Absolute 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Anyone who has been around will remember a post a long time ago that involved making two pair with AK on the river when a four flush also hits. It ended up being a long dramatic argument that was never really resolved.2/4 (9 handed)Preflop: Hero in the CO with the A :icon_suit_spade: K :icon_suit_spade: MP limps, Hero raises. Button calls cold, SB 3-bets, MP calls, Hero caps, everyone calls. Flop: (17 SB) K :icon_suit_heart: T :icon_suit_heart: 8 :icon_suit_spade: Hero bets, button calls, SB raises, MP folds. Hero 3-bets, button calls, SB calls. Turn: (13 BB) 8 :icon_suit_heart: SB checks, Hero bets, button folds, SB calls. River: (15 BBs) A :icon_suit_heart: SB bets, Hero ???Think about this a bit before you post. There are arguments for all three options. Link to post Share on other sites
Shocktastik 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 I'm gonna take a shot here. I think you have to call. First lets look at the likely holdings of the SB (since what anyone else had doesn't really matter). The SB (if a halfway decent player) will 3bet with a limited number of hands, but lets be liberal in assigning possible hands. Preflop they could have AA-88, AKs-ATs, AKo, AQo, and possibly KQs.Flop: (17 SB) K :icon_suit_heart: T :icon_suit_heart: 8 :icon_suit_spade: On the flop the SB raises but then only calls the reraise. This indicates that they don't have AA,KK,TT,88 and probably AKs, AKo and KQs (they would have reraised with these hands). And they probably would have folded 99, (possibly folded QQ but we'll assume they stay with that for now). This brings us down to QQ, AQs, AQo, AJs, ATs.Turn: (13 BB) 8 :icon_suit_heart: SB checks here. They probably don't have the flush or they would have bet out against our aggressive hero. That eliminates AQ :icon_suit_heart: , AJ :icon_suit_heart: , AT :icon_suit_heart: . This leaves us with AQo and QQ (possibly containing the Q :icon_suit_heart: )River: (15 BBs) A :icon_suit_heart: SB Bets out at the scare card. It is too likely that they have the Q :icon_suit_heart: to raise here. But given the action of the aggressive sb thus far they could also have QQ without the heart, or the AQo (straight draw) without the heart as well. But at this point you're getting 16:1 on your money and you would have to be VERY sure that they had the heart before you'd be willing to fold.Feel free to critique my examination of this hand, but I feel like I've fairly thoroughly run over they possible hands and available options. Link to post Share on other sites
Absolute 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 The Villian is 25/9/1.6 Link to post Share on other sites
Valetdetrefla 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 nh. The three bet on the flop (assuming SB is not a maniac) leads me to believe that we have to be beat here. My play would vary based on my past experiences w/the SB (if he's a maniac, this is an easy call), but all things being equal, I can't raise on that river and I can't just lay it down. Calling is the cop out, and a raise (followed by a fold to a 3 bet) is better than a fold.A tough spot, I can see why this hand brought up a long discussion. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 these stats generally indicate you're getting reliable info on the river.He's not 3-bet bluffingHe will play:QQh/ JJh / KQh / and AK all the way thru the turn as played99h is outside chance, I'll excludewe hear more from sets and flushes before riverthat is 12 combination. We are tied with the 4 AK's.Here's my $25k question:Does SLAPPY (1) donk this river enough with AK, (2) fold to a raise, (3) not bluff 3-bet, to warrant a Raise-Fold line?I don't think raise call is best against him.We are showing as strong as AA/KK/TT here. we rarely play Jjh/QQh like this on the flop (well, I don't at least), so Villans 3-bet on river would mean we are toast.He'll donk the River with AK for fold equity and it's an easy laydown. As noted, we aren't playing a flush, so our raise signals BOAT to him, a lot. Enough that he may fold AK a good amount... maybe.Just based on stats and our show of strength, I don't see us getting bluff 3-bet.I'm talking myself into the raise/fold line.Could I pull that at the 2/4 tables on PArty? heh.. no. I'd call. During play, I inflate villans propensity to bluff and talk myself into safe play.getting AK to fold a few times is huge Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 2/4 on party, i don't think anything we're behind folds, which essentially removes raising as the best option.on another site, that isn't a guarantee.that's all i'm sayin. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Easy check.If you were OOP, it would be a bet against most players. Link to post Share on other sites
Absolute 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Easy check.If you were OOP, it would be a bet against most players.don't see how you can check to a bet Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 you mean call, of course.either way, you're wrong!lol..hi Screech. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Except he was bet into on the river, screech.- ZachEDIT - man, I'm slow... Link to post Share on other sites
AlphaOmega 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 IMO I don't think folding is an option. I think it's either a call or a raise.Personally, I think we should raise/fold to a three bet.We could fold broadway, as well as another AK enough times, and since the pot is so big, that's pretty significant. I think the value lost by raising into a made flush is offset by the times we snag this pot from hands we chop or lose to. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 IMO I don't think folding is an option. I think it's either a call or a raise.Personally, I think we should raise/fold to a three bet.We could fold broadway, as well as another AK enough times, and since the pot is so big, that's pretty significant. I think the value lost by raising into a made flush is offset by the times we snag this pot from hands we chop or lose to.I like this. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 you know me, not one to toot my own horn.but just quote me next time Omega and Zach!I need all the love I can get.I hate my job. Link to post Share on other sites
Absolute 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 IMO I don't think folding is an option. I think it's either a call or a raise.Personally, I think we should raise/fold to a three bet.We could fold broadway, as well as another AK enough times, and since the pot is so big, that's pretty significant. I think the value lost by raising into a made flush is offset by the times we snag this pot from hands we chop or lose to.A lot of bad players will fold this and argue for it all day. It's an option, just a terrible one. Link to post Share on other sites
rwood 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 easy call, cant fold, cant raise for apparent reasons.call. i dont know how this was argued about for so long... Link to post Share on other sites
Shocktastik 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 easy call, cant fold, cant raise for apparent reasons.call. i dont know how this was argued about for so long...Depending on the game and the specific opponent it would be easy to argue any of the options. Link to post Share on other sites
Absolute 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 easy call, cant fold, cant raise for apparent reasons.call. i dont know how this was argued about for so long...I have an idea why "we argued" about this for so long.I think it is because a large % of winning players, including myself, vote for raise. Recognize your limits and appreciate discussion. Link to post Share on other sites
MasterLJ 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 1 more bet to win 19, and we are having this discussion... why? You only have to be right roughly 5% of the time.Crying call all day long...QQ <---- Crying Link to post Share on other sites
Absolute 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 these stats generally indicate you're getting reliable info on the river.He's not 3-bet bluffingHe will play:QQh/ JJh / KQh / and AK all the way thru the turn as played99h is outside chance, I'll excludewe hear more from sets and flushes before riverthat is 12 combination. We are tied with the 4 AK's.Here's my $25k question:Does SLAPPY (1) donk this river enough with AK, (2) fold to a raise, (3) not bluff 3-bet, to warrant a Raise-Fold line?I don't think raise call is best against him.We are showing as strong as AA/KK/TT here. we rarely play Jjh/QQh like this on the flop (well, I don't at least), so Villans 3-bet on river would mean we are toast.He'll donk the River with AK for fold equity and it's an easy laydown. As noted, we aren't playing a flush, so our raise signals BOAT to him, a lot. Enough that he may fold AK a good amount... maybe.Just based on stats and our show of strength, I don't see us getting bluff 3-bet.I'm talking myself into the raise/fold line.Could I pull that at the 2/4 tables on PArty? heh.. no. I'd call. During play, I inflate villans propensity to bluff and talk myself into safe play.getting AK to fold a few times is hugeExcellent post and I agree.Also to mention, the A :icon_suit_heart: being live is very important in choosing to raise. Link to post Share on other sites
Shocktastik 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 I don't hate raise here, I believe call is better though. At these low of limits how likely is it to push out anyone that has us beat at this point? I don't think very likely. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Simply out of curiosity, and not that I don't love engaging in a long poker discussion, but could this possibly be one of those hands where calling=raise/fold as far as ev is concerned? One of those things where it makes such a small difference in the long run that it doesn't really matter? Just curious. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Excellent post and I agree.that's it.i'm throwing my name into the hat for Strategy Forum Emperor Link to post Share on other sites
Shocktastik 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Simply out of curiosity, and not that I don't love engaging in a long poker discussion, but could this possibly be one of those hands where calling=raise/fold as far as ev is concerned? One of those things where it makes such a small difference in the long run that it doesn't really matter? Just curious.Probably There really isn't a universally correct answer anyway, the "right" answer probably varies slightly by situation. Either calling or Raising/folding if rr is probably very close anyway. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Shocktastic:we may fodl AK, I'm sure we never fold a better hand.AK bets this river a lot, because we only have to fold like 1/17 times.And we have AK a lot here, so that's not hard to believe for villan.Zach, yeah... I'm pretty sure Raise fold and call are close. Hence why I say one and do the other. Stats can lie sometimes. But with your money on the line, I'd say raise/fold, repeating it 100 times. Link to post Share on other sites
Absolute 0 Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 I don't hate raise here, I believe call is better though. At these low of limits how likely is it to push out anyone that has us beat at this point? I don't think very likely.The villian does not have a full house unless it's AA, as the board paired on the turn and there was no action. AA still isn't all that likely, as opponents with his numbers will usually go one more bet on the flop and bet the turn. KQo for the nut flush won't be 3-bet from the SB very often here by a guy with his numbers. QQ or JJ with a heart is a possibility, but his c/r on the flop makes it unlikely. Now for the hands we can beat. A bluff with something like KQo without the heart or QQ with a heart. Outside shot of something like AQ without a heart.Also we obviously chop with AK, which I actually think is the most likely of any specific hand he will have here.Hands we beat that fold to a raise : 10%Hands we beat that call a raise : ~0%Hands that beat me that fold to a raise : ~0%Hands that beat me that don't fold to a raise : 30%Hands that chop that fold to a raise : 50%Hands that chop that call a raise : 10% Now, why don't we raise? Link to post Share on other sites
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