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answer to quizz question #7


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Before I answer the question, let's look at the following simulations where 7 :) 8 :) is up against the following hands:vs 2 :) 2 :D 53.48%vs A :) K :) 41.92%vs A :) 6 :D 47.59%vs A :) A :) 23.11%vs 8 :) 6 :) 61.76%vs A :club: 8 :D 34.35% Now, it's 6000 to call and you could win 8400. So you are getting about 4 to 3 odds on your money. Factoring in all of Antonio's possible holdings it appears as though I was getting the right price in this situation. I was in this hand and made a mistake. My thinking was that I could win the next hand if Antonio didn't have anything. I knew as I folded it was a mistake. I later talked to Gus Hansen about the hand and he thought my laydown was absolutely horrible. It was the wrong play for sure, but I wouldn't go as far as horrible. Antonio later told me that he had A :D 6 :D so while I was getting 1.4 to 1 odds, I ended up folding in a coinflip situation.

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Hey, I got another one right, I must be a pro :D My reasoning, as well as most of people in the question thread who said to call, was pretty much what you said. You've got a hand that is probably not much worse than a coinflip or so and you need to double up badly. You have no reason to think that you will either get another good hand very soon or that he will fold to an all-in push once you've folded this and maybe another hand so you have to take your chance with this hand right now.

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I'm surprised that Antonio had that good of a hand considering that his range could even put you in a favorite situation. The stack is so short that you are getting good odds on your $$$ considering the opponent

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I voted call but I'm sad to say it wasn't for any of those reasons. Thats quite a chip desperity and with a nice suited connector I can't let it go. You're going to have to get lucky as it is...so why not try it out with a pretty hand like that.

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Holy crap, after I read the situation I easily decided to call and then told myself he might have A6 or something. Now I read that he did have A6, wow!!! I can't believe I called that. Probably just lucky guess.Quick question, why are you an underdog to 8 :D 6 :) ?

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He's not an underdog. He's a 61.7% favorite. Those percentages are his chance of winning. You're just reading it backwards. :)I voted call because suited connectors are about a coinflip to any two random cards. And this is probably your best chance to double up and get back in the race.

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He's not an underdog. He's a 61.7% favorite. Those percentages are his chance of winning. You're just reading it backwards. :D
Wow, do I feel smart >.< :oops: :oops: This just goes to prove that my call of Antonio's cards was lucky.
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I later talked to Gus Hansen about the hand and he thought my laydown was absolutely horrible.  It was the wrong play for sure, but I wouldn't go as far as horrible.
I'm always interested in hearing Gus' reasoning for things. Did he explain why he thought the fold was absolutely horrible?
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Horrible? The fold can't be that bad.Assume Antonio is playing any ace, any pair.87s needs 1.48 from the pot to call. Danielis getting 1.4 on this pot. That's a marginaldon't call. Gus decided that Antonio has atempo tell. Gus called Antonio with T8 ofdiamonds when Antonio took too long to raiseall in. Say Antonio gave away that he didn'thold a high pair, AK, or AQs. Now the 87sneeds only 1.34 from the pot. This time it'smarginally right to call. Big deal. 87s isonly 47.76% against a set of random hands.Whatever Daniel did on this deal, it wouldn'thave improved his chances of winning the matchmuch. What about the hand that crippledDaniel? That's the hand I'm interested inseeing.

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gus says to call because he has to make a stand, even if he steals next hand hes back to this same situation and theres no way to avoid having to win some races to get back from this situationthats what i think anyway

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Short-stacked from the earlier hand, Daniel goes all in with J-10 suited against Antonio Esfandiari's K-9. The flop comes K-9-3, giving Antonio two pair, but leaving Daniel with a gut-shot straight draw. A meaningless 4 falls on the turn, and a king on the river gives Antonio a full house and eliminates Daniel Negreanu from the tournament.

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I skipped the replys but I'm not sure the fold is so horrible. Surely you can pick a better spot in a hand or two where you think you might be better than a coinflip. Sure in this place we now know you are a coin flip but you are going to be a dog against a larger pair or two bigger cards. A coin flip is really about the best you could hope for. If you think half the time you are going to be a dog and half the time you might be a coin flip to me I don't want to risk my entire stack in this situation.I'm not sure if I got any of the other quiz quetions wrong but in this case I guess I got it wrong but I do disagree. It's a close one either way but I actually like how you played it in the first place. Fold. But what do I know.

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The problem with folding is that even if you get AA on the next hand and double up, your stack will still be insignificant. Doubling up and having a stack of 14,400 would be better than 12,000. That extra 2,400 is another 1.5 rounds of the blinds to find another strong hand.And suited connecters are about a coin-flip to any two random cards (except an overpair).

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87s isnt good at a full table, but not too bad. Its definantly above averageHeads up 87s is a bad hand. Maybe somewhere in between marginal and bad at best. Its definantly below average. 8J unsuited, for exampe is considerably better heads up. Too many people dont adjust for heads up play properly. Remember, 27 isnt the worst hand heads up, 23 is. All odds are different, implied and implicit.I'll fold this hand here, and still think even after what I've heard from Daniel and Gus (however much i respect them) its the right thing to do. As someone mentioned, assuming he'll do this with any two picture cards (my addition), any ace, or any pocket pair, Poker Stove says your not getting odds to call. I know you need to double up, but chances are you'll get a better hand NEXT hand.

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I voted call. Its a pretty easy decision if you think about it. Your sitting with 78 suited. He went all in. You only have enough chips to play 5 more hands if you fold. And if you win you double up making yourself alot more of a threat to your opponent. If lets say he was sitting with Pocket Aces Or Pockey Kings...and he revealed his cards by an accident, I would've still called him. You need to make a move at some point. He went all in, giving you a chance to double up, not many chances when the chip leaders gonna do that.

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I'd probably fold here and push on the next hand to steal back my blind. I don't like risking my tournament on a coin-flip, but with the blinds this big it is basically inevitable. Still, I have found myself in this situation before and I have folded in this spot then pushed the next hand. This generally continues, one person pushing the other folding until someone wakes up with a decent enough hand to call... so I guess in that respect it still boils down to a coin-flip, who will wake up with a good hand first. Of course Gus would say it was a mistake, he lives for coin-flips. I'd probably want king high or better to call. Failing that I'd fold then push any two cards the next hand, giving him the opportunity to fold. Maybe calling is the better option, but I don't think folding and then pushing any 2 is much worse.

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If lets say he was sitting with Pocket Aces Or Pockey Kings...and he revealed his cards by an accident, I would've still called him.
I did that once to my friend at a home game. I had AA and he had A-6o and even after I showed him my cards he still had to think for about 5 minutes about folding.
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I have to agree that calling is the right play. In teh situation where you only have 5 blinds left, all of the pot odds needs to be thrown out the window. If you just sit around and fold this hand, you're down to 6K to his ~75K. That would be a miracle comeback. You have to take a stand rather than let yourself get blinded to eternity.Now, let's say that you fold this hand and the push with your next and, no matter what it is, with the intention of stealing the blinds. remember that your opponent already has 1200 in from the big blind, so he only has to call 4800 for a pot of 7200. That's 3:2 and odds are you will get called with even a marginal hand. Bottom line... you WILL NOT be atealing the blinds next hand. If I'm the chip leader I call with anything in that situation. Even if I double you up, I still have ~70K to your 12K, so it is worth the risk with any hand.Now, to those of you that said to look for a better hand in the next two hands, that's impossible. What if a better hand doesn't come??? Even if it does, you are going to get called and it's unlikely that you will be too much of a favorite unless you get a very lucky deal.IMHO, you need chips immediately. With 78s I take my chances here, and especially against Antonio, who we all know can get a bit wreckless heads up. I call. Easily.

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Short-stacked from the earlier hand, Daniel goes all in with J-10 suited against Antonio Esfandiari's K-9. The flop comes K-9-3, giving Antonio two pair, but leaving Daniel with a gut-shot straight draw. A meaningless 4 falls on the turn, and a king on the river gives Antonio a full house and eliminates Daniel Negreanu from the tournament.
Daniel...do you think you would've survived this hand if your chipstack were 16,800 instead of 6,000? How would you and Antonio played this hand differently with a 5:1 chip disadvantage instead of a 12:1 disadvantage? I presume you would've held off on raising all-in preflop from the SB, but would you have folded if Antonio had put you all-in or raised to ~8000? Enquiring minds want to know...
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erp! For some reason I misread the quiz question and when i replied here I thought you were both equal in chips with huge blinds forcing a confrontation soon. I guess im dyslexic because when i read it i thought it was 7k vs 7k not 7k vs 72k. Maybe I should have read the other replies before I made mine. Anyway, being outchipped like that and with blinds so big, yeah I'd definately push here and I agree with gus that is was a mistake not to call, though I don't think it was a terrible mistake.Maybe it was my brain failing to read the extra zero on the end of antonio's stack, how could Daniel be outchipped so much by the magician! ;)Pushing any two on the next hand, as I originally suggested, would have been terrible if he outchipped you so bad; yeah you have to call here

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