99 Near The Money Bubble

[HoosierAlum 0]

$109 40k guaranteed Party PokerKeep in mind that I have raised 3 out of the last 4 pots and taken them down uncontested. The table is playing fairly tight....but its still Party.81 players remain and 70 cash:#Game No : 4502215334 ***** Hand History for Game 4502215334 *****NL Texas Hold'em Trny:24768903 Level:9 Blinds-Antes(600/1200-50) - Monday, June 12, 21:20:09 ET 2006Table $40K Gtd.(727192) Table #8 (Real Money)Seat 5 is the buttonTotal number of players : 9 Seat 1: DeGamblor ( $44450 )Seat 2: THEMADLION ( $39105 )Seat 3: holyhanna ( $14114 )Seat 4: DiceDominator ( $23476 )Seat 5: jodan19 ( $6660 )Seat 6: rob42359 ( $15545 )Seat 7: HoosierFCP ( $16220 )Seat 8: igotitt1 ( $39579 )Seat 9: RedVelvetJ ( $13750 )Trny:24768903 Level:9Blinds-Antes(600/1200-50)DeGamblor posts ante [50].THEMADLION posts ante [50].holyhanna posts ante [50].DiceDominator posts ante [50].jodan19 posts ante [50].rob42359 posts ante [50].HoosierFCP posts ante [50].igotitt1 posts ante [50].RedVelvetJ posts ante [50].** Dealing down cards **Dealt to HoosierFCP [ 9c 9h ]igotitt1 folds.RedVelvetJ raises [2400].DeGamblor folds.THEMADLION folds.holyhanna folds.DiceDominator raises [3600].jodan19 folds.rob42359 calls [3000].HoosierFCP????

[Actuary 3]

call.I don't like the fold equity of a push.First in is low and has good odds to call..and subsequent callers will be getting huge odds..I play it for set value.

[tskillz187 0]

I'm folding this PF. Too likely Redvelvet is coming back over the top of this and if he does you just lost 25% of your stack without seeing a flop. A push is too aggressive IMO, as both of your opponents could be strong. The min raise UTG+1 screams of strength given the fact that he would probably fold speculative hands or push them, the minraise screams big PP to me. The min reraise could be something very strong as well, I fold and wait for a better spot.

[Jdr999 0]

call.I don't like the fold equity of a push.First in is low and has good odds to call..and subsequent callers will be getting huge odds..I play it for set value.

What happens if the flop is all undercards to a 9? Do you lead out if the SB checks, or check behind, and fold to a bet?I think you do not have enough chips to call just for set value.

[tskillz187 0]

Yet another reason why calling is super scary. I don't know though, I still think folding, though super wimpy is the most right play, but I can see calling or pushing. I think it goes Fold, Call, Push, but that they are all close.

[Actuary 3]

What happens if the flop is all undercards to a 9? Do you lead out if the SB checks, or check behind, and fold to a bet?I think you do not have enough chips to call just for set value.

lets assume we can make a super read and fold to any pushes that come from the EP raiser preflop (and that is someithng I discounted..but sure, he may be playing AA/KK)..and assume then that we are just calling 2400 morePot w/o our 2400 will be:3600 * 3 + 9 * 50 + 1200 (our BB) = 12,450 2400 * 7 = 16,800. how are we not getting set value?even alowing for us to lose with a set of 9's 30% of the time means we need to get paid off 24,000... that's just 11,550 more. Seems plausible under strict condtions of 70% win rate with a set.

[Jdr999 0]

2400 * 7 = 16,800. how are we not getting set value?

When is flopping a set 7-1? I always thought it was 8-1 or 8.5-1 to hit a set.Using the 7-1 odds, it's a good call, but anything higher and you lose value.

[Actuary 3]

When is flopping a set 7-1? I always thought it was 8-1 or 8.5-1 to hit a set.Using the 7-1 odds, it's a good call, but anything higher and you lose value.

it's 7.5 : 1But implied odds.They all aren't folding post flop with all that committed.Please, we have set value here.the only argument against it is the risk that the first raiser pushes preflop.Or we want to preserve chips for moves later.

[HoosierAlum 0]

Ok, Im on a different line of thinking so far...but its definitely a tough spot. I had to use my time bank to think how I was going to act, and Im still thinking about the hand a few days later. I'll give my decision and reasoning when I get a few more responses.

[mk 11]

Fold. At a passive table, min r/r from dice is [AA-TT, AK] almost all the time. Not a good time to make a stand. And since you have an aggressive image, you'll probably get at least one call so your FE is nil if you move in.And actuary, just calling for set value with an M of 7 is super light no matter what but indefensible since he isn't closing the action.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Basic info missing from original post:average stack sizeyour goals (make the money then see what happens, or go for broke regardless of being nearing the bubble, etc.)etc.

[tallytownFSU 0]

This is clearly a fold situation. I agree with mk, you need to pick a better spot. What happens if villian pushes on a 8 high flop? Then you need an even better read to call or fold. So fold, and pick a better spot.

[iggymcfly 0]

I'd call and play for set value, but that's just me. I can understand the reasoning behind a fold in this spot. Still though, I doubt the original raiser's soming back over the top after seeing the re-minraise and multiple callers. And 2400 into a 14000+ pot gives us great pot odds, and a chance to win a pot that could ultimately propel us to winning the tournament.When the original raiser does push, we can just chalk it up as a loss and still have a big enough stack to get into the money. I'd say he probably pushes about 25% of the time here, and even with that, we easily have the implied odds to hit a set. As for the 7 high flop, I think we can just fold it. The reraiser's representing extreme strength, the original raiser's representing strength, and the SB likely has something like a small pocket pair. Faced with that information, the chances that someone has TT-AA or a set are pretty damn high. Well over 50 percent.I think that the deciding factor is that this is a top-heavy MTT where we still don't want to give up our chances to cash. Thus, if we have a good chance to make a solid made hand that can double or triple up our stack without risking all of our chips, then we have to take it. Obviously, if this were a satellite or something, it would be an easy fold, but in this kind of MTT, the chance to get a big stack before the bubble is extremely valuable, and not something that we want to flush away in our big blind.

[Actuary 3]

And actuary, just calling for set value with an M of 7 is super light no matter what but indefensible since he isn't closing the action.

with all the money in the pot?Of course HU horible to call, but we easily have the implied odds.How much less effective will we be later to steal blinds though, when we lay this down 7/8 flops, vs what we gain if we win.I still like call.Again, I don't play 109 or MTT.So the min raise is not a glaring sign to me as much

[throwemaway 0]

Nvmd

[cdipierr 0]

Easy fold IMHO. Getting married to mid pair after a rasie, reraise, call (and then a likley push after us) is a mistake. I can't tell you how many times I've folded 99 or TT in a situation like this in live tournies, and though you sometimes just see AK AK and AQ, it's typically AK JJ and 88 .... easy fold.BTW -- I think calling is the worst here. If we call and then EP pushes (which I still think is likely), we have to fold (especially if it's called by any of the others). If we call, EP calls, then we get a flop. Any flop that doesn't make us a set is a bad one. Any overcards are bad, and undercards *could* be bad because we won't see a set of 4s (or similar) coming from the SB.

[Actuary 3]

!st pos always pushes here now?ok...then fold

[tskillz187 0]

Easy fold IMHO. Getting married to mid pair after a rasie, reraise, call (and then a likley push after us) is a mistake. I can't tell you how many times I've folded 99 or TT in a situation like this in live tournies, and though you sometimes just see AK AK and AQ, it's typically AK JJ and 88 .... easy fold.BTW -- I think calling is the worst here. If we call and then EP pushes (which I still think is likely), we have to fold (especially if it's called by any of the others). If we call, EP calls, then we get a flop. Any flop that doesn't make us a set is a bad one. Any overcards are bad, and undercards *could* be bad because we won't see a set of 4s (or similar) coming from the SB.

I think calling is better than pushing because the FE is to me very low for UTG+1 and Dice. The SB might fold to a push but if he sees two folds in a row there is a lot of money in the pot allowing him to call. In addition to the FE being so low I think it is likely that hoosier only has 2 outs. The call on the other hand is very close with the fold IMO. I still think fold is best because with my style I try to chip up against weak players and try to get heads up. The line after the flop seems dangerous if no set is hit. No set no bet seems weak, betting with unders might be suicidal. I just don't like the spot at all, which is why I lean towards fold, but I can see more reason for calling over pushing.

[mk 11]

with all the money in the pot?Of course HU horible to call, but we easily have the implied odds.

With an M of 7 you're at the point where you can't really afford to play pots. You need to take them down without encountering resistance, or you have to have a hand you're willing to go all the way with u/i. The overlay in this situation is nice, but you're risking too large a portion of your stack with the risk of not even getting to see a flop.

[gobears 0]

I think that I'd call here and see a flop. Implied odds are huge as long as RedVelvet doesn't push and although the min-raise is scary, the min re-raise has to have him thinking.If RV pushes then we can get out and it basically cost us one M. Normally, we don't have the implied odds to call but with three other players in on the flop, I think that it's worth a shot as if we do hit our set, we're likely to get paid off by one of the other three players.

[Actuary 3]

With an M of 7 you're at the point where you can't really afford to play pots. You need to take them down without encountering resistance, or you have to have a hand you're willing to go all the way with u/i. The overlay in this situation is nice, but you're risking too large a portion of your stack with the risk of not even getting to see a flop.

given the situation..and time from the FT... and I assume Hoosier is not playing just to cash, dont we need to take this risk. Yeah, our M is low but this is an opportunity to get a very big stack. Is there really much tourney equity differnce between M=7 and M=5 ?

[HoosierAlum 0]

For those who are advising folding, what minimum hand do you need to jam?BTW, I HATE smooth calling in this spot.

[mk 11]

For those who are advising folding, what minimum hand do you need to jam?BTW, I HATE smooth calling in this spot.

Honestly, probably only moving in with AA-QQ, AK. Thank you. I think it's easily the worst of the three options.

[tskillz187 0]

For those who are advising folding, what minimum hand do you need to jam?BTW, I HATE smooth calling in this spot.

Blah. AA Joking, but the situation is sooooo crappy. I wouldn't hate a jam with JJ but I would understand a fold with it too. QQ-AA jam possible jam with AK. I don't see how you can like pushing with 99 here over smoothcalling. Your 99 is the same as 22 in this pot, which is why I can understand calling but I'd opt with folding.

[7s7c 0]

I'm folding here if I perceive that the min raise signals a monster hand and that we may just end up getting it in anyway 3 ways in which case the 9's are most likely drawing to a set. I hate calling as well. I vote fold and am moving in with J's-A's and A/K. Again a min raise at this juncture in the tourney where the play probably dictates taking the pot down with least resistance the min raiser obviously wants action.