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Tough Decision W/ Bottom Set


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#1 bbgun

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Posted 08 August 2011 - 08:33 PM

Live 1-2 game @ local dog track...I have played against both opponents several times. Both are tricky players and better than average. Villain #1 UTG $600Hero MP $460Villain #2 Cutoff $58UTG raises to $10, Hero calls w 7s7d, Cutoff calls. Pot $33Flop Qd8c7cUTG checks, Hero bets $20, Cutoff raises all-in to $48, UTG calls, Hero raises to $120 total, UTG raises All-In, Hero ?????1. Thoughts on leading out vs. checking2. Flat the $48 or re-raise?3. As played, can we find a fold here?
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#2 XXEddie

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Posted 08 August 2011 - 08:36 PM

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#3 XXEddie

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Posted 08 August 2011 - 08:52 PM

View Postbbgun, on Monday, August 8th, 2011, 10:33 PM, said:

Live 1-2 game @ local dog track...I have played against both opponents several times. Both are tricky players and better than average. Villain #1 UTG $600Hero MP $460Villain #2 Cutoff $58UTG raises to $10, Hero calls w 7s7d, Cutoff calls. Pot $33Flop Qd8c7cUTG checks, Hero bets $20, Cutoff raises all-in to $48, UTG calls, Hero raises to $120 total, UTG raises All-In, Hero ?????1. Thoughts on leading out vs. checkingI like it vs known opponents if you've done it in the past against them. If you only lead out like this with strong hands you'll lose money, but if you do it with weaker hands/draws, this can be a good play to bloat the pot fast with a strong holding such as your set.2. Flat the $48 or re-raise?I see merit in both, but I think overall calling is the best play here to precedewith caution vs this good villain. Is he going to call a 3-bet with AQ, KK+? . UTGs flat is very interesting here. It certainly narrows his range here since floating here with AK or even JJ would seem out of character for the caliber of player you describe villains as. So he would have KQ+, 78s, 88, QQ+, and a lot of flush draws. Would you put hands like 87s and KQ into his UTG raising range?I could be way off in wanting to flat the flop though. One of my weaknesses is playing hands like this very passive, because I'm always fearing I'm going to get coolered. 3. As played, can we find a fold here?First of all. If we find one it will have to be found amongst all the vomit you have spewed onto the table. It all depends on what lesser hands UTG can be shoving here. I think the Q not being a club is key. It brings like AcQc and KcQc into play whereas on the Qc8d7c board a hand like 8cXc is less likely. Can villain ever make this play with worse than 77? Would he do this with a draw? Basically, how often will you see AQo, AQcc, KQcc, KK+, 87, T9cc... etc.
Overall, this may be a gross, gross muck. I think a lot of it depends on just how wide you think villain is shoving here? Any more info on him?

#4 bbgun

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Posted 08 August 2011 - 09:11 PM

View PostXXEddie, on Monday, August 8th, 2011, 11:52 PM, said:

Overall, this may be a gross, gross muck. I think a lot of it depends on just how wide you think villain is shoving here? Any more info on him?
Not sure if 87s is in his range, but he did open w KQs either UTG or UTG +1 earlier. I should also mention that I did snap off a bluff against him last week w/ TPTK.
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#5 fighter

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Posted 08 August 2011 - 09:20 PM

Assuming he 3 bets QQ pre flop. You can't fold here since he could have Qxcc, T9cc, JTcc, 65cc, 87hh 8,910 games 0.077 secs 115,714 games/secBoard: Qd 8c 7cDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 47.093% 47.09% 00.00% 4196 0.00 { 7d7s }Hand 1: 52.907% 52.91% 00.00% 4714 0.00 { 88, KcQc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 8h7h, 6c5c }If he doesn't have JTcc,65cc,Qxcc, It becomes very close due to pot odds. 4,950 games 0.005 secs 990,000 games/secBoard: Qd 8c 7cDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 32.364% 32.36% 00.00% 1602 0.00 { 7d7s }Hand 1: 67.636% 67.64% 00.00% 3348 0.00 { 88, Tc9c, 8h7h }Board: Qd 8c 7cDead: EV of Call= Total pot*equity 460*2+48+3 =971 971*.32364 = 317Fold= remaining stack460-130= 330 So with the above range it is $13 dollars more profitable to fold. However if you compare it to the ev of a call to the first range (971*.47=456, 456-330=$126) then I don't think you can fold because giving a live "tricky" player that tight of a range is unrealistic imo. ---If the flop was 3 random suits, The only hand he is representing then is 88 and possibly 87. If he was nitty and wouldn't play 87o pre flop then I think you could fold there. (971*.25=242, 242-330= -$88) Espically if doesn't 3bet QQ preflop close to 100%.In the above I didn't include the equity for the 58 stack, I assume that it would make all of the above ev calculations slightly on the higher side but considering his stack size and perceived range I don't think it is too much of an issue.

#6 CobaltBlue

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Posted 08 August 2011 - 11:25 PM

View Postfighter, on Tuesday, August 9th, 2011, 1:20 AM, said:

Assuming he 3 bets QQ pre flop.
UTG raised pre...he didn't have the option to 3bet. Then he check/flat/backraises the flop.Also, while I guess we're "leading out" on the flop, I don't really look it as a donkbet since the PFR checked. I think you very much want to bet unless you're certain CO is going to bet.
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#7 SuperJon

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Posted 09 August 2011 - 02:22 AM

which dog track?

#8 trystero

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Posted 09 August 2011 - 02:47 AM

meh, fold. he has QQ. I'd assume he would be c/betting a hand like JcTc hereflop is an auto-bet...I probably just call the raise, being in position. if you're sick about him shoving then you shouln't have raised in the first place...if he's decent, he's not going to put any more money with a one pair hand like AQ.

#9 bbgun

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Posted 09 August 2011 - 05:10 AM

View PostSuperJon, on Tuesday, August 9th, 2011, 5:22 AM, said:

which dog track?
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#10 bbgun

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Posted 09 August 2011 - 04:37 PM

View Posttrystero, on Tuesday, August 9th, 2011, 5:47 AM, said:

meh, fold. he has QQ. I'd assume he would be c/betting a hand like JcTc hereflop is an auto-bet...I probably just call the raise, being in position. if you're sick about him shoving then you shouln't have raised in the first place...if he's decent, he's not going to put any more money with a one pair hand like AQ.
I tanked for 3-4 minutes...swallowed the vomit and folded. The board ran out AxJx...the short stack rolls over AQ and UTG mucks. He says he had AcKc, which I believe. I haven't played a ton of live 1-2 and this is the first time I have ever considered folding a set on the flop. Lots of different ways this could have played out...if I flat the $48 he makes TPTK + nut flush draw on the turn and who knows what happens there. Or if I bet $25 instead of $20, I can't re-raise the flop.
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#11 XXEddie

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Posted 10 August 2011 - 06:27 AM

View Postbbgun, on Tuesday, August 9th, 2011, 6:37 PM, said:

I tanked for 3-4 minutes...swallowed the vomit and folded. The board ran out AxJx...the short stack rolls over AQ and UTG mucks. He says he had AcKc, which I believe. I haven't played a ton of live 1-2 and this is the first time I have ever considered folding a set on the flop. Lots of different ways this could have played out...if I flat the $48 he makes TPTK + nut flush draw on the turn and who knows what happens there. Or if I bet $25 instead of $20, I can't re-raise the flop.
I bet $20 over $25 on the flop all day for the sole reason that if the short stack ships it we can re-raise and get more value.

#12 trystero

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Posted 10 August 2011 - 07:03 AM

What a strange way for him to play AcKc...

#13 TrueAce13

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Posted 10 August 2011 - 12:13 PM

when we raise flop, i don't think we can ever fold...especially since we have a set!
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#14 donk4life

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Posted 10 August 2011 - 12:49 PM

Yeah I guess I'm missing something here. We have 3 of the same numbers, and two of them are disguised!

View Postakashenk, on 02 August 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

I don't mind folding out hands we beat.

#15 XXEddie

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Posted 10 August 2011 - 03:02 PM

I think the reason some people are saying fold is because UTGs line look super strong.If UTG had c-bet, I'd be fine getting it in.If UTG 3-bets post flop, I'd be fine getting it in. However, when villain check, flat a bet and shove and then shoves over the top of the 3-bet it looks really strong.

#16 trystero

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Posted 10 August 2011 - 05:04 PM

his line should always be a set of queens. so tilting

#17 KingJames

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Posted 10 August 2011 - 05:08 PM

View Posttrystero, on Wednesday, August 10th, 2011, 7:04 PM, said:

his line should always be a set of queens. so tilting
The other night at a home game it was a 3-way pot and on the flop it was 9TJ and it went check, bet, call, c-raise, call call (good game I know)the turn come a Q and the flop raiser c.f's 87 after the middle guys shoves and the button callsJ6 vs AJhe then tilts really hard for making the right play but being wrong this one time out of 50 or whatev... made me lol
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#18 XXEddie

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Posted 10 August 2011 - 05:09 PM

View PostKingJames, on Wednesday, August 10th, 2011, 7:08 PM, said:

The other night at a home game it was a 3-way pot and on the flop it was 9TJ and it went check, bet, call, c-raise, call call (good game I know)the turn come a Q and the flop raiser c.f's 87 after the middle guys shoves and the button callsJ6 vs AJhe then tilts really hard for making the right play but being wrong this one time out of 50 or whatev... made me lol
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#19 KingJames

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Posted 10 August 2011 - 07:24 PM

View PostXXEddie, on Wednesday, August 10th, 2011, 7:09 PM, said:

Omg was this Monday? I sincerely regret not going.
yeah we played 25nl 8 handed with about $1k on the tablemany many $250+ potsI think I won $5 :club:#awinsawin
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#20 Ninja Ace

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Posted 11 August 2011 - 01:55 PM

is this another one of those hands where people pretend they can fold flopped sets?
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