.5 outs.Your hand is worth somewhere around 6.5 outs give or take an out. 6.5 outs gives you breakeven odds at 40.5:6.5, or just over 6:1. If the pot (including your opponent's bet, but not your call) isat least six times the amount you have to call, then the call should be profitable.This doesn't take into account implied odds and reverse-implied odds, but it's a good start. It also doesn't take into account the possibility that your pair might be good. Chances are low, so I wouldn't put too much value into that.Now, your opponent bet half the pot (190 into a 380 pot). That means your call is 1/3 the pot, or 3:1. Looks like a bad call to me. If he bet around 80 or so, it's looking a little better. Link to post Share on other sites
cu in 4years Dan 1 Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 "I currently have a backdoor flush draw on the flop and another diamond will give me a flush draw.I am working towards a straight draw but need a runner runner to achomplish it. "ummmm.... yeah.................... no. go back to poker school and learn the basics of not chasing runner runner Link to post Share on other sites
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