236 replies to this topic

[Acid_Knight]

SCS, on Monday, October 16th, 2006, 4:13 PM, said:

Also, Daniel doesn't say that he would fold as a 53% favorite, just that someone could make a justifiable argument for doing so.

See, the thing is that pepole can make a justifiable argument for folding.Someone can legitimately say "I paid $10,000 cash to enter this tournament and I want to do everything possible to ensure that I last until the first break." In that way, their playing style might be so selectively tight that they will only play AA, KK or QQ to a raise preflop. It might not be the best strategy, and their goal might not be to win the tournament, but if that is the way that they want to play, then it is perfectly reasonable to fold the hand here becuase it guarantees that they will last at least another hand.I think that it's hard to argue for a fold if you're playing to win because:1. You're properly bankrolled and the $10,000 buyin doesn't represent a large portion of your bankroll. Either that, or you qualified online.2. You play tournaments for a living and are comfortably financially.3. You know that winning this hand will give you a larger edge and a better chance to go deep into the field.

shpaget, on Monday, October 16th, 2006, 4:44 PM, said:

It's times like this that I pity the Internet and the entire social ineptitude it has created.Even when I put the winky emoticon people don't get the joke. Sad, really.

The only reason that I made that post was to see if you'd really defend yourself against my retarded assertion that you might actually think that 2+2=5 is a matter of opinion.I was laughing as I wrote it, and I beamed on the inside to think you took the time to respond!

[shpaget]

Acid_Knight, on Monday, October 16th, 2006, 3:47 PM, said:

I was laughing as I wrote it, and I beamed on the inside to think you took the time to respond!

Is that a fact?

[Acid_Knight]

shpaget, on Monday, October 16th, 2006, 4:51 PM, said:

Is that a fact?

Excellent.

[kennyg1966]

MY DECISION DEPENDS ON HOW I GOT MY BUYIN....did i sell the car or win the seat. If i won it why not take a shot nothing to lozzzzzzzzze..If i paid the entry myself i might wait for a better spot! B)

[simo_8ball]

kennyg1966, on Wednesday, October 18th, 2006, 8:54 PM, said:

If i paid the entry myself i might wait for a better spot! B)

Yeah, because better opportunities do appear regularly. This IS the proverbial 'better opportunity' that people look for.

[Shizzmoney]

Quote

However, I would prefer to make sure I played with Hansen and Ivey for the next three-four hours, rather than take a 3-2 chance that I would lose that opportunity on the first hand.

Yeah, well I would prefer that by taking this chance I could play against these two maniacs with a ton of chips as supposed to my original buy-in, increasing my edge.Chips are power, no matter how bad or good you are(just look at Gold and Raymer's success in the ME with super stacks).

[leducks2004]

I call knowing im ahead. Take that chance to double up...your gonna need the chips to play against the dangerous gus hanson and phil ivey

[pkr_invitational]

Balloon guy, on Monday, September 11th, 2006, 12:17 PM, said:

The real question is what time is the tee time that is making Phil Ivey push this hard with QJ hearts?

This posting never says Phil Ivey is the small blind going all in with Q J . The small blind is unknown. I also find it hard to believe Hanson didn't stay in to see a flop. He plays ATC available.

[Acid_Knight]

pkr_invitational, on Wednesday, November 22nd, 2006, 7:18 AM, said:

This posting never says Phil Ivey is the small blind going all in with Q J . The small blind is unknown. I also find it hard to believe Hanson didn't stay in to see a flop. He plays ATC available.

First, welcome to the forum.2nd, umm, you won't want to make many posts that are this dumb.Balloon guy is funny. This is a joke. It is also known as "sarcasm" in some circles. You should learn to pick up on that.Gus does fold hands. Beside that, there is no point in arguring with how realistic a hypothetical post is.But seriously, welcome to the forum.

[AceofSpader]

Um....DN, excuse me while I say......DUH

[mtdesmoines]

DanielNegreanu, on Monday, September 11th, 2006, 11:32 AM, said:

It's the very first hand of the WSOP main event and there are 12,000 players. At your table are Phil Ivey, Gus Hansen, and six other players you've never seen before. Everyone folds to the small blind. When he peeks at his cards, you see that he has the Q J . For some bizarre reason, he decides to go all in??? You are in the big blind and have the A K . The question is simple: call or fold?

The key element in this question is that it's the ME. If this was just any normal cash game or a tourney you play every week, it's an autocall. But since the question is set up that it's the ME, a lot of people are stumbling over it.And I don't care who's at the table. This specific situation isn't about who can "play." This is about the cards in front of us and are we willing to let our ME dreams rest on a 60/40 decision. For me, I grudgingly call. The thing is ... if you're going to win/place/show in the ME, you're going to ( have to? / end up? ) going in as a dog at some point. In this case, you're the favorite. Stick the chips in. If you lose, the Grand Canyon is something else. Rent a boat on Lake Mead. Browbeat the other ME early-exit donks in a cash games. If you win ... look at all the damn chips. (Who wouldn't want to be Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen's "Table Boss?")That's just me. You asked. I answered.

[copernicus]

Interesting that the poll results are about 3:2 in favor of calling with the 3:2 edge. easy call.

[Nashtak]

cfinnn, on Tuesday, September 12th, 2006, 9:56 PM, said:

Behind door #1: 60% of the time I double up and have a chip lead at my table. Yay me. I cannot confirm these numbers and they may be completely off, but I have been told in a tourney as big as the ME that gives me about a 1% greater chance of winning the event. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. However, whatever the exact number, I am not getting a large advantage, percentagewise, to win the event by making this call.Behind door #2: 40% of the time I lose and go home.

I disagree with this. If your aim is to win the event (like in the context of your comment), you might want to re-consider the situation here.Here you have a chance to double up, something only half the players (mathematically speaking) will be able to achieve. So by turning down a 60 to 40 chance of doubling up, i'd assume you believe you are able to double up with more ease than the average player in this event. But here is something you forgot to consider (or simply ignored). You have Gus and Ivey at your table. Do you really think your chance of doubling up are much higher than 60% if you grind your way up?I also don't like the way you justify folding simply because your chance of winning the event are still slim even if you win. They won't be any higher no matter how you get your chips. Beside, mathematically wise, you might only be 1% closer to getting all the chips in the tourney but your bigger stack will increase your chances even more as you will be able to ''defend'' yourself from the super-aggressive play of the 2 pros at your table.So calling or folding rely on only one question; Do you think your chances of doubling up your stack are higher than 60% considering your abilities and the presence of Gus and Ivey?This looks like a call to me.PS: I know i'm answering to something posted probably a week or 2 ago but i'm also curious to see what do you guys think of this?

[mtdesmoines]

Nashtak, on Sunday, October 5th, 2008, 10:38 AM, said:

PS: I know i'm answering to something posted probably a week or 2 TWO YEARS ago but i'm also curious to see what do you guys think of this?

FYP

[Paul Brevard]

mtdesmoines, on Monday, October 6th, 2008, 4:36 PM, said:

FYP

Me too. I'm calling. I know he has a better strait and flush draw but oh well. I need chips to battle these guys or they'll just push the crap out of me.I would rather double up early and have a fighting chance or go out early and cry over a big steak. Besides, I'm here to win!

[RGDeClue]

#1 rule of pops poker school. Do not gamble with an A-hole. You can make the case of calling as you have the best hand and so that could not be faulted. In a cash game, this is an INSTANT call. The real question is how would you play this hand if you did not see the cards? Most of you would call and so would I as he probably doesn't have a big pair and you dominate AQ, AJS and similar. However, knowing he is NOT dominated (wish he had AQ) you should not gamble. It is breaking the habit of going all in when only 60% to 40% favorite. How many times do you think you can do that before you loose your whole stack. Again, this is NOT a cash game. You are favored to LOOSE by the third all in this tournament. You have a long way to go and hopefully, this player will make the same mistake again, later on, and show you his cards when you are in a better position with better odds and more ships. Side note: What a donkey to go all in to pick up a blind with QJ! He is a gambler and not a player! He is afraid of the pros and does not want to see a flop. You can outplay him any hand he calls with and just wait for a monster when he most certainly tries the weak all in again.

[RGDeClue]

One could make the case of folding early, and I would to take advantage of this idiot with better odds. However, once in the money rounds, this to me is an instant call. You stand to gain more real money, not fake chips, by this call.